Non-Bayesian Updating : A Theoretical Framework

This paper models an agent in an infinite horizon setting who does not update according to Bayes' Rule, and who is self-aware and anticipates her updating behavior when formulating plans. Choice-theoretic axiomatic foundations are provided. Then the model is specialized axiomatically to capture updating biases that reflect excessive weight given to (i) prior beliefs, or alternatively, (ii) the realized sample. Finally, the paper describes a counterpart of the exchangeable Bayesian model, where the agent tries to learn about parameters, and some answers are provided to the question "what does a non-Bayesian updater learn?"non-Bayesian updating, overreaction, underreaction, confirmatory bias, law of small numbers, gambler's fallacy, hot hand fallacy, temptation, self-control, learning, menus

A low temperature X-ray single-crystal diffraction and polarised infra-red study of epidote

The effects of low-temperature on the crystal structure of a natural epidote [Ca1.925Fe0.745Al2.265Ti0.004 Si3.037O12(OH), a = 8.8924(7), b = 5.6214(3), c = 10.1547(6) angstrom and beta = 115.396(8)degrees at room conditions, Sp. Gr. P2(1)/m] have been investigated with a series of structure refinements down to 100 K on the basis of X-ray single-crystal diffraction data. The reflection conditions confirm that the space group is maintained within the T-range investigated. Structural refinements at all temperatures show the presence of Fe3+ at the octahedral M(3) site only [%Fe(M3) = 70.6(4)% at 295 K]. Only one independent proton site was located and two possible H-bonds occur, with O(10) as donor and O(4) and O(2) as acceptors. The H-bonding scheme is maintained down to 100 K and is supported by single crystal room-T polarised FTIR data. FTIR Spectra over the region 4,000-2,500 cm(-1) are dominated by the presence of a strongly pleochroic absorption feature which can be assigned to protonation of O(10)-O(4). Previously unobserved splitting of this absorption features is consistent with a NNN influence due to the presence of Al and Fe3+ on the nearby M(3) site. An additional relatively minor absorption feature in FTIR spectra can be tentatively assigned to protonation of O(10)-O(2). Low-T does not affect significantly the tetrahedral and octahedral bond distances and angles, even when distances are corrected for "rigid body motions". A more significant effect is observed for the bond distances of the distorted Ca(1)- and Ca(2)-polyhedra, especially when corrected for "non-correlated motion". The main low-T effect is observed on the vibrational regime of the atomic sites, and in particular for the two Ca-sites. A significant reduction of the magnitude of the thermal displacement ellipsoids, with a variation of U-eq (defined as one-third of the trace of the orthogonalised U-ij tensor) by similar to 40% is observed for the Ca-sites between 295 and 100 K. Within the same T-range, the U-eq of the octahedral and oxygen sites decrease similarly by similar to 35%, whereas those of the tetrahedral cations by similar to 22%

Whipping Instabilities in Electrified Liquid Jets

A liquid jet may develop different types of instabilities, like the so-called Rayleigh-Plateau instability, which breaks the jet into droplets. However, another type of instabilities may appear when we electrify a liquid jet and induce some charge at his surface. Among them, the most common is the so-called Whipping Instability, which is characterized by violent and fast lashes of the jet. In the submitted fluid dynamic video(see http://hdl.handle.net/1813/11422), we will show an unstable charged glycerine jet in a dielectric liquid bath, which permits an enhanced visualization of the instability. For this reason, it is probably the first time that these phenomena are visualized with enough clarity to analyze features as the effect of the feeding liquid flow rate through the jet or as the surprising spontaneous stabilization at some critical distance to the ground electrode.Comment: 3 pages, no figures, links to videos, Submission to the 26th Gallery of Fluid Motion (2009

Non-Bayesian updating: A theoretical framework

This paper models an agent in a multi-period setting who does not update according to Bayes' Rule, and who is self-aware and anticipates her updating behavior when formulating plans. Choice-theoretic axiomatic foundations are provided to capture updating biases that reflect excessive weight given to either prior beliefs, or alternatively, to observed data. A counterpart of the exchangeable Bayesian learning model is also described.Non-Bayesian updating, temptation and self-control, overreaction, underreaction, learning, law of small numbers

Avalanche of particles in evaporating coffee drops

The pioneering work of Deegan et al. [Nature 389, (1997)] showed how a drying sessile droplet suspension of particles presents a maximum evaporating flux at its contact line which drags liquid and particles creating the well known coffee stain ring. In this Fluid Dynamics Video, measurements using micro Particle Image Velocimetry and Particle Tracking clearly show an avalanche of particles being dragged in the last moments, for vanishing contact angles and droplet height. This explains the different characteristic packing of the particles in the layers of the ring: the outer one resembles a crystalline array, while the inner one looks more like a jammed granular fluid. Using the basic hydrodynamic model used by Deegan et al. [Phys. Rev. E 62, (2000)] it will be shown how the liquid radial velocity diverges as the droplet life comes to an end, yielding a good comparison with the experimental data.Comment: This entry contains a Fluid Dynamics Video candidate for the Gallery of Fluid Motion 2011 and a brief article with informatio

Using laser scanner technology to analyse mud-brick architecture in the ancient Near East. The Palatial Complex of Arslantepe (Malatya, Turkey)

This paper presents the preliminary results of a laser scanning survey carried out at the archaeological mound site of Arslantepe, located in eastern Turkey. The Italian Archaeological Expedition in Eastern Anatolia has largely brought to light its long history spanning from the 6th millennium BCE to the Byzantine period. The most outstanding evidence unearthed so far is a group of remarkably well preserved monumental buildings erected during the final centuries of the 4th millennium BCE, when the economic and political centralization reached its climax. Recently, the whole area became an open-air museum protecting the archaeological structures from climatic stress and enabling visitors to have a glimpse of the monumental complex as it was. The laser scanning survey was aimed at aiding the interpretation of the archaeological features through extremely accurate measurements as well as to provide the researchers with structural and condition monitoring of the surfaces overtime. Given the ever-changing plastic shape that mud-brick buildings take on over the time, this survey turned out to be an interesting challenge for testing laser scanner technology, since it is not easy to connect to any regular design