Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: Old Concerns, New Challenges

The paper addresses some important dilemmas and factors determining the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). According to the author, in the coming years the ECB’s monetary policy will to a large extent depend on how the ongoing financial crisis affects Europe and the world at large. At this point, it is too early to offer an evaluation of how this policy may change, Wojtyna says. The article attempts to answer a number of questions related to the ECB’s monetary policy. One question is whether or not an evaluation of the effects of the bank’s policy should take into account some general institutional frameworks. Second, did the ECB do the right thing adopting a specific strategy for its monetary policy? Third, to what extent has the Taylor rule proved to be useful in the assessment of the restrictiveness of the ECB’s monetary policy? The Taylor rule, proposed by U.S. economist John B. Taylor in 1993, is a rule that stipulates how much the central bank should change the nominal interest rate in response to divergences of actual GDP from potential GDP and of actual inflation rates from target inflation rates. According to Wojtyna, the effects of the ECB’s policy should be clearly differentiated from the effects of the Economic and Monetary Union as a whole. Second, the notion of “ECB policy” is broader than the term “monetary policy” with regard to the European Central Bank, the author says. Third, it is necessary to draw a distinction between various types of monetary policy depending on their scope, Wojtyna notes. The paper also discusses the latest research on the institutional environment of monetary policy and focuses on selected disputed issues involving the monetary policy strategy adopted by the ECB

The Theoretical Aspect of the Relationship Between Institutional Change, Economic Policy and Growth

The paper examines the latest trends in theoretical research into possible interactions between institutional change and economic policy in the process of growth. Even though the article focuses on changes in the theoretical approach to economic growth and development, the author analyzes these issues in combination with actual economic processes. New trends and processes that have taken place over the past decade or so have led to radical changes in economic theory. This is primarily because the previously used and recommended tools were inefficient. The author describes past experiences that defy traditional interpretation and call for a more adequate approach. The article shows that institutional change is seen as an important factor not only in development economics, but also in empirical studies of economic growth conducted as part of mainstream economics. The author’s analysis of the current stage of research shows that, contrary to expectations, the differences between economic policy and institutional change are still unclear; they are mostly intuitive and arbitrary in nature, and the terms themselves are either imprecise or, in some cases, left completely undefined. This means that researchers have insufficiently examined the complementariness, substitutability and relative autonomy of institutions with regard to economic policy, the author concludes. Consequently, in the coming years, those conducting research into economic growth should analyze the role of institutions and economic policy with greater precision, Wojtyna says

Internal and External Determinants of Great Britain 's Economic Policy

Analysis of the economic policy distinguishing among its internal and external determinants is most useful in the case of Great Britain. This results mainly from a superior character of equilibrium in the balance of payments in the structure of objectives in the post-war economic policy.Zadanie pt. „Digitalizacja i udostępnienie w Cyfrowym Repozytorium Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego kolekcji czasopism naukowych wydawanych przez Uniwersytet Łódzki” nr 885/P-DUN/2014 zostało dofinansowane ze środków MNiSW w ramach działalności upowszechniającej nauk

Macroeconomic Policy in the Business Cycle - New Theoretical Currents

Over the past thirty years economists’ conviction that macroeconomic policy can be used as an instrument helping to mitigate cyclical fluctuations waned significantly. This phenomenon was related to both theoretical considerations and economic practice. Nevertheless, in recent years a number of major developments in the world economy brought about a revival of economists’ interest in efficiency of anti-cyclical policy. These factors have been introduced in the first part of the study. The second part presents conclusions from studies of cyclical fluctuations. It takes into account controversies concerning both the nature of dependencies between cyclical fluctuations and long-term growth, and business cycle developments in advanced economies (especially the United States and Japan). The third part of the study tackles the rather radical change in views on the efficiency of fiscal policy, which has been seen lately. It presents alternative theoretical approaches allowing to analyse short-term effects of that policy and arguments for and against discretional decisions and policy rules

Emerging Market Economies in the Face of a Financial Crisis: Resilience or Vulnerability?

