Causal loop diagram of surveillance in its systems setting.

<p>Causal loop diagram of surveillance in its systems setting.</p

A system dynamics model of the interface between surveillance and disease spread.

<p>A system dynamics model of the interface between surveillance and disease spread.</p

Decay curve relating disease incidence with surveillance efforts over time.

<p>Decay curve relating disease incidence with surveillance efforts over time.</p

Alternative paths of disease incidence over time.

<p>Alternative paths of disease incidence over time.</p

The effect of incorporating farm heterogeneity and/or behavioural feedback mechanisms on the observed prevalence of infected farms after a disease incursion event.

<p>The effect of incorporating farm heterogeneity and/or behavioural feedback mechanisms on the observed prevalence of infected farms after a disease incursion event.</p

Sensitivity of net economic surplus for Scotland to elasticity of demand and supply.

<p>The sensitivity of aggregated net economic surplus (million £) for Scotland following an outbreak of Johne’s with respect to variation in the elasticity of demand, <i>η</i>, (-0.50 to 0.00), and elasticity of supply, <i>ε</i>, (1.5; 1.6; 1.7; 1.8; 1.9; 2.0).</p

Economic welfare model input parameters.

<p>Economic welfare model input parameters.</p

Costs associated with the presence of Johne’s disease.

<p>Costs associated with the presence of Johne’s disease.</p

Impact of an inelastic and elastic demand curve on equilibrium market price and quantity.

<p>The impact of an inelastic and elastic demand curve on equilibrium market price and quantity associated with a reduction in milk production following an outbreak of Johne’s disease. The inelastic, <i>D</i>_<i>In</i>, and elastic, <i>D</i>_<i>El</i>, demand curve determine the responsiveness of consumers to new equilibrium market price, <i>P</i>^<i>1</i>. A more inelastic demand curve, <i>D</i>_<i>In</i>, (i.e. the demand curve is steeper in shape) reflects a larger loss in economic welfare, represented by shaded area, relative to a relatively more elastic demand curve, <i>D</i>_<i>Eln</i>, represented by area.</p

Net economic surplus for stakeholder groups (infected producers, uninfected producers, consumers) and Scotland in a year following the introduction of Johne’s, per cow and household under alternative Johne’s disease national herd prevalence scenarios (i.e. 7.5%, 17.5% and 27.5%) in pounds [euros^a].

<p>Net economic surplus for stakeholder groups (infected producers, uninfected producers, consumers) and Scotland in a year following the introduction of Johne’s, per cow and household under alternative Johne’s disease national herd prevalence scenarios (i.e. 7.5%, 17.5% and 27.5%) in pounds [euros<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0198436#t004fn001" target="_blank">^a</a>].</p