Computation of irradiance in a solar still by using a refined algorithm

A refined solar algorithm from the ESP-r system has been used to calculate the distribution of solar irradiation inside a basin-type solar still. In the approach, surface finish, view factors and multiple reflections are taken into consideration in the computation of the solar radiation that reaches the surface of the saline water in the distillation system. The algorithm was applied to a solar still tested at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow (55 520 N, 4 150 W). Under the prevailing meteorological conditions, it was found that previous models overestimated the computed solar load on the saline water surface. The present modelling approach is demonstrated to exhibit a higher degree of accuracy than previous methods for irradiance distribution prediction, yielding new insights into approaches to solar still performance improvement. The modelling outcomes are presented and discussed

The supervised hierarchical Dirichlet process

We propose the supervised hierarchical Dirichlet process (sHDP), a nonparametric generative model for the joint distribution of a group of observations and a response variable directly associated with that whole group. We compare the sHDP with another leading method for regression on grouped data, the supervised latent Dirichlet allocation (sLDA) model. We evaluate our method on two real-world classification problems and two real-world regression problems. Bayesian nonparametric regression models based on the Dirichlet process, such as the Dirichlet process-generalised linear models (DP-GLM) have previously been explored; these models allow flexibility in modelling nonlinear relationships. However, until now, Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP) mixtures have not seen significant use in supervised problems with grouped data since a straightforward application of the HDP on the grouped data results in learnt clusters that are not predictive of the responses. The sHDP solves this problem by allowing for clusters to be learnt jointly from the group structure and from the label assigned to each group.Comment: 14 page

Composite Cold Expansion Tooling

In the world of aircraft manufacturing, cold expansion products literally hold these aircraft together. The problem faced today is that the Little Brute Hydraulic Puller designed and built by Fatigue Technology Inc. is a handheld steel hydraulic cylinder that is heavy and expensive to produce. In a market that demands continuous improvement, there is a constant push to make the product cheaper, better and lighter. In order to accomplish this demand a composite tube will be substituted in the design as the primary pressure cylinder instead of the traditional steel pressure cylinder in order to create a lighter and cheaper design. Two separate designs we have been designed and built to withstand a given test pressure which will correlate to the sample provided by Polygon Composites. The first design is a single acting single cylinder that has caps at both end which extend past the outside diameter of the cylinder and will use bolts to hold the caps together. The second design will be similar however, the caps will thread onto an aluminum sleeve fitted outside the composite cylinder. The purpose of the aluminum sleeve will be to determine if the sample can meet the strength requirements with or without the extra layer. Each cylinder will be loaded until failure and the load will compared to a theoretical value established based on the dimensions of the sample. Both designs will be analyzed to determine their potential weight savings, cost of manufacturing and its potential improvement in machining and assembly time

Kuiggluk Speech Community

Thesis (M.Ed.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2010This thesis explores language shift in the Kuiggluk speech community through interviews, observation, and surveys. Kuiggluk is a Yup'ik community in Southwestern, Alaska that is undergoing language shift from the indigenous language, Yugtun, to English. The interviews examine four mothers and their daughters' speech patterns and their schooling and cultural history. The observations reflect the four girls' speech patterns and their daily conversations. The surveys examine the Kuiggluk youth's speech patterns and goals for Yugtun more broadly

Thinking clearly about climate change and mental health

Objective: To examine the quality and strength of evidence for an association between temperature increases caused by climate change and suicide used in policy documents to advocate for radical changes to healthcare systems in pursuit of decarbonisation. Method: The designs of articles collected in a systematic review which concluded that there was an association between climate change and increased rates of suicide were analysed for their capacity to support this conclusion. Complete US data covering temperatures and suicide rates between 1968 and 2004 was aggregated and analysed using linear regression to evaluate evidence for an association between temperature and suicide. Results: None of the articles collected in the review has a design capable of investigating whether there is an association between temperature increases caused by climate change and rates of suicide. At the national level increased annual US temperatures were associated with a decrease in the rate of suicide, and at the state level it was common for high average temperature states to have low rates of suicide and vice versa. Conclusions: Policy recommendations for radical changes in healthcare services have been based on misrepresented evidence. Policy makers should beware of recommendations that ignore scientific evidence to pursue faith-based goals

Integrating methods for determining length-at-age to improve growth estimates for two large scombrids

