Land Use Change in Europe- Scenarios for a Project Area in East Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic

This study identifies plausible scenarios for land use changes for a project area located at the coexistent borders of Poland, the Czech Republic and East Germany. The time frame is 1992 to 2050 with an intermediate step in 2020. The basis for the scenarios is an analysis of the driving forces for land use change in the context of the study area. The main emphasis here is on the EU's Common Agricultural Policy and trends in agriculture and forestry in the three countries of the project area. In addition former land use change, spread of urban areas, the state of mining areas, recreation and nature conservation and policies related to land use planning are of importance and therefore analyzed for each country. The direction of land use change between 1960 and present was a decrease in agricultural land and an increase in forest and 'other' area, which mainly consists of urban area and area for infrastructure. Recent changes in the Common Agricultural Policy aim at reducing overproduction an cut spending in general. The prevailing tendency is to liberalize the agricultural sector to shift from product tied payments to direct payments to farmers for social, environmental or cultural duties. Since the political changes in 1989 the three countries of the project area have undergone significant economic and structural changes. East Germany as part of Unified Germany and part of the EU has experienced the most drastic restructuring of the agricultural sector with the main feature of major job losses and production decreases, especially in the livestock sector. Similar developments, though not as radical, can be observed in Poland and the Czech Republic. The first Scenario, "Large Scale Increase of Wooded Area", anticipates the introduction of a free market economy to the agricultural sector. No more subsidies are required for agriculture. Large areas of marginal farmland have to be taken out of production. The price of land decreases. Farmers will either afforest their farmland or sell it to non-agricultural uses like urban development, recreation or nature conservation are options for farmers. A quantification for the project area foresees by 2050 a decrease of agricultural land to half of its size in 1992, a doubling of forest and an increase of 'other' area by 80%. Scenario 2, "Alternative Agricultural Products", assumes a shift from food production to nonfood products, mainly biofuel and incentives for an extensification of agricultural production. Subsidies, that are still required for the agricultural sector, will be kept. The overall policy aims at keeping the land open, avoiding uncontrolled spreading of urban development and providing prospect for development and employment in rural areas. The main characteristic of Scenario 3, "Europe as Food Exporter", is an increase in the demand for agricultural products, which by approximately 2010 triggers a increase in the world market price for food products. Reasons for this are population and wealth increase, especially in China an south east Asia, combined with environmental constraints like water or fertile land scarcity and erosion. As a result agricultural production in Europe becomes prosperous in the frame of a free market environment. No further subsidies are required for the sector. Until 2010 the development is similar to Scenario 2. Scenario 2 and 3 show only modest changes in land use patterns, but the agricultural production structure differs. Scenario 2 focuses on a mixture of food and non-food products, while in Scenario 3 all available farmland is used for food production after 2010

Long-Term Performance Data and Analysis of CIS/CIGS Modules Deployed Outdoors

The long-term performance data of copper indium diselenide (CIS) and gallium-alloyed CIS (CIGS) photovoltaic (PV) modules are investigated to assess the reliability of this technology

Cost-effectiveness of alternative methods of surgical repair of inguinal hernia

Objectives: To assess the relative cost-effectiveness of laparoscopic methods of inguinal hernia repair compared with open flat mesh and open non-mesh repair. Methods: Data on the effectiveness of these alternatives came from three systematic reviews comparing: (i) laparoscopic methods with open flat mesh or non-mesh methods; (ii) open flat mesh with open non-mesh repair; and (iii) methods that used synthetic mesh to repair the hernia defect with those that did not. Data on costs were obtained from the authors of economic evaluations previously conducted alongside trials included in the reviews. A Markov model was used to model cost-effectiveness for a five-year period after the initial operation. The outcomes of the model were presented using a balance sheet approach and as cost per hernia recurrence avoided and cost per extra day at usual activities. Results: Open flat mesh was the most cost-effective method of preventing recurrences. Laparoscopic repair provided a shorter period of convalescence and less long-term pain compared with open flat mesh but was more costly. The mean incremental cost per additional day back at usual activities compared with open flat mesh was €38 and €80 for totally extraperitoneal and transabdominal preperitoneal repair, respectively. Conclusions: Laparoscopic repair is not cost-effective compared with open flat mesh repair in terms of cost per recurrence avoided. Decisions about the use of laparoscopic repair depend on whether the benefits (reduced pain and earlier return to usual activities) outweigh the extra costs and intraoperative risks. On the evidence presented here, these extra costs are unlikely to be offset by the short-term benefits of laparoscopic repair.Luke Vale, Adrian Grant, Kirsty McCormack, Neil W. Scott and the EU Hernia Trialists Collaboratio

