Strategic Culture and China: IR Theory Versus the Fortune Cookie?; Strategic Insights, v. 6, issue 10 (November 2005)

This article appeared in Strategic Insights, v.6, issue 10 (October 2005)Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Strategic Effects of Conflict with Iraq: Australia and New Zealand

The author has been asked to analyze four issues: the position that key states in their region are taking on U.S. military action against Iraq; the role of America in the region after the war with Iraq; the nature of security partnerships in the region after the war with Iraq; and the effect that war with Iraq will have on the war on terrorism in the region. Conclusions reached are: Australia is one of the staunchest supporters of U.S.-led military action against Iraq. Canberra has been very willing to provide combat troops to fight alongside U.S. forces. Australia supports the U.S. action with or without U.N. approval, although significant unease and dissent are also evident in the country. Australia is confident about the strength of its security relationship with the United States. New Zealand is one of the most circumspect countries in the world regarding the merits of a war with Iraq. New Zealand is willing to contribute noncombat military and humanitarian support in the closing stages of a conflict or after a conflict only if the U.N. sanctions the war. New Zealand remains ambivalent about its security ties with the United States.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1798/thumbnail.jp

China and North Korea: From Comrades-In-Arms to Allies at Arm\u27s Length

At first, it might not seem surprising to have a formal military alliance that has endured more than 4 decades between two communist neighbors, China and North Korea. After all, their armed forces fought shoulder-to-shoulder in the Korean War 50 years ago. However, Beijing\u27s ties to Pyongyang have weakened considerably over time, and China now has much better and stronger relations with the free market democracy of South Korea than it does with the totalitarian, centrally planned economy of North Korea. In many ways Pyongyang has become a Cold War relic, strategic liability, and monumental headache for Beijing. Nevertheless, the China-North Korea alliance remains formally in effect, and Beijing continues to provide vital supplies of food and fuel to the brutal and repressive Pyongyang regime. Since the ongoing nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula, which emerged in October 2002, the United States and other countries have pinned high hopes on Chinese efforts to moderate and reason with North Korea. Beijing\u27s initiative to bring Pyongyang to the table in the so-called Six-Party Talks and host them seems to substantiate these hopes. Yet, as the author points out, it would be unrealistic to raise one\u27s expectations over what China might accomplish vis-à-vis North Korea. Beijing plays a useful and important role on the Korean Peninsula, but in the final analysis, the author argues that there are significant limitations on China\u27s influence both in terms of what actions Beijing would be prepared to take and what impact this pressure can have. If this analysis is correct, then North Korea is unlikely to mend its ways anytime soon.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1772/thumbnail.jp

North Korea\u27s Strategic Intentions

Dr. Andrew Scobell examines the topic of Pyongyang\u27s strategic intentions. He first identifies a broad spectrum of expert views and distills this wisdom into three packages of possible strategic intentions. He then sets out to test which package appears to reflect actual North Korean policy. While he opines that one is more likely than the others, he concludes that it is impossible to say with certainty which package most closely resembles reality. As a result, he suggests that further probing of Pyongyang\u27s intentions is advisable.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1738/thumbnail.jp

China and Strategic Culture

The author examines the impact of strategic culture on 21st century China. He contends that the People\u27s Republic of China\u27s security policies and its tendency to use military force are influenced not only by elite understandings of China\u27s own strategic tradition, but also by their understandings of the strategic cultures of other states. Gaining a fuller appreciation for how Chinese strategists view the United States and Japan, our key ally in the Asia-Pacific, will better enable us to assess regional and global security issues.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1821/thumbnail.jp