Optimal Length of Moving Average to Forecast Futures Basis

Futures prices when combined with a basis forecast provide a reliable way to forecast cash prices. The most popular method of forecasting basis is historical moving averages. Given the recent failure of longer moving averages proposed by previous studies, this research reassesses past recommendations about the best length of moving average to use in forecasting basis. This research compares practical preharvest and storage period basis forecasts for hard wheat, soft wheat, corn and soybeans to identify the optimal amount of historical information to include in moving average forecasts. Only with preharvest hard wheat forecasts are the best moving averages longer than 3 years. The differences in forecast accuracy among the different moving averages are small and in most cases the differences are not statistically significant. The recommendation is to use longer moving averages during time periods (or at locations) when there have been no structural changes and use last year’s basis after it appears that a structural change has occurred.Basis forecast, grain, Law of One Price, moving averages, structural change, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Marketing, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty,

An Invertible Linearization Map for the Quartic Oscillator

The set of world lines for the non-relativistic quartic oscillator satisfying Newton's equation of motion for all space and time in 1-1 dimensions with no constraints other than the "spring" restoring force is shown to be equivalent (1-1-onto) to the corresponding set for the harmonic oscillator. This is established via an energy preserving invertible linearization map which consists of an explicit nonlinear algebraic deformation of coordinates and a nonlinear deformation of time coordinates involving a quadrature. In the context stated, the map also explicitly solves Newton's equation for the quartic oscillator for arbitrary initial data on the real line. This map is extended to all attractive potentials given by even powers of the space coordinate. It thus provides classes of new solutions to the initial value problem for all these potentials

Workshop - Amundsen Sea Embayment Tectonic and Glacial History - Programme and Abstracts

Overall Objective: Review existing data and identify priorities for future geoscience research (terrestrial, marine and airborne) in the Amundsen Sea embayment (ASE) region required to develop a better understanding of the past, present and future behaviour of this sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Background: The ASE is the most rapidly changing sector of the WAIS and contains enough ice to raise global sea level by 1.2 m. Over the past few years considerable efforts have been made to acquire new data to improve knowledge of the geological structure, subglacial topography, continental shelf bathymetry and glacial history of this remote region. In this workshop we aim to review the current state of knowledge on the tectonic and glacial evolution of the Amundsen Sea embayment. Particular emphasis will be placed on work that will improve boundary conditions for ice sheet models (e.g. subglacial topography, shelf bathymetry, palaeotopography, heat flow and substrate types) and provide palaeo-data against which model outputs can be compared. There will also be a focus on plans and targets for future scientific drilling that will reveal the history of this sector of the WAIS and its sensitivity to major climate changes

Epithelial stem cells in the mammary gland: casting light into dark corners

The epithelial structures of the human breast or the mouse mammary gland are derived from a relatively small number of multipotent, tissue-specific stem cells, of which we are surprisingly ignorant. We do not know how many are required to produce a complete mammary gland, how many times they divide during the process, where they are situated in the gland, or even what they look like. We want to know the answers to these questions, not just to satisfy intellectual curiosity, but also because the answers may shed light on the evolution of breast cancer. Now, studies carried out by Kordon and Smith at the National Cancer Institute have pointed the way toward a new understanding of mammary stem cells and their progeny

Greek Tragedy, European Odyssey: The Politics and Economics of the Eurozone Crisis

Debate among politicians and academics alike vacillates as to whether the euro is the crowning achievement of a half-century of European integration efforts, or now constitutes a force that threatens to drive European Union member states apart. This book introduces both the political and economic forces at play in the eurozone crisis that have shaped this debate and changed the face of European integration

Magnetic Instability in Strongly Correlated Superconductors

Recently a new phenomenological Hamiltonian has been proposed to describe the superconducting cuprates. This so-called Gossamer Hamiltonian is an apt model for a superconductor with strong on-site Coulomb repulsion betweenthe electrons. It is shown that as one approaches half-filling the Gossamer superconductor, and hence the superconducting state, with strong repulsion is unstable toward an antiferromagnetic insulator an can undergo a quantum phase transition to such an insulator if one increases the on-site Coulomb repulsion