Commercially Hosted Government Payloads: Lessons from Recent Programs

In a commercially hosted operational mode, a scientific instrument or operational device is attached to a spacecraft but operates independently from the spacecraft s primary mission. Despite the expected benefits of this arrangement, there are few examples of hosted payload programs actually being executed by government organizations. The lack of hosted payload programs is largely driven by programmatic challenges, both real and perceived, rather than by technical challenges. Partly for these reasons, NASA has not sponsored a hosted payload program, in spite of the benefits and visible community interest in doing so. In the interest of increasing the use of hosted payloads across the space community, this paper seeks to alleviate concerns about hosted payloads by identifying these programmatic challenges and presenting ways in which they can be avoided or mitigated. Despite the challenges, several recent hosted payload programs have been successfully completed or are currently in progress. This paper presents an assessment of these programs, with a focus on acquisition, costs, schedules, risks, and other programmatic aspects. The hosted payloads included in this study are the Federal Aviation Administration's Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) payloads, United States Coast Guard's Automatic Identification System (AIS) demonstration payload, Department of Defense's IP Router In Space (IRIS) demonstration payload, the United States Air Force's Commercially Hosted Infrared Payload (CHIRP), and the Australian Defence Force's Ultra High Frequency (UHF) payload. General descriptions of each of these programs are presented along with issues that have been encountered and lessons learned from those experiences. A set of recommended approaches for future hosted payload programs is presented, with a focus on addressing risks or potential problem areas through smart and flexible contracting up front. This set of lessons and recommendations is broadly applicable to future hosted payload programs, whether they are technology demonstrations, communications systems, or operational sensors. Additionally, we present a basic cost model for commercial access to space for hosted payloads as a function of payload mas

A Comparison of Probabilistic and Deterministic Campaign Analysis for Human Space Exploration

Human space exploration is by its very nature an uncertain endeavor. Vehicle reliability, technology development risk, budgetary uncertainty, and launch uncertainty all contribute to stochasticity in an exploration scenario. However, traditional strategic analysis has been done in a deterministic manner, analyzing and optimizing the performance of a series of planned missions. History has shown that exploration scenarios rarely follow such a planned schedule. This paper describes a methodology to integrate deterministic and probabilistic analysis of scenarios in support of human space exploration. Probabilistic strategic analysis is used to simulate "possible" scenario outcomes, based upon the likelihood of occurrence of certain events and a set of pre-determined contingency rules. The results of the probabilistic analysis are compared to the nominal results from the deterministic analysis to evaluate the robustness of the scenario to adverse events and to test and optimize contingency planning

The Potential for Hosted Payloads at NASA

The 2010 National Space Policy encourages federal agencies to actively explore the use of inventive, nontraditional arrangements for acquiring commercial space goods and services to meet United States Government requirements, including...hosting government capabilities on commercial spacecraft. NASA's Science Mission Directorate has taken an important step towards this goal by adding an option for hosted payload responses to its recent Announcement of Opportunity (AO) for Earth Venture-2 missions. Since NASA selects a significant portion of its science missions through a competitive process, it is useful to understand the implications that this process has on the feasibility of successfully proposing a commercially hosted payload mission. This paper describes some of the impediments associated with proposing a hosted payload mission to NASA, and offers suggestions on how these impediments might be addressed. Commercially hosted payloads provide a novel way to serve the needs of the science and technology demonstration communities at a fraction of the cost of a traditional Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) mission. The commercial communications industry launches over 20 satellites to GEO each year. By exercising this repeatable commercial paradigm of privately financed access to space with proven vendors, NASA can achieve science goals at a significantly lower cost than the current dedicated spacecraft and launch vehicle approach affords. Commercial hosting could open up a new realm of opportunities for NASA science missions to make measurements from GEO. This paper also briefly describes two GEO missions recommended by the National Academies of Science Earth Science Decadal Survey, the Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission and the Precipitation and All-weather Temperature and Humidity (PATH) mission. Hosted payload missions recently selected for implementation by the Office of the Chief Technologist are also discussed. Finally, there are technical differences specific to hosted payloads and the GEO environment that must be considered when planning and developing a hosted payload mission. This paper addresses some of payload accommodation differences from the typical NASA LEO mission, including spacecraft interfaces, attitude control and knowledge, communications, data handling, mission operations, ground systems, and the thermal, radiation, and electromagnetic environment. The paper also discusses technical and programmatic differences such as limits to NASA's involvement with commercial quality assurance processes to conform to the commercial schedule and minimizing the price that makes hosted payloads an attractive option

Lunar Exploration Architecture Level Key Drivers and Sensitivities

Strategic level analysis of the integrated behavior of lunar transportation and lunar surface systems architecture options is performed to assess the benefit, viability, affordability, and robustness of system design choices. This analysis employs both deterministic and probabilistic modeling techniques so that the extent of potential future uncertainties associated with each option are properly characterized. The results of these analyses are summarized in a predefined set of high-level Figures of Merit (FOMs) so as to provide senior NASA Constellation Program (CxP) and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management with pertinent information to better inform strategic level decision making. The strategic level exploration architecture model is designed to perform analysis at as high a level as possible but still capture those details that have major impacts on system performance. The strategic analysis methodology focuses on integrated performance, affordability, and risk analysis, and captures the linkages and feedbacks between these three areas. Each of these results leads into the determination of the high-level FOMs. This strategic level analysis methodology has been previously applied to Space Shuttle and International Space Station assessments and is now being applied to the development of the Constellation Program point-of-departure lunar architecture. This paper provides an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and the lunar exploration architecture analyses to date. In studying these analysis results, the strategic analysis team has identified and characterized key drivers affecting the integrated architecture behavior. These key drivers include inclusion of a cargo lander, mission rate, mission location, fixed-versus- variable costs/return on investment, and the requirement for probabilistic analysis. Results of sensitivity analysis performed on lunar exploration architecture scenarios are also presented