Does money lead inflation in the euro area?

This paper investigates the properties of monetary and credit aggregates as indicators for future price developments in the euro area. The forecasting performance of models including indicators based on money and credit is assessed in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for forecast horizons varying from one quarter to three years ahead. The performance of these models is compared with that of models which include indicators based on financial markets, real activity, the labour market and various cost and price measures. The results support the idea that monetary and credit aggregates provide significant and independent information for future price developments in the euro area, especially at medium term horizons JEL Classification: E31, E40, C32

A micro simulation model of demographic development and households' economic behavior in Italy

The relationship between the demographic structure and the saving rate of a society is the reflection of the aggregation of the behaviour of heterogeneous households, differing from one another in the type of living arrangements and in the characteristics of their members. In order to contribute to the understanding of this relationship, we construct a dynamic micro model capable of simulating the demographic development of a population, including the creation, destruction, dimension and various other important characteristics of households and their members. The demographic model is then combined with a specification of the processes generating income, social security wealth, retirement and consumption behaviour of households, and applied to a data set derived from survey data on the Italian household sector. Simulations of the model are used to study the evolution of aggregate income, saving and asset accumulation over the period 1994-2100. If fertility and mortality assumptions of recent official projections are adopted and marriage and divorce rates maintained at current levels, the dramatic ageing of the population and the marked decline in the share of population living in traditional households would lead, other things being equal, to a substantial decline in the aggregate saving rate. However, the reduction in the number of children per household and, above all, the decline in the ratio of social security wealth of households to disposable income as the effects of the recently introduced reforms begin to be felt act as offsetting factors. As a result, the aggregate saving rate increases over the initial 30 years of the simulation and moderately decreases thereafter, stabilizing slightly above the original level. Implications of changes in a number of key assumptions regarding the demographic evolution, productivity growth and individual behavioural responses are also analyzed.demographic developments, family structure, consumption, saving, social security, micro simulation model

Contingent liquidity

After the crisis, bank regulators are considering mitigating liquidity risk by introducing quantity limits on liquidity and maturity mismatch. We argue that aggregate liquidity risk can be reduced with little deadweight loss by encouraging banks, through adequate regulatory relief, to satisfy part of their financing needs with a new class of securities. These would include a Roll-Over Option Facility (ROOF) that allows the issuer, for a price, to keep the funds if at maturity a readily observable variable correlated with systemic liquidity risk (e.g. the LIBOR-OIS spread) is above a trigger threshold. At roll-over the yield would reflect the current price of liquidity and credit risk, making ROOFs attractive to investors. The instrument could attenuate a liquidity crisis by reducing banks’ need to roll debt over or sell off assets, and diminish the probability of runs, if markets are convinced that banks can secure sufficient liquidity when needed thanks to the widespread use of this contingent claim.funding, liquidity, contingent claim, financial crisis

Two electrodeposition strategies for the morphology-controlled synthesis of cobalt nanostructures

In this contribution, two different strategies are discussed to synthesize cobalt nanostructures: direct cobalt electrodeposition on a planar aluminum electrode and cobalt electrodeposition into nanoporous alumina templates generated by aluminum anodization (template electrodeposition). In the direct electrodeposition of cobalt on aluminum, cobalt nanoparticles are formed during the early stage of electrodeposition, which causes the depletion of cobalt ions near the electrode. Water reduction then takes place catalyzed by electrodeposited cobalt nanoparticles, which increases the pH near the electrode and can induce cobalt hydroxide precipitation. By varying the electrode potential and the cobalt ion concentration, the interplay between electrochemical growth of cobalt and water reduction could be controlled to induce transition from cobalt hexagonal nano-platelets to nanostructured films composed of cobalt nanoparticles and cobalt hydroxide nano-flakes. Cobalt nanowires can be synthesized by electrodeposition into nanoporous alumina templates generated by aluminum anodization. This approach typically involves the application of alumina templates produced by a two-step anodization procedure: the alumina nanoporous layer generated by a first anodization is dissolved in a chromic acid solution while a very ordered alumina nanoporous layer is produced by a second anodization stage. In accordance with previous studies, this procedure is fundamental to achieve uniform filling of the nanopores in the subsequent electrodeposition stage. In the present study, uniform filling of the nanoporous alumina generated by one-step anodization could be achieved by the electrodeposition of cobalt nanowires. This result was made possible by the application of a novel pulsed electrodeposition strategy

A new approach to violin teaching

Thesis (M.M.Ed.)--University of Kansas, Music Education, 1937

Definition of price stability, range and point inflation targets: the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations

JEL Classification: E52, E61, E31, E42, E43credibility, definition of price stability, inflation, inflation expectations, nominal anchor

Synthesis of cobalt nanoparticles by electrodeposition onto aluminium foils

In this contribution a study of electrochemical deposition of cobalt nanoparticles onto aluminium foils is presented. The study is aimed at deriving information required for design and control of cobalt nanoparticles electrodeposition onto aluminium foams employed as catalysts support in ethanol reforming. A thorough experimental analysis was in this perspective conducted to determine the influence of applied potential and amount of electric charge passing thorough the cell (amount of charge), on number density and size of the synthesized nanoparticles. Chronoamperometric tests were for this purpose performed in a three electrode cell to determine the current responses to variations in the selected operating parameters. Mathematical models accounting for charge transfer and diffusion limitations were implemented to attain fitting of the derived data, leading to an estimation of the number density of active sites. Scanning electron microscopy of cathode aluminium foils was performed to validate the predictions of the employed mathematical models and characterize the influence of the considered operating parameters on the size and number density of the electrodeposited nanoparticles