A SaTScan™ Macro Accessory for Cartography (SMAC) Package Implemented with SAS® Software

Background: SaTScan is a software program written to implement the scan statistic; it can be used to find clusters in space and/or time. It must often be run multiple times per day when doing disease surveillance. Running SaTScan frequently via its graphical user interface can be cumbersome, and the output can be difficult to visualize. Results: The SaTScan Macro Accessory for Cartography (SMAC) package consists of four SAS macros and was designed as an easier way to run SaTScan multiple times and add graphical output. The package contains individual macros which allow the user to make the necessary input files for SaTScan, run SaTScan, and create graphical output all from within SAS software. The macros can also be combined to do this all in one step. Conclusion: The SMAC package can make SaTScan easier to use and can make the output more informative

A SaTScan™ macro accessory for cartography (SMAC) package implemented with SAS(® )software

BACKGROUND: SaTScan is a software program written to implement the scan statistic; it can be used to find clusters in space and/or time. It must often be run multiple times per day when doing disease surveillance. Running SaTScan frequently via its graphical user interface can be cumbersome, and the output can be difficult to visualize. RESULTS: The SaTScan Macro Accessory for Cartography (SMAC) package consists of four SAS macros and was designed as an easier way to run SaTScan multiple times and add graphical output. The package contains individual macros which allow the user to make the necessary input files for SaTScan, run SaTScan, and create graphical output all from within SAS software. The macros can also be combined to do this all in one step. CONCLUSION: The SMAC package can make SaTScan easier to use and can make the output more informative

in silico Surveillance: evaluating outbreak detection with simulation models

Background Detecting outbreaks is a crucial task for public health officials, yet gaps remain in the systematic evaluation of outbreak detection protocols. The authors’ objectives were to design, implement, and test a flexible methodology for generating detailed synthetic surveillance data that provides realistic geographical and temporal clustering of cases and use to evaluate outbreak detection protocols. Methods A detailed representation of the Boston area was constructed, based on data about individuals, locations, and activity patterns. Influenza-like illness (ILI) transmission was simulated, producing 100 years ofin silico ILI data. Six different surveillance systems were designed and developed using gathered cases from the simulated disease data. Performance was measured by inserting test outbreaks into the surveillance streams and analyzing the likelihood and timeliness of detection. Results Detection of outbreaks varied from 21% to 95%. Increased coverage did not linearly improve detection probability for all surveillance systems. Relaxing the decision threshold for signaling outbreaks greatly increased false-positives, improved outbreak detection slightly, and led to earlier outbreak detection. Conclusions Geographical distribution can be more important than coverage level. Detailed simulations of infectious disease transmission can be configured to represent nearly any conceivable scenario. They are a powerful tool for evaluating the performance of surveillance systems and methods used for outbreak detection

Use of outcomes to evaluate surveillance systems for bioterrorist attacks

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Syndromic surveillance systems can potentially be used to detect a bioterrorist attack earlier than traditional surveillance, by virtue of their near real-time analysis of relevant data. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis using the area under the curve (AUC) as a comparison metric has been recommended as a practical evaluation tool for syndromic surveillance systems, yet traditional ROC curves do not account for timeliness of detection or subsequent time-dependent health outcomes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a decision-analytic approach, we predicted outcomes, measured in lives, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs, for a series of simulated bioterrorist attacks. We then evaluated seven detection algorithms applied to syndromic surveillance data using outcomes-weighted ROC curves compared to simple ROC curves and timeliness-weighted ROC curves. We performed sensitivity analyses by varying the model inputs between best and worst case scenarios and by applying different methods of AUC calculation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The decision analytic model results indicate that if a surveillance system was successful in detecting an attack, and measures were immediately taken to deliver treatment to the population, the lives, QALYs and dollars lost could be reduced considerably. The ROC curve analysis shows that the incorporation of outcomes into the evaluation metric has an important effect on the apparent performance of the surveillance systems. The relative order of performance is also heavily dependent on the choice of AUC calculation method.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study demonstrates the importance of accounting for mortality, morbidity and costs in the evaluation of syndromic surveillance systems. Incorporating these outcomes into the ROC curve analysis allows for more accurate identification of the optimal method for signaling a possible bioterrorist attack. In addition, the parameters used to construct an ROC curve should be given careful consideration.</p

Simulated Anthrax Attacks and Syndromic Surveillance

Bioterrorism surveillance systems can be assessed using modeling to simulate real-world attacks

Telephone Triage Service Data for Detection of Influenza-Like Illness

Background: Surveillance for influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) is important for guiding public health prevention programs to mitigate the morbidity and mortality caused by influenza, including pandemic influenza. Nontraditional sources of data for influenza and ILI surveillance are of interest to public health authorities if their validity can be established. Methods/Principal Findings: National telephone triage call data were collected through automated means for purposes of syndromic surveillance. For the 17 states with at least 500,000 inhabitants eligible to use the telephone triage services, call volume for respiratory syndrome was compared to CDC weekly number of influenza isolates and percentage of visits to sentinel providers for ILI. The degree to which the call data were correlated with either CDC viral isolates or sentinel provider percentage ILI data was highly variable among states. Conclusions: Telephone triage data in the U.S. are patchy in coverage and therefore not a reliable source of ILI surveillance data on a national scale. However, in states displaying a higher correlation between the call data and the CDC data, call data may be useful as an adjunct to state-level surveillance data, for example at times when sentinel surveillance is not in operation or in areas where sentinel provider coverage is considered insufficient. Sufficient population coverage, a specific ILI syndrome definition, and the use of a threshold of percentage of calls that are for ILI would likely improve the utility of such data for ILI surveillance purposes

Exploring Trait-level Variance of Dispositional Need for Approval from Social Networks

The present research examines need for approval from social networks in regards to an\ud individual's relationship as a dispositional trait, varying at individual levels. In order to\ud explore trait-level need for approval, associations between need for approval and other\ud dispositional-level traits were examined, including self-esteem, attachment dimensions,\ud personality traits, including extraversion, neuroticism, and agreeableness, collectivistic and individualistic orientations, and the dimensions of autonomy and sociotropy.\ud Measurement of need for approval involved an original scale construction. Two-hundred\ud eighty participants completed a web-based questionnaire. Significant associations were identified between dispositional-need for approval and individualism, collectivism, attachment avoidance, sociotropy, extraversion (including its facet of warmth), and\ud agreeableness. These results suggest that need for approval from social networks is distinct, but related to individual difference dimensions