Recall patterns and risk of primary liver cancer for subcentimeter ultrasound liver observations: a multicenter study

BACKGROUND: Patients with cirrhosis and subcentimeter lesions on liver ultrasound are recommended to undergo short-interval follow-up ultrasound because of the presumed low risk of primary liver cancer (PLC). AIMS: The aim of this study is to characterize recall patterns and risk of PLC in patients with subcentimeter liver lesions on ultrasound. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study among patients with cirrhosis or chronic hepatitis B infection who had subcentimeter ultrasound lesions between January 2017 and December 2019. We excluded patients with a history of PLC or concomitant lesions ≥1 cm in diameter. We used Kaplan Meier and multivariable Cox regression analyses to characterize time-to-PLC and factors associated with PLC, respectively. RESULTS: Of 746 eligible patients, most (66.0%) had a single observation, and the median diameter was 0.7 cm (interquartile range: 0.5-0.8 cm). Recall strategies varied, with only 27.8% of patients undergoing guideline-concordant ultrasound within 3-6 months. Over a median follow-up of 26 months, 42 patients developed PLC (39 HCC and 3 cholangiocarcinoma), yielding an incidence of 25.7 cases (95% CI, 6.2-47.0) per 1000 person-years, with 3.9% and 6.7% developing PLC at 2 and 3 years, respectively. Factors associated with time-to-PLC were baseline alpha-fetoprotein \u3e10 ng/mL (HR: 4.01, 95% CI, 1.85-8.71), platelet count ≤150 (HR: 4.90, 95% CI, 1.95-12.28), and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis (vs. Child-Pugh A: HR: 2.54, 95% CI, 1.27-5.08). CONCLUSIONS: Recall patterns for patients with subcentimeter liver lesions on ultrasound varied widely. The low risk of PLC in these patients supports short-interval ultrasound in 3-6 months, although diagnostic CT/MRI may be warranted for high-risk subgroups such as those with elevated alpha-fetoprotein levels

Association between sustained virological response and clinical outcomes in patients with hepatitis C infection and hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Sustained viral response (SVR) improves survival for patients with hepatitis C (HCV) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after curative treatment; however, the benefit of SVR in those with active HCC with a significant competing risk of mortality is unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the association between SVR and outcomes in patients with active HCC. METHODS: The authors performed a multicenter, retrospective cohort study including consecutive adults with HCV cirrhosis and treatment-naive HCC diagnosed between 2014 and 2018. Patients were stratified into two groups: active viremia (n = 431) and SVR before HCC diagnosis (n = 135). All patients underwent nonsurgical therapy as their initial treatment and were followed until liver transplantation, last follow-up, or death. The primary outcome was incident or worsening hepatic decompensation within 6 months and the secondary outcome was overall survival. All analyses used inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) to account for differences between the nonrandomized cohorts. RESULTS: Post-SVR patients had significantly lower odds of hepatic decompensation compared to viremic patients (odds ratio [OR], 0.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.06-0.59). Results were consistent among subgroups of patients with Child Pugh A cirrhosis (OR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.04-0.77), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage B/C HCC (OR, 0.20; 95% CI, 0.04-0.65), and those receiving nonablative HCC therapies (OR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.07-0.67). However, in IPTW multivariable Cox regression, SVR was not associated with improved survival (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.56-1.12). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with HCV-related HCC and SVR are less likely to experience hepatic decompensation than viremic patients, suggesting patients with HCC who are undergoing nonsurgical therapies may benefit from DAA treatment

Recall patterns and risk of primary liver cancer for subcentimeter ultrasound liver observations: a multicenter study.