Stability of CIS/CIGS Modules at the Outdoor Test Facility over Two Decades: Preprint

This paper discusses examining the status and question of long-term stability of copper indium diselenide (CIS) photovoltaic (PV) module performance for numerous modules that are deployed in the array field, or on the roof of, the outdoor test facility (OTF) at NREL, acquired from two manufacturers

Autonomous clustering using rough set theory

This paper proposes a clustering technique that minimises the need for subjective human intervention and is based on elements of rough set theory. The proposed algorithm is unified in its approach to clustering and makes use of both local and global data properties to obtain clustering solutions. It handles single-type and mixed attribute data sets with ease and results from three data sets of single and mixed attribute types are used to illustrate the technique and establish its efficiency

Fiscal Year 2005 Solar Radiometry and Metrology Task Accomplishments

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Solar Radiometry and Metrology task provides traceable optical radiometric calibrations and measurements to photovoltaic (PV) researchers and the PV industry. Traceability of NREL solar radiometer calibrations to the World Radiometric Reference (WRR) was accomplished during Pyrheliometer Comparison at NREL in October 2004. Ten spectral and more than 200 broadband radiometers for solar measurements were calibrated this year. We measured detailed spectral distributions of the NREL and PV industry Pulsed Solar Simulators and are analyzing the influence of environmental variables on radiometer uncertainty. New systems for indoor and outdoor solar radiometer calibrations and ultraviolet (UV) spectral measurements and UV radiometer calibrations were purchased and tested. Optical metrology functions support the NREL Measurement and Characterization Task effort for ISO 17025 accreditation of NREL Solar Reference Cell Calibrations and have been integrated into the NREL quality system and audited for ISO17025 compliance

Performance Test of Amorphous Silicon Modules in Different Climates - Year Four: Progress in Understanding Exposure History Stabilization Effects; Preprint

The four-year experiment involved three identical sets of thin-film a-Si modules from various manufacturers deployed outdoors simultaneously in three sites with distinct climates. Each PV module set spent a one-year period at each site before a final period at the original site where it was first deployed

Characterization of complex networks: A survey of measurements

Each complex network (or class of networks) presents specific topological features which characterize its connectivity and highly influence the dynamics of processes executed on the network. The analysis, discrimination, and synthesis of complex networks therefore rely on the use of measurements capable of expressing the most relevant topological features. This article presents a survey of such measurements. It includes general considerations about complex network characterization, a brief review of the principal models, and the presentation of the main existing measurements. Important related issues covered in this work comprise the representation of the evolution of complex networks in terms of trajectories in several measurement spaces, the analysis of the correlations between some of the most traditional measurements, perturbation analysis, as well as the use of multivariate statistics for feature selection and network classification. Depending on the network and the analysis task one has in mind, a specific set of features may be chosen. It is hoped that the present survey will help the proper application and interpretation of measurements.Comment: A working manuscript with 78 pages, 32 figures. Suggestions of measurements for inclusion are welcomed by the author

Factors explaining variance in perceived pain in women with fibromyalgia

BACKGROUND: We hypothesized that a substantial proportion of the subjectively experienced variance in pain in fibromyalgia patients would be explained by psychological factors alone, but that a combined model, including neuroendocrine and autonomic factors, would give the most parsimonious explanation of variance in pain. METHODS: Psychometric assessment included McGill Pain Questionnaire, General Health Questionnaire, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Rating Scale, Eysenck personality Inventory, Neuroticism and Lie subscales, Toronto Alexithymia Scale, and Multidimensional Health Locus of Control Scale and was performed in 42 female patients with fibromyalgia and 48 female age matched random sample population controls. A subgroup of the original sample (22 fibromyalgia patients and 13 controls) underwent a pharmacological challenge test with buspirone to assess autonomic and adrenocortical reactivity to serotonergic challenge. RESULTS: Although fibromyalgia patients scored high on neuroticism, anxiety, depression and general distress, only a minor part of variance in pain was explained by psychological factors alone. High pain score was associated with high neuroticism, low baseline cortisol level and small drop in systolic blood pressure after buspirone challenge test. This model explained 41.5% of total pain in fibromyalgia patients. In population controls, psychological factors alone were significant predictors for variance in pain. CONCLUSION: Fibromyalgia patients may have reduced reactivity in the central sympathetic system or perturbations in the sympathetic-parasympathetic balance. This study shows that a biopsychosocial model, including psychological factors as well as factors related to perturbations of the autonomic nervous system and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, is needed to explain perceived pain in fibromyalgia patients