Fertility and union dissolution in Brazil: an example of multi-process modelling using the Demographic and Health Survey calendar data

This study examines the union and conception histories of Brazilian women aged 15-49 using the 1996 Demographic and Health Survey’s calendar data. The aim of the paper is twofold: firstly to explore the use of union histories in the DHS calendar data, which have not yet been used for union dynamics studies and secondly to secondly to analyse the relationship between union instability and fertility in Brazil which has been long understudied. Using the example of Brazil it investigates the potential strengths and biases of this data source. In particular it analyses the impact of union dissolution on fertility in Brazil using multiprocess event history analysis techniques as developed by Lillard (1993). This type of methodology has been widely used for the analyses of developed countries data. However, it has not been explored for developing countries mainly due to the lack of data. The paper will demonstrate the positive effect of union instability on fertility.aml, Brazil, calendar data, DHS, fertility, multiprocess model, union dissolution

Fertility and union dissolution in Brazil: an example of multi-process modelling using the Demographic and Health Survey calendar data.

This study examines the union and conception histories of Brazilian women aged 15-49 using the 1996 Demographic and Health Survey’s calendar data. The aim of the paper is twofold: firstly to explore the use of union histories in the DHS calendar data, which have not yet been used for union dynamics studies and secondly to secondly to analyse the relationship between union instability and fertility in Brazil which has been long understudied. Using the example of Brazil it investigates the potential strengths and biases of this data source. In particular it analyses the impact of union dissolution on fertility in Brazil using multiprocess event history analysis techniques as developed by Lillard (1993). This type of methodology has been widely used for the analyses of developed countries data. However, it has not been explored for developing countries mainly due to the lack of data. The paper will demonstrate the positive effect of union instability on fertility.

The proximate determinants of fertility and birth intervals in Egypt

In this paper we use calendar data from the 2000 Egyptian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to assess the determinants of birth interval length among women who are in union. We make use of the well-known model of the proximate determinants of fertility, and take advantage of the fact that the DHS calendar data provide month-by-month data on contraceptive use, breastfeeding and post-partum amenorrhoea, which are the most important proximate determinants among women in union. One aim of the analysis is to see whether the calendar data are sufficiently detailed to account for all variation among individual women in birth interval duration, in that once they are controlled, the effect of background social, economic and cultural variables is not statistically significant. The results suggest that this is indeed the case, especially after a random effect term to account for the unobserved proximate determinants is included in the model. Birth intervals are determined mainly by the use of modern methods of contraception (the IUD being more effective than the pill). Breastfeeding and post-partum amenorrhoea both inhibit conception, and the effect of breastfeeding remains even after the period of amenorrhoea has ended.calendar data, contraceptive use, Egypt, fertility, proximate determinants, survival analysis

Unusually small sex differentials in mortality of Israeli Jews: What does the structure of causes of death tell us?

Since the establishment of Israel sex differentials in life expectancy at birth exhibited by Israeli Jews have been very low in comparison to other developed countries as a result of relatively high male and relatively low female life expectancy. To advance understanding of this phenomenon this paper explores cause-specific contributions to the difference in life expectancy between Israeli Jews and Western countries, for each sex, and to sex differentials in mortality in both populations. We quantify the major types of behaviourally induced mortality to show that it is especially low among Israeli Jewish males. We also investigate mortality in certain subgroups of Israeli Jews to gain a better understanding of female mortality in this population.Israel, Jews, migration, mortality, sex differentials

An editorial on plagiarism

In January this year, we were confronted with a case of plagiarism. One paper that had been submitted last year by a certain person turned out to be written by three other persons. It was presented by the three true authors at a conference in 2010, where they distributed copies of their paper. One of the reviewers of the paper informed us about that fact. We asked the three authors for a copy, which turned out to be identical with the submission, except for a few minor details. When confronted with these facts, the person who had submitted the paper was unable to give us a satisfactory explanation. This is a case of serious scientific misconduct. The editors and the publisher of Demographic Research cannot and will not accept any form of plagiarism. Nor will we accept any other form of misconduct in science, including fabrication, falsification, or other practices that seriously deviate from those that are commonly accepted within the scientific community for proposing, conducting, or reporting research. With Long et al. ("Responding to possible plagiarism", Science 6 March 2009), we are of the opinion that the responsibility for research integrity ultimately lies in the hands of the scientific community: educators, students, authors, and those who provide peer reviews. Journal editors must take appropriate action and verify the originality of suspected manuscripts. The Office of Research Integrity provides useful guidelines (http://ori.dhhs.gov/). We have decided that any future submission to Demographic Research that lists the plagiarist as an author or co-author will be rejected automatically.