The paper is concerned with selected aspects oftheoretical and empirical analysis that help better understand the role of factors determining the resilience of medium-developed countries to financial crises. The analysis is made in the context of the latest crisis, which began in highly developed economies. The second part of the paper focuses on some widely disputed issues involving a theoretical explanation of the causes behind the latest crisis. Even though, in the case of emerging market economies, the original causes behind the crisis can be treated as external ones, Wojtyna says, they need to be scrutinized because of the interaction between the financial sector and the real economy. This interaction is similar in both medium-developed and highly developed countries, according to the author. Part 3 focuses on global imbalances and their role in transmitting the crisis to and from medium-developed countries. This trend is linked with the wider problem of the costs and benefits of financial globalization and the decoupling hypothesis debated in the context of business cycles in highly and medium-developed economies. Part 4 discusses the results of empirical studies designed to check the importance of factors determining the resilience of medium-developed countries to the latest crisis. A more detailed evaluation of the resilience of emerging market economies to the latest crisis could be made after anti-crisis measures taken by governments and central banks in highly developed countries cease to influence these countries’ economies, Wojtyna says. Preliminary findings in this area are encouraging for medium-developed countries, he adds. According to the author, changes in macroeconomic policy as well as structural and institutional changes carried out in response to previous crises have significantly reduced medium-developed countries’ vulnerability to global crises

Central Banks After the Crisis: Is the Direct Inflation Targeting Strategy in Need of Institutional Changes?

The article looks at whether and to what extent criticism is justified with regard to monetary policy in Poland in the context of the ongoing debate on the causes, course and implications of the global financial and economic crisis. Another aim is to determine to what extent the proposed adjustments in monetary policy concern the institutional aspect of the direct inflation targeting strategy. The author discusses proposals to increase the inflation target and replace the direct inflation targeting strategy with the so-called price-level targeting strategy or the nominal GDP targeting strategy. The general conclusion from the article is that, until broader dilemmas are resolved concerning the optimal role of supervisory, regulatory and macro-prudential functions in the institutional structure of the economy, any attempts at replacing the direct inflation targeting strategy with alternative strategies would be uncalled-for, the author says, regardless of the purported advantages of these alternative strategies highlighted by their advocates.Artykuł ma charakter przeglądowy. Jego celem jest, po pierwsze, próba pokazania – w świetle dyskusji toczącej się wokół przyczyn, przebiegu i skutków obecnego kryzysu – czy i w jakim stopniu uzasadnione są zarzuty formułowane pod adresem polityki pieniężnej. Po drugie, celem jest sprecyzowanie, w jakim zakresie proponowane korekty dotyczą instytucjonalnego wymiaru strategii BCI. Rozważone zostaną propozycje zastąpienia jej strategią celu w postaci stabilizowania poziomu cen (price-level targeting), strategią celu dotyczącego nominalnego PKB (nominal GDP targeting) oraz podwyższenia celu inflacyjnego. Z przeprowadzonej analizy płynie ogólny wniosek, że dopóki nie zostaną rozwiązane szersze dylematy dotyczące optymalnego umiejscowienia funkcji nadzorczych, regulacyjnych i makroostrożnościowych w instytucjonalnej strukturze gospodarki, nieuzasadnione byłyby próby zastąpienia strategii bezpośredniego celu inflacyjnego omówionymi w artykule alternatywnymi rozwiązaniami, niezależnie od zalet wskazywanych przez ich zwolenników

