Parameter estimates of the single season occupancy models fitted using MLE, VB and MCMC.

<p>Parameter estimates of the single season occupancy models fitted using MLE, VB and MCMC.</p

Predictive distribution of the proportions of occupied sites using the VB Laplace method and the MCMC method for the different bird species.

<p>The accuracy statistics (<i>acc</i>(<i>x</i>)) are displayed in brackets. The <i>acc</i>(<i>x</i>) measure lies between 0 and 1 with a value of 1 indicating a perfect approximation and a value close to 0 indicating a poor approximation by the variational distribution to the true posterior distribution.</p

The median coverage probability and credibility/confidence interval widths of the covariate effects for the single season occupancy model.

<p>The median coverage probability and credibility/confidence interval widths of the covariate effects for the single season occupancy model.</p

Box plots of the accuracy measurements for the model parameters associated with the Laplace (L-dark boxes) and Tangent (T-light boxes) based method for number of sites <i>n</i> = 50, 100 and number of visits to each site <i>K</i> = 2, 5.

<p>The detection and occupancy probabilities are approximately 0:5. The accuracy of the VB approximations is measured by calculating The measure lies between 0 and 1 with a value of 1 indicating a perfect approximation and a value close to 0 indicating a poor approximation by the variational distribution to the true posterior distribution.</p

Summary statistics of the posterior predictive distributions of the proportion of sites occupied using the MCMC method and the VB method for different scenarios. (<i>n</i> = 100.).

<p>Summary statistics of the posterior predictive distributions of the proportion of sites occupied using the MCMC method and the VB method for different scenarios. (<i>n</i> = 100.).</p

Summary statistics of the posterior predictive distributions of the proportion of sites occupied using the MCMC method and the VB method for the five bird species considered.

<p>Summary statistics of the posterior predictive distributions of the proportion of sites occupied using the MCMC method and the VB method for the five bird species considered.</p

Parameters estimation by fitting model to weekly malaria cases of WBGZ.

<p>The deterministic model (for both human and vector) trajectories and model assessment (lines) run against the WBGZ data (points) for 2011, with <i>ϵ</i> = 79.50, <i>b</i> = 0.79836, <i>α</i>₁ = 0.025, <i>α</i>₃ = 0.01785714, <i>σ</i>_<i>i</i> = 0.06274 and initial state value (<i>S</i> = 266745, <i>E</i> = 0, <i>I</i> = 200, <i>A</i> = 0, <i>R</i> = 0, <i>X</i> = 500, <i>Y</i> = 0, <i>Z</i> = 0); the mean and the median as well as the 95th and 50th percentiles of the replicated simulations are displayed.</p

Reported weekly malaria cases between 2011 and 2015.

<p>Weekly malaria reported cases from the beginning of 2011 until end of 2015 in Central Equatoria State (CES), Western Bahr El Ghazal State (WBZ) and Warrap State (WRP). The data was obtained from National Malaria Control Programme of South Sudan (NMCP).</p

Prediction of malaria infections.

<p>Projected cases of malaria in hundred thousands of people with: No interventions of LLINs, coverage based on 2009 LLINs distribution, and additional coverage of LLINs; (A) in Central Equatoria, (B) in Western Bahr-El-Ghazal and (C) in Warrap.</p

South Sudan selected state analysis map.

<p>South Sudan selected state analysis map.</p