The effect of strict state measures on the epidemiologic curve of COVID-19 infection in the context of a developing country : a simulation from Jordan

COVID-19 has posed an unprecedented global public health threat and caused a significant number of severe cases that necessitated long hospitalization and overwhelmed health services in the most affected countries. In response, governments initiated a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that led to severe economic and social impacts. The effect of these intervention measures on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic are not well investigated within developing country settings. This study simulated the trajectories of the COVID-19 pandemic curve in Jordan between February and May and assessed the effect of Jordan’s strict NPI measures on the spread of COVID-19. A modified susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered (SEIR) epidemic model was utilized. The compartments in the proposed model categorized the Jordanian population into six deterministic compartments: suspected, exposed, infectious pre-symptomatic, infectious with mild symptoms, infectious with moderate to severe symptoms, and recovered. The GLEAMviz client simulator was used to run the simulation model. Epidemic curves were plotted for estimated COVID-19 cases in the simulation model, and compared against the reported cases. The simulation model estimated the highest number of total daily new COVID-19 cases, in the pre-symptomatic compartmental state, to be 65 cases, with an epidemic curve growing to its peak in 49 days and terminating in a duration of 83 days, and a total simulated cumulative case count of 1048 cases. The curve representing the number of actual reported cases in Jordan showed a good pattern compatibility to that in the mild and moderate to severe compartmental states. The reproduction number under the NPIs was reduced from 5.6 to less than one. NPIs in Jordan seem to be effective in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic and reducing the reproduction rate. Early strict intervention measures showed evidence of containing and suppressing the disease

Soft Tissue Sarcomas: A 16-Year Experience of a Tertiary Referral Hospital in North Jordan

Background and Objectives: Sarcomas are rare malignant tumors of mesenchymal origin. Their low prevalence and histological heterogeneity make their diagnosis a challenging task. To the best of our knowledge, the epidemiology of soft tissue sarcomas (STSs) was not well studied in Jordan. This study thus aimed to determine STS epidemiologic trends at King Abdullah University Hospital (KAUH); a tertiary hospital that provides cancer healthcare for 70% of the population in Irbid Governorate, North Jordan. The findings of this study will provide a good reference point of the burden of STSs in Jordan and the Middle East region. Materials and Methods: All cases with confirmed STS diagnoses who attended KAUH from January 2003 until December 2018 were included in the initial analysis. Bone sarcomas, gastrointestinal stromal tumors and uterine sarcomas were not included in the study. Information collected from the pathology reports and electronic medical records was used to determine STS prevalence, incidence rate, age and gender distributions, histological types and anatomic location. Cases were reviewed by three pathologists with interest in soft tissue tumors. The findings were compared with literature. Results: In total, 157 STS cases were reported (1.9% of cancers diagnosed at KAUH during the 16-year study period). Crude annual incidence rate (IR) per 100,000 person-years ranged from 0.48 in 2015 to 1.83 in 2011 (average = 1.04). Age-standardized IR (ASR)(World WHO 2000–2025) was 1.37. Male:female ratio was 1.3:1. Median age was 39 years. Age ranged from Conclusion: STSs are rare in North Jordan. A slight increase in their incidence was identified during the study period similar to global trends. The collection of relevant data on established risk factors along with a broader scale evaluation of the epidemiology of STS in the Middle East region is recommended to better evaluate disease burden and trends