Big sugar in southern Africa : rural development and the perverted potential of sugar/ethanol exports

This paper asks how investment in large-scale sugar cane production has contributed, and will contribute, to rural development in southern Africa. Taking a case study of the South African company Illovo in Zambia, the argument is made that the potential for greater tax revenue, domestic competition, access to resources and wealth distribution from sugar/ethanol production have all been perverted and with relatively little payoff in wage labour opportunities in return. If the benefits of agro-exports cannot be so easily assumed, then the prospective 'balance sheet' of biofuels needs to be re-examined. In this light, the paper advocates smaller-scale agrarian initiatives

An analysis of potential feedstock and location for biodiesel production in Southern Africa

The economics of biodiesel production shows that the cost of raw material is the main driver of the overall production costs. Operation cost of biodiesel production does not reflect significant economy of scale because scale-dependent variable such as labour, chemical and maintenance costs are only a small part of the operating expenses. The success of the biodiesel industry is therefore reliant upon the availability of adequate supplies of reasonably priced feedstocks. The potential oil crops for use in Southern Africa countries for biodiesel production are not well-documented. This paper analyzes the potential availability of biodiesel feedstock in Southern Africa and discusses their suitability, adaptability of the various oils as precursors for biodiesel production. Potential feedstocks are identified which is by no means an all inclusive list but contains major oil crops/feedstock that can be used for biodiesel production. The current and future availability of each feedstock are evaluated and growing regions for dedicated biodiesel oil seeds is proposed using multi criteria decision analysis based on analytic hierarchy process methodology. This paper also discusses the sustainability of using non-food crops as biodiesel feedstock against the backdrop of current biofuel policies and initiatives in Southern Africa. This study provides investment information to potential investors and further set the context for biofuel discussion and development in the African continent. © 2011 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC

Cost analyses and predictions for a fuel ethanol plant in a rural and landlocked African country: Lang factor approach

Research on improving ethanol production as an alternative to petroleum based fuel has been accelerating for both ecological and economical reasons. A simplified procedure for rapid ball-park cost estimate that can be used as a research tool by energy policy makers for targeting area of cost reduction in a project, for comparing alternative design and for reviewing achieved costs on completed projects is described. In this study, an operating, commercial scale fuel-ethanol plant annexed to a sugar industry and based on molasses in a poorly accessible rural and landlocked African country was used to determine the cost structure. Analysis of the breakdown of the fixed capital investment (FCI) cost, based on the principle of factorial method of capital cost estimation and using Lang factor (fL) analysis was used to create an econometric model for calculating FCI cost. The model suggests a Lang factor of 2.40 and 2.81 for outside and inside battery limits plant, respectively.Fuel ethanol Fixed capital investment Lang factor Ball park estimate Battery limit

Community perspectives on the introduction of biodiesel production in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa

This paper presents the outcomes of a questionnaire survey to ascertain the perspectives of local communities on the proposal to construct a large-scale biodiesel production facility in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, with feedstock supply to the production facility from the former communal homelands of the Province. A total of 303 questionnaires were administered through interactions with the communities that are expected to be a part of the feedstock production supply chain by visiting households and having in-depth interviews, and through a focus group discussion. Opinions were found to be overwhelmingly against the proposed biodiesel production supply chain. The concerns of local people varied, but the major issues were land availability as this is regarded as their identity; infrastructure development; associated pollution (air and water) posing serious health risk; doubts about the credibility of the developers; food security; and the distortion of the social fabric of the local communities. In general, local people felt that they were excluded from the project development and were asked to accept industrial scale development that will further lead to the impoverishment of the communities. The results also highlighted how large-scale plants may be affected by the local dynamics of perceptions; the willingness to partake in the supply chain was informed by personal, social and institutional factors and beliefs, as well as internal conflicts, due to perceived environmental, social and ecological risks, that were aggravated by miscommunication and the lack of understanding. The paper is deemed useful for policy makers to understand why communities may object to relatively large bioenergy projects, and to assist the developers of such projects to avoid delays and refusal of planning consent that can be associated with adverse local opinions. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.Articl

Biomethanol production from gasification of non woody plant in South Africa: optimum scale and economic performance.

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Economic risk assessment of advanced process technologies for bioethanol production in South Africa: Monte Carlo analysis

The development of ethanol industry for use as an alternative motor fuel has been steadily increasing around the world for several reasons. In South Africa, this industry is still in the early stages of development. In the National Biofuels Industrial Strategy, the South African government has made provision for support mechanisms to encourage investment in bioethanol production. There is thus an opportunity for grain-growing farmers to cultivate available or marginal lands for bioethanol crops, including triticale. This article examines the contribution of parametric uncertainty to economic feasibility studies for biomass-to-ethanol process plants. Monte Carlo (stochastic variable) simulation is employed as a tool to determine probability distributions for economic indicators (such as NPV and ROI) in the context of a proposed 200,000 tonnes per annum triticale grain ethanol plant located in the Western Cape province of South Africa. Three process technology scenarios are considered: a conventional starch-to-ethanol plant (Scenario I), an advanced starch-to-ethanol with grain fibre fractionation and energy recovery (Scenario II) and an integrated starch-cellulose plant where fractionated fibre is converted to fermentable sugars by pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis and then fermented to fuel alcohol (Scenario III). By modelling prices of raw materials and products stochastically, based on historical data, the concurrent fluctuations in prices are accounted for, incorporating a quantifiable measure of the associated financial risk to a typical (deterministic) economic prefeasibility analysis. Risk assessment of all processing options reveals that Scenario II is the most preferred fermentation process, achieving very high probability of economic success (98% probability of NPV > 0), suggesting that, under almost all conceivable circumstances of price fluctuation and plant availability, the investment will be successful. This is followed by Scenario III (96% probability of NPV > 0) while the least preferred option is Scenario I (93% probability of NPV > 0). The study also shows, however that without government subsidy, the plant exhibits only a 19% chance of economic success. Economic performance is shown to improve when fast-growing biomass is used to replace electricity as a fuel source for process heating. Monte Carlo simulation could assist energy planners, investors, and policy/decision makers to make a better management decision by identifying possible public policy that could be used to enhance the economic viability of the proposed ethanol plant. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.Articl

Feedstock and Technology Options for Bioethanol Production in South Africa: Technoeconomic Prefeasibility Study

IngenieursweseProsesingenieurswesePlease help us populate SUNScholar with the post print version of this article. It can be e-mailed to: [email protected]

The potential for climate change mitigation in solid waste disposal: A case study of lagos landfills

Solid waste disposal sites account for up to 20% of global emissions of methane the second most significant greenhouse gas. However, under proper management landfills can in fact have a positive carbon balance, by capturing the methane-rich landfill gas (LFG) produced from the dumpsites. This paper assesses the potential for implementing such a project in the Olusosun waste disposal site in Lagos, Nigeria. Data regarding municipal solid wastes (MSW) generation and composition, regulations as well as relevant aspects of the Nigerian energy market and its regulations and climate change policies were evaluated. This is employed to assess the potential for a viable implementation of a landfill gas to energy project at the site. The analyses revealed that the flaring only scenario was observed to be the most economically feasible. The cost of producing electricity from LFG (approx. US$50/MWh) is higher than the estimated long term cost from natural-gas fed thermal plants (at US$39/MWh)

A system dynamics approach to technology sustainability assessment: The case of biodiesel developments in South Africa

Lettere En WysbegeerteSentrum vir Kennisdinamika & BesluitnemingPlease help us populate SUNScholar with the post print version of this article. It can be e-mailed to: [email protected]