Probabilistic niche model results for the Benguela food web.

<p>Feeding links in the empirical data set and feeding probabilities in the probabilistic niche model for the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) parameter set. On the x-axis, predators are ordered by their estimated (MLE) <i>c_i</i> values; on the y-axis, prey are ordered by their estimated (MLE) <i>n_i</i> values. Model predictions, calculated at the MLE, are shown as the grey circles: the area of each circle is proportional to P(<i>n_j</i>, <i>r_i</i>, <i>c_i</i>), the probability that <i>i</i> eats <i>j</i>. Apparent missing grey circles simply correspond to very low values of P(<i>n_j</i>, <i>r_i</i>, <i>c_i</i>). Observations are shown in black: a black circle is shown for those feeding relationships that have been observed. A match between large grey circles, and the black circles, implies a close match between model and data. Two predators with poorly predicted prey (expected fraction of prey links ≤0.65), <i>other pelagic</i> and <i>chub mackerel</i>, are labelled with arrows. Six prey species with poorly predicted predators (expected fraction of predator links ≤0.65) are labelled with arrows: from bottom to top, <i>gelatinous zooplankton</i>, <i>bacteria</i>, <i>macrozooplankton</i>, <i>snoek</i>, <i>sharks</i> and <i>kob</i>.</p

Relationships between maximum likelihood parameters.

<p>(a) Feeding range <i>r_i</i> and (b) centre of feeding range <i>c_i</i> versus niche position <i>n_i</i> and (c) <i>r_i</i> versus <i>c_i</i> for the MLE parameter set of the probabilistic niche model.</p

MLE parameter Spearman rank correlations and p values.

<p>Entries marked with * have significant correlation (p<0.001) while all other entries have <i>p</i>>0.05 when corrected using false discovery rate control (<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0012092#pone.0012092-Verhoeven1" target="_blank">[36]</a>).</p

Fraction of links reproduced correctly for each species.

<p>(a) Number of prey versus <i>f_R</i>, the expected fraction of prey links reproduced correctly and (b) Number of predators versus <i>f_C</i>, the expected fraction of predator links reproduced correctly.</p