Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models

We use a micro-founded macroeconometric modeling framework to investigate the design of monetary policy when the central bank faces uncertainty about the true structure of the economy. We apply Bayesian methods to estimate the parameters of the baseline specification using postwar U.S. data, and then determine the policy under commitment that maximizes household welfare. We find that the performance of the optimal policy is closely matched by a simple operational rule that focuses solely on stabilizing nominal wage inflation. Furthermore, this simple wage stabilization rule is remarkably robust to uncertainty about the model parameters and to various assumptions regarding the nature and incidence of the innovations. However, the characteristics of optimal policy are very sensitive to the specification of the wage contracting mechanism, thereby highlighting the importance of additional research regarding the structure of labor markets and wage determination.

The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty

We investigate the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. We identify the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty: such rules respond to the one-year ahead inflation forecast and to the current output gap, and incorporate a substantial degree of policy inertia. In contrast, rules with longer forecast horizons are less robust and are prone to generating indeterminacy. In light of these results, we identify a robust benchmark rule that performs very well in all five models over a wide range of policy preferences JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58, E61

Antiparasitic activity of chicory (Cichorium intybus) and its natural bioactive compounds in livestock: a review

Increasing drug resistance in gastrointestinal (GI) parasites of livestock and concerns about chemical residues in animal products and the environment are driving the development of alternative control strategies that are less reliant on the use of synthetic drugs. An increasingly investigated approach is the use of bioactive forages with antiparasitic properties as part of the animal’s diet (nutraceuticals) or as potential sources of novel, natural parasiticides. Chicory (Cichorium intybus) is a multi-purpose crop and one of the most promising bioactive forages in temperate regions, and numerous in vivo trials have explored its potential against parasitic nematodes in livestock. However, it is unclear whether chicory can induce a direct and broad activity against various GI parasites in different livestock species, and the levels of chicory in the diet that are required to exert an efficient antiparasitic effect. Moreover, the mechanisms leading to the reported parasiticidal activity of chicory are still largely unknown, and its bioactive phytochemicals have only recently been investigated. In this review, we summarise the progress in the study of the antiparasitic activity of chicory and its natural bioactive compounds against GI parasites in livestock, through examination of the published literature. The available evidence indicates that feeding chicory can reduce faecal egg counts and/or worm burdens of abomasal nematodes, but not infections with intestinal worms, in ruminants. Highly chicory-rich diets (≥ 70% of chicory dry matter in the diet) may be necessary to directly affect abomasal parasitism. Chicory is known to synthesise several bioactive compounds with potential antiparasitic activity, but most research has been devoted to the role of sesquiterpene lactones (SL). Recent in vitro studies have confirmed direct and potent activity of SL-rich extracts from chicory against different GI helminths of livestock. Chicory SL have also been reported to exhibit antimalarial properties and its potential antiprotozoal activity in livestock remains to be evaluated. Furthermore, the detailed identification of the main antiparasitic metabolites of chicory and their pharmacokinetics need further confirmation. Research gaps and perspectives on the potential use of chicory as a nutraceutical forage and a source of bioactive compounds for parasite control in livestock are discussed

Inside C3: Portrait of a Megachurch

Our project centers on C3 NYC, a popular evangelical megachurch that has exploded in popularity despite allegations of abuse and financial impropriety currently swirling around it. Through photos and an accompanying audio piece that features voices from current and former members of the church, our piece seeks to go inside of C3 https://audioproject.wordpress.com

Turbo-discharging turbocharged internal combustion engines

Turbo-discharging is a novel approach that can better utilize the energy recoverable by a turbine (or series of turbines) mounted in the exhaust flow of internal combustion engines. The recovery of blowdown pulse energy in isolation of displacement pulse energy allows the discharging (depressurization) of the exhaust system to reduce engine pumping work and improve engine fuel economy. This is a novel approach to air system optimization that has previously been studied for naturally aspirated engines. However, to be successful, turbo-discharging should be applicable to turbocharged engines, as downsizing is a promising direction for future powertrain systems. This study uses one-dimensional gas dynamics modelling to explore the effect of turbo-discharging on a turbocharged gasoline engine, particularly focusing on the interaction with the turbocharging system. The results show that the peak engine torque is increased at low to mid speeds with high speed torque slightly reduced due to restrictions in engine breathing with low lift exhaust valves. The engine peak torque as a function of speed with a larger turbocharger and turbo-discharging was comparable to that of the smaller turbocharger without turbo-discharging. Fuel economy improvements were evident over most part-load regions of the engine map, with peak values varying from 2 to 7% depending on the baseline engine air system strategy. Hot trapped residual mass was consistently reduced across a large fraction of the engine map, with the exception of high power conditions, where the valve pressure drop effect dominated. This is expected to enable spark advance and further fuel economy benefit. The results from this study are promising and show that the use of some of the available exhaust gas energy for turbo-discharging in preference to turbocharging can have a positive effect on both part-load and full-load engine performance. There remains significant potential for further optimization with application of variable valve actuation and turbocharger control systems (for example, variable geometry turbines)

MASE: A New Data--Reduction Pipeline for the Magellan Echellette Spectrograph

We introduce a data reduction package written in Interactive Data Language (IDL) for the Magellan Echellete Spectrograph (MAGE). MAGE is a medium-resolution (R ~4100), cross-dispersed, optical spectrograph, with coverage from ~3000-10000 Angstroms. The MAGE Spectral Extractor (MASE) incorporates the entire image reduction and calibration process, including bias subtraction, flat fielding, wavelength calibration, sky subtraction, object extraction and flux calibration of point sources. We include examples of the user interface and reduced spectra. We show that the wavelength calibration is sufficient to achieve ~5 km/s RMS accuracy and relative flux calibrations better than 10%. A light-weight version of the full reduction pipeline has been included for real-time source extraction and signal-to-noise estimation at the telescope.Comment: 10 pages (ApJ format), accepted PAS

Chlamydia pneumoniae infection of neuronal cells induces changes in calcium-associated gene expression consistent with Alzheimer’s disease

Background and Significance: Previous studies have shown that cells infected with Chlamydia pneumoniae (Cpn) exhibit altered gene expression consistent with that observed in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Furthermore, AD neurodegeneration has been linked to dysregulation of intracellular calcium and calcium-related processes. Therefore, we hypothesize that one mechanism by which pathogenesis evolves in AD is through infection-induced changes in expression of calcium-related genes. Objectives: To determine if infection of neuronal cells with Cpn alters expression of calciumrelated genes associated with neurodegeneration. Methods: SK-N-MC neuronal cells were infected with Cpn (AR39 strain; MOI=1) for 3 to 72 hours, then calcium-related genes were screened with real-time PCR microarrays (SABiosciences PAHS-066). Results: Following infection, approximately 29 genes displayed regulation changes of 2-fold or greater, including genes pertaining to neurotransmitters, cell cycle and immune regulators, and other calcium-responsive elements. Genes involved in synaptic function and memory such as AREG, ATF3, EGR2 and GEM were initially up regulated, then fell to baseline or below by 72 hours. Many of the affected genes have been implicated in AD pathogenesis. Conclusions: Our data suggest that Cpn alters calcium-related gene expression in host neurons consistent with calcium dysfunction previously documented in AD. This study may elucidate how, in its effort to establish a favorable environment, Cpn could affect cellular processes that contribute to AD pathogenesis.https://digitalcommons.pcom.edu/posters/1006/thumbnail.jp