Fish growth is commonly estimated from length-at-age data obtained from otoliths. There are several techniques for estimating length-at-age from otoliths including 1) direct observed counts of annual increments; 2) age adjustment based on a categorization of otolith margins; 3) age adjustment based on known periods of spawning and annuli formation; 4) back-calculation to all annuli, and 5) back-calculation to the last annulus only. In this study we compared growth estimates (von Bertalanffy growth functions) obtained from the above five methods for estimating length-at-age from otoliths for two large scombrids: narrow-barred Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson) and broad-barred king mackerel (Scomberomorus semifasciatus). Likelihood ratio tests revealed that the largest differences in growth occurred between the back-calculation methods and the observed and adjusted methods for both species of mackerel. The pattern, however, was more pronounced for S. commerson than for S. semifasciatus, because of the pronounced effect of gear selectivity demonstrated for S. commerson. We propose a method of substituting length-at-age data from observed or adjusted methods with back-calculated length-at-age data to provide more appropriate estimates of population growth than those obtained with the individual methods alone, particularly when faster growing young fish are disproportionately selected for. Substitution of observed or adjusted length-at-age data with back-calculated length-at-age data provided more realistic estimates of length for younger ages than observed or adjusted methods as well as more realistic estimates of mean maximum length than those derived from backcalculation methods alone

Modelling the rate of trainees transitioning to Fellowship before achieving competence under the RANZCP’s Alternative Assessment Pathway to the Objective Structured Clinical Examination

Objective: The Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) has been removed from the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists’ (RANZCP) training pathway. This decision occurred in the context of an Alternative Assessment Pathway (AAP) necessitated by Covid-19, justified by logistical, methodological and equity concerns. The false positive rate of trainees progressing to Fellowship before achieving competence is a key indicator for evaluating any assessment leading to psychiatric Fellowship. Variations in the statistical properties of the AAP and OSCE were analysed for their impact on pre-competent trainees progressing to Fellowship. Method: Starting with the false positive scenario presented to justify discontinuing the OSCE, false positive rates associated with the AAP and OSCE were calculated based on different assumptions about reliability and accuracy. Results: The analyses suggest that less reliable and less accurate alternatives to the OSCE, such as the AAP, increase the number of pre-competent trainees progressing to Fellowship. Conclusions: Given possible increases in pre-competent trainees progressing to Fellowship while alternatives to the OSCE are finalised, confidence in the RANZCP's training program demands robust public analyses of those alternatives

Climate change and Pacific Island food systems

Climate change in Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs) is projected to have significant impacts, including rising sea-levels, more violent tropical cyclones and droughts. Fish stocks in the tropical regions of the Pacific are expected to be directly affected by any changes that may occur in the ocean’s ecosystem. The four alternative scenarios of the future of the Pacific food systems that are reported in this booklet provide important insights into the different dimensions of the food system, including fisheries and forests, trade, affordability and consumption, and public health. The scenarios offer essential information for policy-makers, in order for them to be able to test and take steps toward developing policies that enhance resilience and strengthen adaptation to climate change among fishers and farmers in the Pacific region

Microbial imbalance in inflammatory bowel disease patients at different taxonomic levels

Background Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), is a debilitating group of chronic diseases including Crohn’s Disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), which causes inflammation of the gut and affects millions of people worldwide. At different taxonomic levels, the structure of the gut microbiota is significantly altered in IBD patients compared to that of healthy individuals. However, it is unclear how these IBD-affected bacterial groups are related to other common bacteria in the gut, and how they are connected across different disease conditions at the global scale. Results In this study, using faecal samples from patients with IBD, we show through diversity analysis of the microbial community structure based on the 16S rRNA gene that the gut microbiome of IBD patients is less diverse compared to healthy individuals. Furthermore, we have identified which bacterial groups change in abundance in both CD and UC compared to healthy controls. A substantial imbalance was observed across four major bacterial phyla including Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria, which together constitute >98% of the gut microbiota. Next, we reconstructed a bacterial family co-abundance network based on the correlation of abundance profiles obtained from the public gut microbiome data of >22000 samples of faecal and gut biopsies taken from both diseased and healthy individuals. The data was compiled using the EBI metagenomics database [1]. By mapping IBD-altered bacterial families to the network, we show that the bacterial families which exhibit an increased abundance in IBD conditions are not well connected to other groups, implying that these families generally do not coexist together with common gut organisms. Whereas, the bacterial families whose abundance is reduced or did not change in IBD conditions compared to healthy conditions are very well connected to other bacterial groups, suggesting they are highly important groups of bacteria in the gut that can coexist with other bacteria across a range of conditions. Conclusions IBD patients exhibited a less diverse gut microbiome compared to healthy individuals. Bacterial groups which changed in IBD patients were found to be groups which do not co-exist well with common commensal gut bacteria, whereas bacterial groups which did not change in patients with IBD were found to commonly co-exist with commensal gut microbiota. This gives a potential insight into the dynamics of the gut microbiota in patients with IBD