THE BASEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO RISK-WEIGHTS AND EXTERNAL RATINGS: WHAT DO WE LEARN FROM BOND SPREADS?

The Basel Committee for Banking Supervision designed a system of risk weights (the so called standardised approach) to measure the riskiness of banksÂ’ loan portfolios. Its ability to adequately reflect risk is empirically investigated in this paper, through an analysis of the economic capital allocations implied in corporate bond spreads. This is based on a unique dataset of issuance spreads, ratings and other relevant bond variables (such as maturity, face value, time of issuance and currency of denomination) including 7,232 eurobonds issued mostly by Canadian, European, Japanese and U.S. companies during 1991-2003. Three main results emerge. First, the spread/rating relationship is strongly significant with spreads increasing when ratings worsen. Second, the estimated spreads per rating class indicate that the risk/rating relationship might be steeper than the one approved by the Basel Committee. Finally the difference between the spread/rating relation of banks and non-financial firms appears quite blurred and statistically questionable. Following this empirical evidence, we underline some adjustments in the standardised approach risk-weights that might be considered for the future versions of the Basel Accord.eurobonds, credit ratings, spreads, capital regulation, banks.

The Link between Default and Recovery Rates

This paper analyzes the association between aggregate default and recovery rates on credit assets, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. We examine recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2002. Our econometric univariate and multivariate models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities, with default rates playing a pivotal role. Such a link would bring about a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses as measured by some widespread credit risk models, and would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord. Our results have also important implications for investors in corporate bonds and bank loans, and for all markets (e.g., securitizations, credit derivatives) that depend on recovery rates as a key variable

The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence and Implications

This paper analyzes the association between aggregate default and recovery rates on credit assets, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. We examine recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2002. Our econometric univariate and multivariate models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities, with default rates playing a pivotal role. Such a link would bring about a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses as measured by some widespread credit risk models, and would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord. Our results have also important implications for investors in corporate bonds and bank loans, and for all markets (e.g., securitizations, credit derivatives, etc.) which depend on recovery rates as a key variable

The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Implications for Credit Risk Models and Procyclicality

This paper analyzes the impact of various assumptions about the association between aggregate default probabilities and the loss given default on bank loans and corporate bonds, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. Moreover, it simulates the effects on mandatory capital requirements like those proposed in 2001 by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. We present the analysis and results in four distinct sections. The first section examines the literature of the last three decades of the various structural-form, closed-form and other credit risk and portfolio credit value-at-risk (VaR) models and the way they explicitly or implicitly treat the recovery rate variable. Section 2 presents simulation results under three different recovery rate scenarios and examines the impact of these scenarios on the resulting risk measures: our results show a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses when recovery rates are stochastic and negatively correlated with default probabilities. In Section 3, we empirically examine the recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2000. We attempt to explain recovery rates by specifying a rather straightforward statistical least squares regression model. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities. Our econometric univariate and multivariate time series models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. Finally, in Section 4 we analyze how the link between default probability and recovery risk would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord, due to be released in 2002. We see that, if banks use their own estimates of LGD (as in the “advanced” IRB approach), an increase in the sensitivity of banks’ LGD due to the variation in PD over economic cycles is likely to follow. Our results have important implications for just about all portfolio credit risk models, for markets which depend on recovery rates as a key variable (e.g., securitizations, credit derivatives, etc.), for the current debate on the revised BIS guidelines for capital requirements on bank credit assets, and for investors in corporate bonds of all credit qualities

The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Implications for Credit Risk Models and Procyclicality

This paper analyzes the impact of various assumptions about the association between aggregate default probabilities and the loss given default on bank loans and corporate bonds, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. Moreover, it simulates the effects on mandatory capital requirements like those proposed in 2001 by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. We present the analysis and results in four distinct sections. The first section examines the literature of the last three decades of the various structural-form, closed-form and other credit risk and portfolio credit value-at-risk (VaR) models and the way they explicitly or implicitly treat the recovery rate variable. Section 2 presents simulation results under three different recovery rate scenarios and examines the impact of these scenarios on the resulting risk measures: our results show a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses when recovery rates are stochastic and negatively correlated with default probabilities. In Section 3, we empirically examine the recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2000. We attempt to explain recovery rates by specifying a rather straightforward statistical least squares regression model. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities. Our econometric univariate and multivariate time series models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. Finally, in Section 4 we analyze how the link between default probability and recovery risk would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord, due to be released in 2002. We see that, if banks use their own estimates of LGD (as in the “advanced” IRB approach), an increase in the sensitivity of banks’ LGD due to the variation in PD over economic cycles is likely to follow. Our results have important implications for just about all portfolio credit risk models, for markets which depend on recovery rates as a key variable (e.g., securitizations, credit derivatives, etc.), for the current debate on the revised BIS guidelines for capital requirements on bank credit assets, and for investors in corporate bonds of all credit qualities

The Link between Default and Recovery Rates

This paper analyzes the association between aggregate default and recovery rates on credit assets, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. We examine recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2002. Our econometric univariate and multivariate models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities, with default rates playing a pivotal role. Such a link would bring about a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses as measured by some widespread credit risk models, and would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord. Our results have also important implications for investors in corporate bonds and bank loans, and for all markets (e.g., securitizations, credit derivatives) that depend on recovery rates as a key variable

Spazio allo Spazio

“Spazio allo Spazio", active since 2010, involves students aged 5 to 20. This educational project was launched by a group of Italian teachers from the Lower Secondary School Fermi in Villasanta who believed Space exploration could be an efficient way to convey the idea that the extraordinary experience of the astronaut, who on the International Space Station must acquire new skills and be able to dominate a challenging and unpredictable context, similar to a disabled person's routine in daily life. This was a winning choice because gradually international institutions promoted similar initiatives. The central theme of space exploration is used to promote values of sustainability, equity and diversity, allowing students to become acquainted with the world of astronauts while facing subjects related to integration and disability. Several national and international universities and institutions, at the forefront of scientific research, have contributed to this project. The main topics of the project are: 1) Space exploration: the astronaut's experience is the starting point for lessons, cultural exchanges, lectures and interdisciplinary strategies to raise awareness about humans in space, the international cooperation for the International Space Station, physical training, technical, scientific and cultural preparation. 2) Career orientation: meetings with experts in different fields, from Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics to Arts and Physical Education, help students achieve better knowledge of themselves, their potential and limits acquiring skills in scientific research methodology in a multilingual environment. 3) Inclusion: as astronauts experience the limits of gravity and disability in Space, students can face their limits, through experiences of adapted physical activity, addressing issues related to the integration and insertion of people with different skills in school and society. 4) Team building: starting from the example of collaboration which takes place in space missions and scientific research, students are encouraged to experience teamwork. This is true for the teachers too, thanks to the strengthening of cooperative teaching, in the sharing of resources and good practices as well as in the implementation of innovative forms of communication and multimedia documentation. The project aims at making students able to face new and more advanced educational challenges and cognitive objectives, developing work strategies by transferring already tested approaches and processes to new situations. This is noticeable in the more self-conscious choices that former students have made about their future. An example is illustrated by an ex-student who directed his training path in the Science and Engineering fiel