Temporal correlation between malaria and rainfall in Sri Lanka

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Rainfall data have potential use for malaria prediction. However, the relationship between rainfall and the number of malaria cases is indirect and complex.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The statistical relationships between monthly malaria case count data series and monthly mean rainfall series (extracted from interpolated station data) over the period 1972 – 2005 in districts in Sri Lanka was explored in four analyses: cross-correlation; cross-correlation with pre-whitening; inter-annual; and seasonal inter-annual regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For most districts, strong positive correlations were found for malaria time series lagging zero to three months behind rainfall, and negative correlations were found for malaria time series lagging four to nine months behind rainfall. However, analysis with pre-whitening showed that most of these correlations were spurious. Only for a few districts, weak positive (at lags zero and one) or weak negative (at lags two to six) correlations were found in pre-whitened series. Inter-annual analysis showed strong negative correlations between malaria and rainfall for a group of districts in the centre-west of the country. Seasonal inter-annual analysis showed that the effect of rainfall on malaria varied according to the season and geography.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Seasonally varying effects of rainfall on malaria case counts may explain weak overall cross-correlations found in pre-whitened series, and should be taken into account in malaria predictive models making use of rainfall as a covariate.</p

Models for short term malaria prediction in Sri Lanka

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria in Sri Lanka is unstable and fluctuates in intensity both spatially and temporally. Although the case counts are dwindling at present, given the past history of resurgence of outbreaks despite effective control measures, the control programmes have to stay prepared. The availability of long time series of monitored/diagnosed malaria cases allows for the study of forecasting models, with an aim to developing a forecasting system which could assist in the efficient allocation of resources for malaria control.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Exponentially weighted moving average models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with seasonal components, and seasonal multiplicative autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were compared on monthly time series of district malaria cases for their ability to predict the number of malaria cases one to four months ahead. The addition of covariates such as the number of malaria cases in neighbouring districts or rainfall were assessed for their ability to improve prediction of selected (seasonal) ARIMA models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The best model for forecasting and the forecasting error varied strongly among the districts. The addition of rainfall as a covariate improved prediction of selected (seasonal) ARIMA models modestly in some districts but worsened prediction in other districts. Improvement by adding rainfall was more frequent at larger forecasting horizons.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Heterogeneity of patterns of malaria in Sri Lanka requires regionally specific prediction models. Prediction error was large at a minimum of 22% (for one of the districts) for one month ahead predictions. The modest improvement made in short term prediction by adding rainfall as a covariate to these prediction models may not be sufficient to merit investing in a forecasting system for which rainfall data are routinely processed.</p

Larval Development of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Peri-Urban Brackish Water and Its Implications for Transmission of Arboviral Diseases

Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes albopictus Skuse mosquitoes transmit serious human arboviral diseases including yellow fever, dengue and chikungunya in many tropical and sub-tropical countries. Females of the two species have adapted to undergo preimaginal development in natural or artificial collections of freshwater near human habitations and feed on human blood. While there is an effective vaccine against yellow fever, the control of dengue and chikungunya is mainly dependent on reducing freshwater preimaginal development habitats of the two vectors. We show here that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus lay eggs and their larvae survive to emerge as adults in brackish water (water with <0.5 ppt or parts per thousand, 0.5–30 ppt and >30 ppt salt are termed fresh, brackish and saline respectively). Brackish water with salinity of 2 to 15 ppt in discarded plastic and glass containers, abandoned fishing boats and unused wells in coastal peri-urban environment were found to contain Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus larvae. Relatively high incidence of dengue in Jaffna city, Sri Lanka was observed in the vicinity of brackish water habitats containing Ae. aegypti larvae. These observations raise the possibility that brackish water-adapted Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus may play a hitherto unrecognized role in transmitting dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever in coastal urban areas. National and international health authorities therefore need to take the findings into consideration and extend their vector control efforts, which are presently focused on urban freshwater habitats, to include brackish water larval development habitats

Impact of urban agriculture on malaria vectors in Accra, Ghana

To investigate the impact of urban agriculture on malaria transmission risk in urban Accra larval and adult stage mosquito surveys, were performed. Local transmission was implicated as Anopheles spp. were found breeding and infected Anopheles mosquitoes were found resting in houses in the study sites. The predominant Anopheles species was Anopheles gambiae s.s.. The relative proportion of molecular forms within a subset of specimens was 86% S-form and 14% M-form. Anopheles spp. and Culex quinquefasciatus outdoor biting rates were respectively three and four times higher in areas around agricultural sites (UA) than in areas far from agriculture (U). The annual Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR), the number of infectious bites received per individual per year, was 19.2 and 6.6 in UA and U sites, respectively. Breeding sites were highly transitory in nature, which poses a challenge for larval control in this setting. The data also suggest that the epidemiological importance of urban agricultural areas may be the provision of resting sites for adults rather than an increased number of larval habitats. Host-seeking activity peaked between 2–3 am, indicating that insecticide-treated bednets should be an effective control method

