Mountain glaciers of NE Asia in the near future: a projection based on climate-glacier systems' interaction

International audienceIn this study we consider contrasting continental (Orulgan, Suntar-Khayata and Chersky ranges located in the Pole of Cold area at the contact of Atlantic and Pacific influences) and maritime (Kamchatka under the Pacific influence) Russian glacier systems. Our purpose is to present a simple method for the projection of change of the main parameters of these glacier systems with climate change. To achieve this aim, we constructed vertical profiles of mass balance (accumulation and ablation) based both on meteorological observations for the mid to late 20th century and an ECHAM4 GCM scenario for 2040?2069. The observations and scenario were used for defining the recent and future equilibrium line altitude (ELA) for each glacier system. The altitudinal distributions of the areas covered with glacier ice were determined for present and future states of the glacier systems, taking into account the correlation of the change of the ELA and glacier-termini levels. We also give estimates of the possible changes of the areas and morphological structure of North-eastern Asia glacier systems and their mass balance characteristics from the ECHAM4 scenario. Finally, we compare characteristics of the continental and maritime glacier systems stability under conditions of global warming

Contemporary (2001) and ‘Little Ice Age’ glacier extents in the Buordakh Massif, Cherskiy Range, north east Siberia

The Buordakh Massif of the Cherskiy Range of sub-arctic north east Siberia, Russia has a cold continental climate and supports over 80 glaciers. Despite previous research in the region, a georeferenced map of the glaciers has only recently been completed and an enhanced version of it is reproduced in colour here. The mountains of this region reach heights in excess of 3,000 m and the glaciers on their slopes range in size from 0.1 to 10.4 km2. The mapping has been compiled through the interpretation of Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite imagery from August 2001 which has been augmented by data from a field campaign undertaken at the same time. The glaciers of the region are of the cold, ‘firn-less’ continental type and their mass balance relies heavily on the formation of superimposed ice. Moraines which lie in front of the glaciers by up to a few kilometres are believed to date from the Little Ice Age (ca. 1550-1850 AD). Over half of the glaciers mapped have shown marked retreat from these moraines

Оценка площадей, объёмов и высот границы питания ледниковых систем Северо-Востока России по космическим снимкам начала ХХI в.

The paper compares remotely sensed glacier inventories of the Byrranga, Suntar-Khayata, and Chersky ranges (2003), Koryak Highland and Chukotka mountains (2008) with data from the Inventory of Glaciers of the USSR (1945–1985). We studied changes in glacier area since the Inventory, which was primarily based on aerial photos and field research. The glaciers have been classified by orientation (aspect) and morphological type. Overall the glacierization of the Chersky Range (1970–2003), Suntar-Khayata (1945–2003), Byrranga (1967–2003), Koryak Highland (1950–2003) and Meynypilginsky Range (1984–2008) reduced by about 30, 20, 15, 60 (debatable value) and 25% respectively due to summer temperature rise. Calculation of glacier volumes for the dates indicated in the USSR Glacier Inventory and satellite imagery: during this period in sum for 5 studied glacier regions the area, covered by ice, has decreased by 225.2 km², and ice volume – by 8.7 Gtg. Construction of spatial patterns (maps) of current ELA for 3 different by climate mountain regions – the Suntar-Khayata Mountains– Chersky Range, and Meynypilgynsky Range ( North Far East), showed that despite of retreat of the glaciers, the mean ELA change for the first studied region is not large compared with the data from the Glacier Inventory (100 m ), and significant for the second (100–150 m).Выполнено сравнение площади ледников гор Бырранга, Сунтар-Хаята, хр. Черского (2003 г.), Корякского нагорья и Мейныпильгынского хребта (2008 г.), полученной по космическим снимкам, с соответствующими величинами из Каталога ледников СССР (данные 1945–1985 гг.). Рассчитана разность объёмов ледников между состоянием при каталогизации и началом ХХI в. С помощью цифровых моделей рельефа по снимкам определены верхняя и нижняя точки современных ледников и рассчитана высота границы их питания на районы гор Сунтар-Хаята, хр. Черского и Мейныпильгынского хребта (северо-восток Корякии); построены картосхемы высоты границы питания современных ледников для северо-востока Сибири (на 2003 г.) и для севера Корякского нагорья (на 2008 г.).

