Discordance Between Patient-Predicted and Model-Predicted Life Expectancy Among Ambulatory Patients With Heart Failure

Patients with chronic heart failure have impaired long-term survival, but their own expectations regarding prognosis have not been well studied

Attitude Determination by Using Horizon and Sun Sensors

The Pointing and Alignment Workstation (PAWS) developed by Teledyne Brown Engineering (TBE) has successfully supported the first and second Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and Science (ATLAS 1, 2) spacelab missions for NASA. The primary PAWS objective was to provide realtime pointing information to instruments whose line of-sight is dependent on Shuttle attitude and to study/quantify the causes and effects of Shuttle and payload pointing errors. In addition to Shuttle IMU attitude information, PAWS used atmospheric science sensors data to determine the spacecraft attitude. PAWS successfully achieved these goals by acquiring and processing data during the ATLAS 1, 2 mission. This paper presents the attitude determination algorithm real time processing, and results of post mission analysis. The findings of this study include the quality of the horizon sensor and IMU measurements as well as accuracy of attitude processor algorithm

AN EVALUATION OF THE PRIA GRAZING FEE FORMULA

The federal grazing fee is currently set using the Public Rangeland Improvement Act (PRIA) fee formula established in 1978 and modified in 1986. The formula is adjusted annually using indices of private land grazing lease rates (Forage Value Index, FVI), prices received for beef cattle (Beef Cattle Price Index, BCPI), and costs of beef production (Prices Paid Index, PPI). The FVI tracks price movement in the private forage market and was the only index originally proposed to be included in the fee formula. Public land ranchers and an Interdepartmental Grazing Fee Technical Committee assigned to study grazing fee alternatives in the 1960s questioned the ability of the FVI to account for short-term demand, supply, and price equilibrium, and, for this reason, the BCPI and PPI were added to the fee formula. Over 30 years of data are now available to evaluate whether adding the BCPI and PPI did, in fact, help explain short-term market fluctuations. This analysis shows, as earlier studies did, that, if tracking the private forage market is the primary objective, then the fee formula should have included only the FVI. Including the BCPI and, especially, the PPI has caused calculated grazing fees to fall further and further behind private land lease rates. Had the $1.23 base fee in the PRIA formula been indexed by only the FVI, the federal grazing fee would have been$3.84/AUM instead of $1.35/AUM in 2000. It is time to consider the feasibility of a competitive bid system for public lands, or, at the very least, adopt a new fee formula that generates more equitable grazing fees.Land Economics/Use,

Real-World Safety of Neurohormonal Antagonist Initiation Among Older Adults Following a Heart Failure Hospitalization

AIMS: To optimize guideline-directed medical therapy for heart failure, patients may require the initiation of multiple neurohormonal antagonists (NHAs) during and following hospitalization. The safety of this approach for older adults is not well established. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted an observational cohort study of 207 223 Medicare beneficiaries discharged home following a hospitalization for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) (2008-2015). We performed Cox proportional hazards regression to examine the association between the count of NHAs initiated within 90 days of hospital discharge (as a time-varying exposure) and all-cause mortality, all-cause rehospitalization, and fall-related adverse events over the 90 day period following hospitalization. We calculated inverse probability-weighted hazard ratios (IPW-HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing initiation of 1, 2, or 3 NHAs vs. 0. The IPW-HRs for mortality were 0.80 [95% CI (0.78-0.83)] for 1 NHA, 0.70 [95% CI (0.66-0.75)] for 2, and 0.94 [95% CI (0.83-1.06)] for 3. The IPW-HRs for readmission were 0.95 [95% CI (0.93-0.96)] for 1 NHA, 0.89 [95% CI (0.86-0.91)] for 2, and 0.96 [95% CI (0.90-1.02)] for 3. The IPW-HRs for fall-related adverse events were 1.13 [95% CI (1.10-1.15)] for 1 NHA, 1.25 [95% CI (1.21-1.30)] for 2, and 1.64 [95% CI (1.54-1.76)] for 3. CONCLUSIONS: Initiating 1-2 NHAs among older adults within 90 days of HFrEF hospitalization was associated with lower mortality and lower readmission. However, initiating 3 NHAs was not associated with reduced mortality or readmission and was associated with a significant risk for fall-related adverse events

