Lessons Learned from the Pioneers 10/11 for a Mission to Test the Pioneer Anomaly

Analysis of the radio-metric tracking data from the Pioneer 10/11 spacecraft at distances between 20--70 astronomical units (AU) from the Sun has consistently indicated the presence of an anomalous, small, constant Doppler frequency drift. The drift is a blue-shift, uniformly changing with rate a_t = (2.92 +/- 0.44) x 10^(-18) s/s^2. It can also be interpreted as a constant acceleration of a_P = (8.74 +/- 1.33) x 10^(-8) cm/s^2 directed towards the Sun. Although it is suspected that there is a systematic origin to the effect, none has been found. As a result, the nature of this anomaly has become of growing interest. Here we discuss the details of our recent investigation focusing on the effects both external to and internal to the spacecraft, as well as those due to modeling and computational techniques. We review some of the mechanisms proposed to explain the anomaly and show their inability to account for the observed behavior of the anomaly. We also present lessons learned from this investigation for a potential deep-space experiment that will reveal the origin of the discovered anomaly and also will characterize its properties with an accuracy of at least two orders of magnitude below the anomaly's size. A number of critical requirements and design considerations for such a mission are outlined and addressed.Comment: 11 pages, invited talk given at ``35th COSPAR Scientific Assebly,'' July 18-24, 2004, Paris, Franc

Seeking a solution of the Pioneer Anomaly

The 1972 and 1973 launched Pioneer 10 and 11 were the first missions to explore the outer solar system. They achieved stunning breakthroughs in deep-space exploration. But around 1980 an unmodeled force of \sim 8 \times 10^{-8} cm/s^2, directed approximately towards the Sun, appeared in the tracking data. It later was unambiguously verified as not being an artifact. The origin remains unknown (although radiant heat remains a likely cause). Increasing effort has gone into understanding this anomaly. We review the situation and describe programs to resolve the issue.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure, invited talk at the Fourth Meeting on CPT and Lorentz Symmetry, 8-11 Aug. 2007, held at Indiana Universit

Earth Flyby Anomalies

In a reference frame fixed to the solar system's center of mass, a satellite's energy will change as it is deflected by a planet. But a number of satellites flying by Earth have also experienced energy changes in the Earth-centered frame -- and that's a mystery.Comment: 5 pagea 3 figure

A Mission to Test the Pioneer Anomaly

Analysis of the radio tracking data from the Pioneer 10/11 spacecraft has consistently indicated the presence of an anomalous small Doppler frequency drift. The drift can be interpreted as being due to a constant acceleration of a_P= (8.74 +/- 1.33) x 10^{-8} cm/s^2 directed towards the Sun. Although it is suspected that there is a systematic origin to the effect, none has been found. The nature of this anomaly has become of growing interest in the fields of relativistic cosmology, astro- and gravitational physics as well as in the areas of spacecraft design and high-precision navigation. We present a concept for a designated deep-space mission to test the discovered anomaly. A number of critical requirements and design considerations for such a mission are outlined and addressed.Comment: Final changes for publication. Honorable Mention, 2002 Gravity Research Foundation Essay

Comparison of Hedging Cost with Other Variable Input Costs

Recent spikes in commodity prices have led to higher margin amounts and option premiums. For the most part, producers have always attributed their lack of use in reducing risk via futures and options markets to the high cost associated with the use of these markets. This study determines the relative costs of hedging with futures and options and compares these with the costs of other variable inputs. We find that with the exception of hedging corn with both tools and soybeans with options the costs of hedging has only increased at roughly the same rate as all other inputs.Hedging costs, Costs of production, Risk management, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Demand and Price Analysis, Farm Management, Marketing, Risk and Uncertainty,

Producer Perceptions of Corn, Soybean and Cotton Price Risk

Risk is an inevitable part of agricultural production and all producers face various forms of risk. This study used the subjective price expectations and price distributions of survey participants to determine how producer’s expectations compare with that of the market. Data used for this study were gathered through survey responses from Mississippi State University Extension meeting and workshop participants. Individual respondent’s discreet stated price and price distribution information was fitted to a continuous distribution and an implied mean and standard deviation was determined. This was compared to market price and price risk data. Participants largely over-estimated price. Individual volatilities resulting from each fitted distribution were lower than that implied by the market.price risk, price perception, subjective probability elicitation, Production Economics, Q13,

Climate change and the Delta, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science

Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful preparation for the coming changes will require greater integration of monitoring, modeling, and decision making across time, variables, and space than has been historically normal

Directly Measured Limit on the Interplanetary Matter Density from Pioneer 10 and 11

The Pioneer 10 and 11 spacecraft had exceptional deep-space navigational capabilities. The accuracies of their orbit reconstruction were limited, however, by a small, anomalous, Doppler frequency drift that can be interpreted as an acceleration of (8.74 +/- 1.33) x 10^{-8} cm/s^2 directed toward the Sun. We investigate the possibility that this anomaly could be due to a drag on the spacecraft from their passing through the interplanetary medium. Although this mechanism is an appealing one, the existing Pioneer radiometric data would require an unexpectedly high mass density of interplanetary dust for this mechanism to work. Further, the magnitude of the density would have to be nearly constant at distances ~ 20-70 AU. Therefore, it appears that such an explanation is very unlikely, if not ruled out. Despite this, the measured frequency drift by itself places a directly-measured, model-independent limit of \lessim 3 x 10^{-19} g/cm^3 on the mass density of interplanetary dust in the outer(~20-70 AU) solar system. Lower experimental limits can be placed if one presumes a model that varies with distance. An example is the limit \lessim 6 x 10^{-20} g/cm^3 obtained for the model with an axially-symmetric density distribution that falls off as the inverse of the distance. We emphasize that the limits obtained are experimentally-measured, in situ limits. A mission to investigate the anomaly would be able to place a better limit on the density, or perhaps even to measure it.Comment: 16 pages, 2 figures, publication versio