Uncertainty propagation in atmospheric dispersion models for radiological emergencies in the pre- and early release phase: summary of case studies

In the framework of the European project CONFIDENCE, Work Package 1 (WP1) focused on the uncertainties in the pre- and early phase of a radiological emergency, when environmental observations are not available and the assessment of the environmental and health impact of the accident largely relies on atmospheric dispersion modelling. The latter is subject to large uncertainties coming from, in particular, meteorological and release data. In WP1, several case studies were identified, including hypothetical accident scenarios in Europe and the Fukushima accident, for which participants propagated input uncertainties through their atmospheric dispersion and subsequent dose models. This resulted in several ensembles of results (consisting of tens to hundreds of simulations) that were compared to each other and to radiological observations (in the Fukushima case). These ensembles were analysed in order to answer questions such as: among meteorology, source term and model-related uncertainties, which are the predominant ones? Are uncertainty assessments very different between the participants and can this inter-ensemble variability be explained? What are the optimal ways of characterizing and presenting the uncertainties? Is the ensemble modelling sufficient to encompass the observations, or are there sources of uncertainty not (sufficiently) taken into account? This paper describes the case studies of WP1 and presents some illustrations of the results, with a summary of the main findings

Perda auditiva sensorioneural no lúpus eritematoso sistêmico: relato de três casos Sensorineural hearing loss in systemic lupus erythematosus: report of three cases

INTRODUÇÃO: O Lúpus Eritematoso Sistêmico (LES) é uma doença sistêmica do tecido conectivo, de etiologia desconhecida, provavelmente multifatorial. Acomete principalmente o sexo feminino podendo afetar múltiplos órgãos, dentre eles o sistema auditivo. A orelha interna pode ser lesada por diversos mecanismos auto-imunes, sendo a manifestação mais freqüente a disacusia sensorioneural flutuante, geralmente bilateral, rapidamente progressiva e com boa responsividade a imunossupressores. OBJETIVO: O objetivo deste trabalho é relatar três casos de disacusia de etiologia auto-imune, enfocando formas de acometimento e manifestações clínicas, bem como correlacionando o efeito ototóxico da cloroquina - droga empregada no controle do LES - com a perda auditiva. CONCLUSÃO: As perdas auditivas sensorioneurais súbitas, rapidamente progressivas ou flutuantes, podem ocorrer em pacientes com doença auto-imune e devem ser sempre lembradas nos casos de disacusia sem causa aparente.<br>INTRODUCTION: The Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) is a systemic disease of the connective tissue, with unknown etiology, probably associated to multiple events. It is a multiple organs disease that affects mainly women. The inner ear can be damaged by several immunopathogenic mechanisms, and the most common symptom is a progressive sensorineural hearing loss, generally bilateral, with good response to immunossupression. AIM: The purpose of this article is to report three cases of women suffering from SLE and hearing loss and to establish a link between the autoimmune and the vascular mechanisms of the disease, also focusing attention on the ototoxicity due to chloroquine applied during the treatment of SLE. CONCLUSION: Sudden or fluctuant sensorineural hearing loss may affect patients with autoimmune disease, so it must always be taken into account when dealing with patients suffering from hearing loss without any apparent cause