The Influence of International Law on the International Movement of Persons

Many migration theories identify ‘the law’ as a significant constraint on the international movement of persons. While this constraint often operates through national migration legislation, this study examines the influence of international law in shaping contemporary patterns in the international movement of persons at the macro level. The analysis begins with an examination of the long-established power of a State to regulate cross-border movement of persons as an inherent attribute of State sovereignty, together with the accepted limitations on a State’s power to control entry and exit. Yet, international law reaches well beyond the movement of people across borders. The development of international human rights law has been a key constraint on state action in the United Nations era by also regulating the treatment of migrants within a State’s borders. The study considers how international law has responded to current migration issues, including: protection of migrant women and children; suppression of smuggling and trafficking of people; labour migration; and environmental migration. As in other areas of international society, there has been a proliferation of institutions through which international migration law is made and enforced. The most prominent among them are the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), but the establishment of other entities with overlapping mandates has given rise to calls for a new international migration regime based on streamlined institutional arrangements. The study concludes that international law is an imperfect framework for regulating the international movement of persons because it has developed in a piecemeal fashion over a long time to deal with issues of concern at particular points in human history. Yet, despite its shortfalls, international law and its associated institutions unquestionably play a most important role in constraining and channeling state authority over the international movement of persons

The abundance and host-seeking behavior of culicine species (Diptera: Culicidae) and Anopheles sinensis in Yongcheng city, people's Republic of China

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The knowledge of mosquito species diversity and the level of anthropophily exhibited by each species in a region are of great importance to the integrated vector control. Culicine species are the primary vectors of Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus and filariasis in China. <it>Anopheles sinensis </it>plays a major role in the maintenance of <it>Plasmodium vivax </it>malaria transmission in China. The goal of this study was to compare the abundance and host-seeking behavior of culicine species and <it>An. sinensis </it>in Yongcheng city, a representative region of <it>P. vivax </it>malaria. Specifically, we wished to determine the relative attractiveness of different animal baits versus human bait to culicine species and <it>An. sinensis</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p><it>Culex tritaeniorhynchus </it>was the most prevalent mosquito species and <it>An. sinensis </it>was the sole potential vector of <it>P. vivax </it>malaria in Yongcheng city. There were significant differences (P < 0.01) in the abundance of both <it>An. sinensis </it>and <it>Cx. tritaeniorhynchus </it>collected in distinct baited traps. The relative attractiveness of animal versus human bait was similar towards both <it>An. sinensis </it>and <it>Cx. tritaeniorhynchus</it>. The ranking derived from the mean number of mosquitoes per bait indicated that pigs, goats and calves frequently attracted more mosquitoes than the other hosts tested (dogs, humans, and chickens). These trends were similar across all capture nights at three distinct villages. The human blood index (HBI) of female <it>An. sinensis </it>was 2.94% when computed with mixed meals while 3.70% computed with only the single meal. 19:00~21:00 was the primary peak of host-seeking female <it>An. sinensis </it>while 4:00~5:00 was the smaller peak at night. There was significant correlation between the density of female <it>An. sinensis </it>and the average relative humidity (P < 0.05) in Wangshanzhuang village.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Pigs, goats and calves were more attractive to <it>An. sinensis </it>and <it>Cx. tritaeniorhynchus </it>than dogs, humans, and chickens. Female <it>An. sinensis </it>host-seeking activity mainly occurred from 19:00 to 21:00. Thus, we propose that future vector control against <it>An. sinensis </it>and <it>Cx. tritaeniorhynchus </it>in the areas along the Huang-Huai River of central China should target the interface of human activity with domestic animals and adopt before human hosts go to bed at night.</p

The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in the Asia-Pacific region: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The final article in a series of three publications examining the global distribution of 41 dominant vector species (DVS) of malaria is presented here. The first publication examined the DVS from the Americas, with the second covering those species present in Africa, Europe and the Middle East. Here we discuss the 19 DVS of the Asian-Pacific region. This region experiences a high diversity of vector species, many occurring sympatrically, which, combined with the occurrence of a high number of species complexes and suspected species complexes, and behavioural plasticity of many of these major vectors, adds a level of entomological complexity not comparable elsewhere globally. To try and untangle the intricacy of the vectors of this region and to increase the effectiveness of vector control interventions, an understanding of the contemporary distribution of each species, combined with a synthesis of the current knowledge of their behaviour and ecology is needed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Expert opinion (EO) range maps, created with the most up-to-date expert knowledge of each DVS distribution, were combined with a contemporary database of occurrence data and a suite of open access, environmental and climatic variables. Using the Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) modelling method, distribution maps of each DVS were produced. The occurrence data were abstracted from the formal, published literature, plus other relevant sources, resulting in the collation of DVS occurrence at 10116 locations across 31 countries, of which 8853 were successfully geo-referenced and 7430 were resolved to spatial areas that could be included in the BRT model. A detailed summary of the information on the bionomics of each species and species complex is also presented.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This article concludes a project aimed to establish the contemporary global distribution of the DVS of malaria. The three articles produced are intended as a detailed reference for scientists continuing research into the aspects of taxonomy, biology and ecology relevant to species-specific vector control. This research is particularly relevant to help unravel the complicated taxonomic status, ecology and epidemiology of the vectors of the Asia-Pacific region. All the occurrence data, predictive maps and EO-shape files generated during the production of these publications will be made available in the public domain. We hope that this will encourage data sharing to improve future iterations of the distribution maps.</p