Theoretical Controversies about the Middle-Income Trap Concept

This review article attempts to assess to what extent the middle income trap (MIT) concept sheds a genuinely new light on complex determinants of economic growth and to what extent it merely offers a new, more attractive form of presenting fairly well-known ways of analyzing processes of growth and development. The discussion of different interpretations of the concept’s essence as well as its links with important strands of research into economic growth and development leads to three main conclusions: a) despite its intriguing name, the MIT concept can hardly be regarded as a separate subject of analysis that significantly extends beyond a traditional framework of research on growth. In particular, the present world crisis has significantly increased the concept’s universal character, reducing its applicability to specific dilemmas faced by middle-income countries; b) by strongly emphasizing a necessary shift from a growth model based on low labor costs to a model based on a process of generating domestic innovations, the MIT concept attaches less importance to other groups of factors (quality of institutions, optimal role of the state and of the economy’s openness, degree of the politicization of the economy, macroeconomic and macrofinancial stability) the interaction of which determines the rate at which enterprises build their competitive advantages; c) perception of risk that a country will enter the MIT situation is strongly linked to changes in the income position of various social groups. A growing polarization of incomes means that some social groups are subject to protracted stagnation in their real wages, which may lead them to confuse their own individual income traps with a trap concerning the whole economy.Celem artykułu, który ma charakter przeglądowy, jest próba pokazania, czy i w jakim stopniu koncepcja pułapki średniego poziomu rozwoju rzuca rzeczywiście nowe światło na skomplikowane uwarunkowania wzrostu gospodarczego, a w jakim jest jedynie sposobem przedstawienia pod nową, bardziej atrakcyjną nazwą problemu, który jest przedmiotem analiz podejmowanych przez inne, prowadzone równolegle nurty badań. Omówione w artykule kontrowersje dotyczące zarówno samej istoty koncepcji pułapki średniego poziomu rozwoju, jak i jej związków z niektórymi ważnymi kierunkami badań nad wzrostem gospodarczym pozwoliły na sformułowanie trzech głównych wniosków: a) Mimo intrygującej nazwy, hipotezę „pułapki” trudno uznać za odrębny przedmiot badań, który wykracza poza tradycyjny obszar zainteresowań teorii wzrostu i rozwoju gospodarczego. Obecny kryzys światowy spowodował, że pojęcie “pułapki” nabrało bardziej uniwersalnego charakteru. Utraciło ono swoją wyrazistość i tym samym zmniejszyła się jego przydatność w analizowaniu dylematów specyficznych dla krajów na średnim poziomie rozwoju; b) Poprzez silne akcentowanie konieczności przejścia od modelu wzrostu opartego na niskich kosztach pracy do modelu opartego na generowaniu krajowych innowacji, hipoteza „pułapki” osłabia siłą rzeczy zainteresowanie innymi grupami czynników (jakością instytucji, optymalnym zakresem roli państwa i otwartości gospodarki, stopniem upolitycznienia procesów ekonomicznych, stabilnością makroekonomiczną i finansową), od interakcji których zależy stopniowe budowanie przez przedsiębiorstwa przewag konkurencyjnych; c) Postrzeganie ryzyka znalezienia się kraju w pułapce średniego poziomu rozwoju pozostaje w ścisłym związku ze zmianami zachodzącymi w sytuacji dochodowej poszczególnych grup społecznych. Rosnąca polaryzacja dochodów oznacza, że pewne grupy społeczne odnotowują dosyć długotrwałą stagnację płac realnych, co może skłaniać je do utożsamiania własnej “pułapki” dochodowej z “pułapką” odnoszącą się do całej gospodarki

Central Bank in the Context of Agency Theory

The article is devoted to possibilities of applying agency theory in research into efficiency of institutional solutions in central banks. Its first part presents factors due to which, like in many other cases of agency relationship, it is also in reference to central bank that drawing up appropriate practical solutions turns out to be a very complicated task giving rise giving rise to alot of controversy and even political emotions. The second part of the article is focused on those tenets of theoretical research, which while treating the central bank as an agent aim at an optimum contract allowing central bank independence to be tied with requirements for its democratic accountability. In the third part, emphasis is put on agency relations within the central bank. It discusses the results of numerous studies of various aspects of efficiency of making central banks’ decisions by committees. In conclusions of this article several remarks are made about possibilities of applying agency theory in analyses of institutional solutions adopted in the National Bank of Poland