The Democratic Republic of Congo armed conflict (1998 – 2004): assessing excess mortality based on factual and counter-factual projection scenarios

To document the scale and scope of the 1998–2004 armed conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the current study combined four different data sources: the 1984 DRC Population Census, the 1995 and 2001 DRC Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and the 2007 DRC Demographic and Health Survey, to reconstruct missing demographic estimates and assess the level of excess mortality associated with the conflict, going from 1998 to 2007. Findings from this study do not corroborate previous estimates on the same armed conflict and for the same period: these range from excess mortality of 5.4 million population according to Coghlan et al. (2009), to 0.2 million according to Lambert and Lohlé-Tart (2008). The cohort component projection method as used in this study is a cost-effective approach as it allows the analysis of a complex issue, that is excess mortality associated with an armed conflict, with relatively modest resources. This study highlights that the choice of baseline rates is a key factor in determining the level of excess mortality when data points are scarce. This study produced a range of plausible estimates of excess mortality between 1 and 1.9 million population rather than a single best estimate. The range of excess mortality produced in this study is narrower and less extreme when compared to previous studies on the same conflict. As a further contribution to the debate in this field, the current study advocates producing a range of plausible estimates rather than a single best estimate of excess mortality. This is justified by the uncertainties associated with the scarcity of the data, the statistical modelling and the overall analysis process

Mortality decline by cause in urban and rural England and Wales, 1851-1910

This paper presents a new analysis of the contribution of particular causes of death to the decline of mortality in England and Wales between 1851 and 1910. We examine deaths in a set of 588 registration areas based on the registration districts but amalgamated where necessary so that the boundaries of the areas are consistent over time. The deaths are classified by cause, and the paper discusses changes in the classification of causes of death between 1851 and 1910 and attempts to use as congruent a set of classes as is possible. The results show that declines in deaths from waterborne diseases and scarlet fever had their greatest impact between the 1860s and the 1880s, pulmonary tuberculosis declined steadily throughout the period, and diseases of the lungs were important between the 1890s and 1901-1910. The paper then examines cause-specific death rates in urban and rural areas, using definitions of ‘urban’ based on both population density and settlement size. The results are largely insensitive to the definition of what constitutes an urban area. They reveal that mortality from typhus/typhoid and pulmonary tuberculosis declined in parallel in urban and rural areas. Mortality from scarlet fever converged to very low levels in all areas by 1901-1910. There were, however, differences between town and countryside in the pace and timing of the decline of mortality from diarrhoeal diseases. Where there were differences, it was often the smaller urban areas that stood apart: there was no gradation from rural areas through small towns to larger towns. The paper concludes with some remarks on the implications of our findings for the role of public investment in mortality decline

Designing neural networks for manufacturing process control systems

The design of neural networks for the control of discrete manufacturing processes is addressed. Rather than treating the networks as adaptive black boxes, an architecture that links the weights associated with the nodes and thus allows the relationships and internal structure to be tightly constrained is introduced. The constrained search space gives greater confidence in the internal representations that have been induced by the training set and therefore about the correct behavior of the network between the given limits. The method is illustrated by applying it to the dispensing of adhesive

Combining work and child care: The experiences of mothers in Accra, Ghana

Work-family research has focused predominantly on Western women. Yet the forms of economic labour in which women are typically involved and the meaning of motherhood are context-specific. This paper aims to explore the experience of combining economic activity and child care of mothers with young children using urban Ghana as a case study. Semi-structured interviews (n=24) were conducted in three locations in the Accra Metropolitan Area. Transcripts were analysed using the general inductive approach. The results found women’s experience of role conflict to be bi-directional. With regard to role enhancement, economic activity allowed women to provide materially for their children. The combination of work and child care had negative consequences for women’s wellbeing. This research questions policy makers’ strategy of frequently targeting women in their roles either as generators of income, or as the primary care-takers of children by highlighting the reality of women’s simultaneous performance of these roles