Sex-Specific Clinical Outcomes of the PACT-HF Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND: Transitional care may have different effects in males and females hospitalized for heart failure. We assessed the sex-specific effects of a transitional care model on clinical outcomes following hospitalization for heart failure. METHODS: In this stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial of adults hospitalized for heart failure in Ontario, Canada, 10 hospitals were randomized to a group of transitional care services or usual care. Outcomes in this exploratory analysis were composite all-cause readmission, emergency department visit, or death at 6 months; and composite all-cause readmission or emergency department visit at 6 months. Models were adjusted for stepped-wedge design and patient age. RESULTS: Among 2494 adults, mean (SD) age was 77.7 (12.1) years, and 1258 (50.4%) were female. The first composite outcome occurred in 371 (66.3%) versus 433 (64.1%) males (hazard ratio [HR], 1.04 [95% CI, 0.86-1.26]; P=0.67) and in 326 (59.9%) versus 463 (64.8%) females (HR, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.69-1.01]; P=0.06) in the intervention and usual care groups, respectively (P=0.012 for sex interaction). The second composite outcome occurred in 357 (63.8%) versus 417 (61.7%) males (HR, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.85-1.24]; P=0.76) and 314 (57.7%) versus 450 (63.0%) females (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.67-0.99]; P=0.037) in the intervention and usual care groups, respectively (P=0.024 for sex interaction). The sex differences were driven by a reduction in all-cause emergency department visits among females (HR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.51-0.87]; P=0.003), but not males (HR, 1.10 [95% CI, 0.85-1.43]; P=0.46), receiving the intervention (P<0.001 for sex interaction). CONCLUSIONS: A transitional care model offered a reduction in all-cause emergency department visits among females but not males following hospitalization for heart failure. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02112227

Risk of Heart Failure in Breast Cancer Patients After Anthracycline and Trastuzumab Treatment: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background: Clinical trials demonstrated that women treated for breast cancer with anthracycline or trastuzumab are at increased risk for heart failure and/or cardiomyopathy (HF/CM), but the generalizability of these findings is unknown. We estimated real-world adjuvant anthracycline and trastuzumab use and their associations with incident HF/CM. Methods We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study of 12 500 women diagnosed with incident, invasive breast cancer from January 1, 1999 through December 31, 2007, at eight integrated Cancer Research Network health systems. Using administrative procedure and pharmacy codes, we identified anthracycline, trastuzumab, and other chemotherapy use. We identified incident HF/CM following chemotherapy initiation and assessed risk of HF/CM with time-varying chemotherapy exposures vs no chemotherapy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with adjustment for age at diagnosis, stage, Cancer Research Network site, year of diagnosis, radiation therapy, and comorbidities. Results: Among 12 500 women (mean age &#x003D; 60 years, range &#x003D; 22–99 years), 29.6% received anthracycline alone, 0.9% received trastuzumab alone, 3.5% received anthracycline plus trastuzumab, 19.5% received other chemotherapy, and 46.5% received no chemotherapy. Anthracycline and trastuzumab recipients were younger, with fewer comorbidities than recipients of other chemotherapy or none. Compared with no chemotherapy, the risk of HF/CM was higher in patients treated with anthracycline alone (adjusted HR &#x003D; 1.40, 95% CI &#x003D; 1.11 to 1.76), although the increased risk was similar to other chemotherapy (adjusted HR &#x003D; 1.49, 95% CI &#x003D; 1.25 to 1.77); the risk was highly increased in patients treated with trastuzumab alone (adjusted HR &#x003D; 4.12, 95% CI &#x003D; 2.30 to 7.42) or anthracycline plus trastuzumab (adjusted HR &#x003D; 7.19, 95% CI &#x003D; 5.00 to 10.35). Conclusions: Anthracycline and trastuzumab were primarily used in younger, healthier women and associated with increased HF/CM risk compared with no chemotherapy. This population-based observational study complements findings from clinical trials on cancer treatment safety