Glaciers of the northern massif of the Suntar-Khayata Mountains: current state and dynamics since the end of 1950s

The estimation of glaciers of the Suntar-Khayata Mountains (the Northeastern Siberia) in the context of previously published data is presented. Under the background of current warming the glaciers in this region retreat enough quickly, they decrease not only in a real size, but also by the ice thickness. In this paper the mean summer temperature and solid precipitation of the key factors for glaciation, which indicate unfavorable conditions for the glacier existence at present time are presented as spatial distribution of trends (for 45 years, until 2012). The glaciers of the northern massif of the Suntar-Khayata have a negative ice mass balance as their entire surface is below the equilibrium line altitude. Mean thickness of superimposed ice on the glaciers of this massif was about 17 cm. Based on the assumption of climate variation in the Northern Pacific data it is suggested about the beginning of more favorable climatic conditions for the Suntar-Khayata glaciers

Ледники северного массива гор Сунтар-Хаята: современное состояние и динамика с конца 1950-х годов

The estimation of glaciers of the Suntar-Khayata Mountains (the Northeastern Siberia) in the context of previously published data is presented. Under the background of current warming the glaciers in this region retreat enough quickly, they decrease not only in a real size, but also by the ice thickness. In this paper the mean summer temperature and solid precipitation of the key factors for glaciation, which indicate unfavorable conditions for the glacier existence at present time are presented as spatial distribution of trends (for 45 years, until 2012). The glaciers of the northern massif of the Suntar-Khayata have a negative ice mass balance as their entire surface is below the equilibrium line altitude. Mean thickness of superimposed ice on the glaciers of this massif was about 17 cm. Based on the assumption of climate variation in the Northern Pacific data it is suggested about the beginning of more favorable climatic conditions for the Suntar-Khayata glaciers.В основу работы положены результаты обработки космических снимков Bing Map 2011  г. и материалы полевого сезона 2013  г. Оценено состояние ледников северного массива гор Сунтар-Хаята в продолжение ранее опубликованных работ [4, 5]. На фоне потепления на Северо-Востоке России ледники исследуемого района достаточно быстро деградируют, уменьшается не только их площадь, но и толщина. Полевые исследования показали, что все ледники этого массива в 2011–2013 гг. имели отрицательный баланс массы. За время с малого ледникового периода ледники № 28–31 потеряли около 0,38 км3 льда

Использование реанализа ERA5–Land и данных метеостанций в горных районах России для оценки изменения ледниковых систем Восточной Сибири и Дальнего Востока

This work involving the study of changes in the glacier equilibrium line altitude (ELA) is a continuance of the glaciological parameters of mountain systems investigation. The article explores the possibility of using new generation climate archives (in this case, ERA5–Land) together with weather station data on temperature and precipitation, in order to assess the climate dependence of the glacial system ELA in hard-to-reach and insufficiently studied mountain regions of the Russia Asian part. The ERA5–Land reanalysis reproduces temperature (values, dynamics, and trends) quite well in mountain systems. The use of total precipitation is possible only for assessing their dynamics and trends. The relative error for temperature trend is below 20% in both positive and negative sides, and precipitation is less than 30% in the negative one. Positive temperature trends of different intensity are observed in all mountains of the Russia Asian part with a maximum in the mountain systems of the Arctic zone. Minimal temperature trends are distinctive for coastal mountain regions of temperate latitudes. Summer temperature trends are maximum in inland areas and minimum in coastal mountain areas. The increase in precipitation in such areas occurs mainly at the expense of the cold period. It was revealed there was an increase of the glacial systems ELA from 50 to 800 m in the mountain regions of the Asian North Russia within 1966–2021. The value of the ELA rise coincides with areas of high temperature trends and may not correspond to precipitation negative trends.Исследуется возможность совместного использования реанализа ERA5–Land и станционных данных для оценки высоты границы питания ледниковых систем. ERA5–Land хорошо воспроизводит температуру и удовлетворительно тренды осадков. Положительные температурные тренды разной интенсивности наблюдаются во всех горных районах. Наблюдаемое увеличение высоты границы питания ледников совпадает с областями высоких температурных трендов

Identification of moraine-complex around glacier terminus by an infrared image -From infrared thermography images on a flight in eastern Siberia, Suntar-Khayata-

第4回極域科学シンポジウム横断セッション：[IA] 「急変する北極気候システム及びその全球的な影響の総合的解明」―GRENE北極気候変動研究事業研究成果報告2013―11月12日（火） 国立極地研究所 ２階大会議

