Evidentialism and the Numbers Game

In this paper I introduce an objection to normative evidentialism about reasons for belief. The objection arises from difficulties that evidentialism has with explaining our reasons for belief in unstable belief contexts with a single fixed point. I consider what other kinds of reasons for belief are relevant in such cases

Coupled Weather and Wildfire Behavior Modeling at Los Alamos: An Overview

Over the past two years, researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) have been engaged in coupled weather/wildfire modeling as part of a broader initiative to predict the unfolding of crisis events. Wildfire prediction was chosen for the following reasons: (1) few physics-based wild-fire prediction models presently exist; (2) LANL has expertise in the fields required to develop such a capability; and (3) the development of this predictive capability would be enhanced by LANL`s strength in high performance computing. Wildfire behavior models have historically been used to predict fire spread and heat release for a prescribed set of fuel, slope, and wind conditions (Andrews 1986). In the vicinity of a fire, however, atmospheric conditions are constantly changing due to non-local weather influences and the intense heat of the fire itself. This non- linear process underscores the need for physics-based models that treat the atmosphere-fire feedback. Actual wildfire prediction with full-physics models is both time-critical and computationally demanding, since it must include regional- to local-scale weather forecasting together with the capability to accurately simulate both intense gradients across a fireline, and atmosphere/fire/fuel interactions. Los Alamos has recently (January 1997) acquired a number of SGI/Cray Origin 2000 machines, each presently having 32 to 64 processors. These high performance computing systems are part of the Department of Energy`s Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI). While offering impressive performance now, upgrades to the system promise to deliver over 1 Teraflop (10(12) floating point operations per second) at peak performance before the turn of the century

Pediatric colloid cysts: a multinational, multicenter study. An IFNE-ISPN-ESPN collaboration

OBJECTIVE Colloid cysts (CCs) are rare at all ages, and particularly among children. The current literature on pediatric CC is limited, and often included in mixed adult/pediatric series. The goal of this multinational, multicenter study was to combine forces among centers and investigate the clinical course of pediatric CCs. METHODS A multinational, multicenter retrospective study was performed to attain a large sample size, focusing on CC diagnosis in patients younger than 18 years of age. Collected data included clinical presentation, radiological characteristics, treatment, and outcome. RESULTS One hundred thirty-four children with CCs were included. Patient age at diagnosis ranged from 2.4 to 18 years (mean 12.8 ± 3.4 years, median 13.2 years, interquartile range 10.3–15.4 years; 22% were \u3c 10 years of age). Twenty-two cases (16%) were diagnosed incidentally, including 48% of those younger than 10 years of age. Most of the other patients had symptoms related to increased intracranial pressure and hydrocephalus. The average follow-up duration for the entire group was 49.5 ± 45.8 months. Fifty-nine patients were initially followed, of whom 28 were eventually operated on at a mean of 19 ± 32 months later due to cyst growth, increasing hydrocephalus, and/or new symptoms. There was a clear correlation between larger cysts and symptomatology, acuteness of symptoms, hydrocephalus, and need for surgery. Older age was also associated with the need for surgery. One hundred three children (77%) underwent cyst resection, 60% using a purely endoscopic approach. There was 1 death related to acute hydrocephalus at presentation. Ten percent of operated patients had some form of complication, and 7.7% of operated cases required a shunt at some point during follow-up. Functional outcome was good; however, the need for immediate surgery was associated with educational limitations. Twenty operated cases (20%) experienced a recurrence of their CC at a mean of 38 ± 46 months after the primary surgery. The CC recurrence rate was 24% following endoscopic resection and 15% following open resections (p = 0.28). CONCLUSIONS CCs may present in all pediatric age groups, although most that are symptomatic present after the age of 10 years. Incidentally discovered cysts should be closely followed, as many may grow, leading to hydrocephalus and other new symptoms. Presentation of CC may be acute and may cause life-threatening conditions related to hydrocephalus, necessitating urgent treatment. The outcome of treated children with CCs is favorable

Fittingness, Value and trans-World Attitudes

Philosophers interested in the fitting attitude analysis of final value have devoted a great deal of attention to the wrong kind of reasons problem. This paper offers an example of the reverse difficulty, the wrong kind of value problem. This problem creates deeper challenges for the fitting attitude analysis and provides independent grounds for rejecting it, or at least for doubting seriously its correctness

A Short Refutation of Strict Normative Evidentialism

This paper shows that strict evidentialism about normative reasons for belief is inconsistent with taking truth to be the source of normative reasons for belief. It does so by showing that there are circumstances in which one can know what truth requires one to believe, yet still lack evidence for the contents of that belief

A Short Refutation of Strict Normative Evidentialism

This paper shows that strict evidentialism about normative reasons for belief is inconsistent with taking truth to be the source of normative reasons for belief. It does so by showing that there are circumstances in which one can know what truth requires one to believe, yet still lack evidence for the contents of that belief