Use of Risk Models to Predict Death in the Next Year Among Individual Ambulatory Patients With Heart Failure

Importance: The clinical practice guidelines for heart failure recommend the use of validated risk models to estimate prognosis. Understanding how well models identify individuals who will die in the next year informs decision making for advanced treatments and hospice. Objective: To quantify how risk models calculated in routine practice estimate more than 50% 1-year mortality among ambulatory patients with heart failure who die in the subsequent year. Design, Setting, and Participants: Ambulatory adults with heart failure from 3 integrated health systems were enrolled between 2005 and 2008. The probability of death was estimated using the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk calculator. Baseline covariates were collected from electronic health records. Missing covariates were imputed. Estimated mortality was compared with actual mortality at both population and individual levels. Main Outcomes and Measures: One-year mortality. Results: Among 10930 patients with heart failure, the median age was 77 years, and 48.0% of these patients were female. In the year after study enrollment, 1661 patients died (15.9% by life-table analysis). At the population level, 1-year predicted mortality among the cohort was 9.7% for the SHFM (C statistic of 0.66) and 17.5% for the MAGGIC risk calculator (C statistic of 0.69). At the individual level, the SHFM predicted a more than 50% probability of dying in the next year for 8 of the 1661 patients who died (sensitivity for 1-year death was 0.5%) and for 5 patients who lived at least a year (positive predictive value, 61.5%). The MAGGIC risk calculator predicted a more than 50% probability of dying in the next year for 52 of the 1661 patients who died (sensitivity, 3.1%) and for 63 patients who lived at least a year (positive predictive value, 45.2%). Conversely, the SHFM estimated that 8496 patients (77.8%) had a less than 15% probability of dying at 1 year, yet this lower-risk end of the score range captured nearly two-thirds of deaths (n = 997); similarly, the MAGGIC risk calculator estimated a probability of dying of less than 25% for the majority of patients who died at 1 year (n = 914). Conclusions and Relevance: Although heart failure risk models perform reasonably well at the population level, they do not reliably predict which individual patients will die in the next year

Biologic Rhythms Derived from Siberian Mammoths' Hairs

Hair is preserved for millennia in permafrost; it enshrines a record of biologic rhythms and offers a glimpse at chronobiology as it was in extinct animals. Here we compare biologic rhythms gleaned from mammoth's hairs with those of modern human hair. Four mammoths' hairs came from varying locations in Siberia 4600 km, four time zones, apart ranging in age between 18,000 and 20,000 years before present. We used two contemporaneous human hairs for comparison. Power spectra derived from hydrogen isotope ratios along the length of the hairs gave insight into biologic rhythms, which were different in the mammoths depending on location and differed from humans. Hair growth for mammoths was ∼31 cms/year and ∼16 cms/year for humans. Recurrent annual rhythms of slow and fast growth varying from 3.4 weeks/cycles to 8.7 weeks/cycles for slow periods and 1.2 weeks/cycles to 2.2 weeks/cycles for fast periods were identified in mammoth's hairs. The mineral content of mammoth's hairs was measured by electron microprobe analysis (k-ratios), which showed no differences in sulfur amongst the mammoth hairs but significantly more iron then in human hair. The fractal nature of the data derived from the hairs became evident in Mandelbrot sets derived from hydrogen isotope ratios, mineral content and geographic location. Confocal microscopy and scanning electron microscopy showed varied degrees of preservation of the cuticle largely independent of age but not location of the specimens. X-ray fluorescence microprobe and fluorescence computed micro-tomography analyses allowed evaluation of metal distribution and visualization of hollow tubes in the mammoth's hairs. Seasonal variations in iron and copper content combined with spectral analyses gave insights into variation in food intake of the animals. Biologic rhythms gleaned from power spectral plots obtained by modern methods revealed life style and behavior of extinct mega-fauna