BackgroundPatients with cirrhosis and subcentimeter lesions on liver ultrasound are recommended to undergo short-interval follow-up ultrasound because of the presumed low risk of primary liver cancer (PLC).AimsThe aim of this study is to characterize recall patterns and risk of PLC in patients with subcentimeter liver lesions on ultrasound.MethodsWe conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study among patients with cirrhosis or chronic hepatitis B infection who had subcentimeter ultrasound lesions between January 2017 and December 2019. We excluded patients with a history of PLC or concomitant lesions ≥1 cm in diameter. We used Kaplan Meier and multivariable Cox regression analyses to characterize time-to-PLC and factors associated with PLC, respectively.ResultsOf 746 eligible patients, most (66.0%) had a single observation, and the median diameter was 0.7 cm (interquartile range: 0.5-0.8 cm). Recall strategies varied, with only 27.8% of patients undergoing guideline-concordant ultrasound within 3-6 months. Over a median follow-up of 26 months, 42 patients developed PLC (39 HCC and 3 cholangiocarcinoma), yielding an incidence of 25.7 cases (95% CI, 6.2-47.0) per 1000 person-years, with 3.9% and 6.7% developing PLC at 2 and 3 years, respectively. Factors associated with time-to-PLC were baseline alpha-fetoprotein >10 ng/mL (HR: 4.01, 95% CI, 1.85-8.71), platelet count ≤150 (HR: 4.90, 95% CI, 1.95-12.28), and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis (vs. Child-Pugh A: HR: 2.54, 95% CI, 1.27-5.08).ConclusionsRecall patterns for patients with subcentimeter liver lesions on ultrasound varied widely. The low risk of PLC in these patients supports short-interval ultrasound in 3-6 months, although diagnostic CT/MRI may be warranted for high-risk subgroups such as those with elevated alpha-fetoprotein levels

HCC EV ECG score: An extracellular vesicle-based protein assay for detection of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The sensitivity of current surveillance methods for detecting early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is suboptimal. Extracellular vesicles (EVs) are promising circulating biomarkers for early cancer detection. In this study, we aim to develop an HCC EV-based surface protein assay for early detection of HCC. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Tissue microarray was used to evaluate four potential HCC-associated protein markers. An HCC EV surface protein assay, composed of covalent chemistry-mediated HCC EV purification and real-time immuno-polymerase chain reaction readouts, was developed and optimized for quantifying subpopulations of EVs. An HCC EV ECG score, calculated from the readouts of three HCC EV subpopulations ( E pCAM + CD63 + , C D147 + CD63 + , and G PC3 + CD63 + HCC EVs), was established for detecting early-stage HCC. A phase 2 biomarker study was conducted to evaluate the performance of ECG score in a training cohort ( n  = 106) and an independent validation cohort ( n  = 72).Overall, 99.7% of tissue microarray stained positive for at least one of the four HCC-associated protein markers (EpCAM, CD147, GPC3, and ASGPR1) that were subsequently validated in HCC EVs. In the training cohort, HCC EV ECG score demonstrated an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90-0.99) for distinguishing early-stage HCC from cirrhosis with a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 90%. The AUROCs of the HCC EV ECG score remained excellent in the validation cohort (0.93; 95% CI, 0.87-0.99) and in the subgroups by etiology (viral: 0.95; 95% CI, 0.90-1.00; nonviral: 0.94; 95% CI, 0.88-0.99). CONCLUSION: HCC EV ECG score demonstrated great potential for detecting early-stage HCC. It could augment current surveillance methods and improve patients outcomes

Development and Validation of a Noninvasive Model for the Detection of High-Risk Varices in Patients with Unresectable HCC

Non-invasive variceal risk stratification systems have not been validated in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which presents logistical barriers for patients in the setting of systemic HCC therapy. We aimed to develop and validate a non-invasive algorithm for the prediction of varices in patients with unresectable HCC. We performed a retrospective cohort study in 21 centers in the US including adult patients with unresectable HCC and Child Pugh A5-B7 cirrhosis diagnosed between 2007 and2019. We included patients who completed an esophagogastroduodonoscopy (EGD) within 12 months of index imaging but prior to HCC treatment. We divided the cohort into a 70:30 training set and validation set, with the goal of maximizing negative predictive value (NPV) to avoid EGD in low-risk patients. We included 707 patients (median age 64.6 years, 80.6% male and 74.0% White). Median time from HCC diagnosis to EGD was 47 (IQR: 114) days, with 25.0% of patients having high-risk varices. A model using clinical variables alone achieved a NPV of 86.3% in the validation cohort, while a model integrating clinical and imaging variables had an NPV 97.4% in validation. The clinical and imaging model would avoid EGDs in over half of low-risk patients while misclassifying 7.7% of high-risk patients. A model incorporating clinical and imaging data can accurately predict the absence of high-risk varices in patients with HCC and avoid EGD in many low-risk patients prior to the initiation of systemic therapy, thus expediting their care and avoiding treatment delays