Оценка эволюции ледниковых систем Северо-Востока России по данным регулярного метеорологического архива

A methodical approach is proposed for calculating the equilibrium line altitude HELA of glacier systems (on the example of the Northeastern Russia) on the basis of the characteristics that determine it in time and space: from the archive of temperature and precipitation at the grid points (the UDel archive, Delaware University). This data is used in the equation of mass balance of the glacier systems for the calculation of its components. As a result, the output is the inter-annual series of deviations of HELA from the mean value and the ratio between accumulation and solid precipitation in the regular grids over the glacial systems. By the longterm series of the HELA deviations the periods of minimum and maximum HELA state were revealed for various glacial systems, as well as linear trends of these series. This made us possible to evaluate the HELA trends in the future using the linear regression method. The sensitivity of the method of the initial parameters – the mean values of the summer air temperature, solid precipitation and the HELA value, received independently, have been estimated. Thus, the method allows detailing the HELA changes in space with the resolution of the archive used, and in time for each year of the selected climatic period.Предлагается методический подход для вычисления высоты границы питания HELA ледниковых систем (на примере Северо-Востока России) по архивным данным о температуре и осадках в узлах регулярной сетки 0,5° × 0,5°. По связи между архивными твёрдыми осадками и аккумуляцией для десяти ледниковых систем вычислены межгодовые ряды изменения HELA за 1949–2014 гг. и их линейные тренды для прогноза этой величины

Байкальская ледниковая система, новые находки

Three glaciers and other small glacial formations, which are not mentioned in the USSR Catalog of glaciers as well as in any published article, were found in the area of the Verkhneangarsky (upper Angara) Range on satellite images. Earlier, researchers from the Institute of Geography of Siberian Branch of RAS described a group of glaciers on the Baikal Mountains and the Barguzin Range, which together with the above group of the Verkhneangarsky Range are related to the Baikal basin by the climate conditions. Ogdynda-Maskit Glacier has been described on the spot in 2017, while other glaciers and snow patches are to be investigated in situ in 2018. Together with the above Baikal and Barguzin glaciers, new data allow identification of the Baikal Glacial system. The article presents analysis of climate changes in the region. Trends in mean annual temperature range from 1 to 4 °C/50 years, while the same of summer temperatures change from 1 to 3 °C/50 years, but without any evident spatial distribution between them. Another situation takes place in the spatial distribution of precipitation: trends in total precipitation decrease towards the Baikal Lake, while precipitation of the cold period, on the contrary, slightly increases towards the Lake, but with rather small trend – 10–40 mm per 50 years. The last fact confirms the influence of the Baikal basin on the alimentation of glaciers and snow patches on the Verkhneangarsky Range. Currently, glaciers of the Verkhneangarsky Range undergo a slow regression. На космических снимках Landsat‑8 обнаружены три ледника в районе Верхнеангарского хребта, которые не упоминаются в Каталоге ледников СССР и научной литературе. Ледник Огдында-Маскит описан в 2017 г. Вместе с уже известными ледниками Байкальского и Баргузинского хребтов новые находки позволяют выделить Байкальскую ледниковую систему, климатически связанную с оз. Байкал. Описаны орографические и климатические условия существования ледников этого района

Исследования Верхнеангарской группы ледников

Glaciers of the Verkhneangarsky mountain range are discovered in 2017-2018 and require detailed investigation and cataloging. This group of glaciers includes glaciers of the corrie and morphological types, and, according to the sizes, they should be qualified as small forms of glaciation. Four glacial formations were found during field studies of 2017-2018 together with several snow patches and stone glaciers; these four glaciers were measured and described. The temperature of ice in the glaciers of this region was measured during the investigations. Data on the ice temperature close to the temperature of the surface permafrost layer explain one of the conditions for existence of glaciers in the temperate zone at altitudes of 1800-2000 m. The dynamics of some glacial formations is analyzed in comparison with their present-day sizes, obtained as a result of interpretation of images from Bing maps and Sentinel-2 services, as well as with images of the CORONA mission (1967). The relative stability of the local glacial formations under climate change is related to the underlying permafrost as well as to the forms of occurrence in the relief, and a degree of closure by the stone cover.В результате полевых исследованиях в Верхнеангарском хребте обнаружены новые ледники, дано их описание, приведены результаты измерений, обсуждаются причины существования ледников в этом районе. По снимкам миссии CORONA определены размеры некоторых ледниковых образований на 1967 г