Robust TIR satellite techniques for monitoring earthquake active regions: limits, main achievements and perspectives

In the last few years, Robust Satellite data analysis Techniques (RST) have been proposed which significantly improved present capabilities to investigate possible relations between TIR signal fluctuations and earthquake occurrence. This paper, starting from a critical survey of results achieved by applying different RST-based algorithms to different satellite sensors to approximately ten earthquakes (two of them are discussed here for the first time) which occurred in three different continents, tries to offer a first assessment of main achievements, residual limits and perspectives of such studies. Even if it is still not possible to relate (or to exclude) observed anomalous TIR transients definitely to impending earthquakes, such studies demonstrate at least: a) the strong improvement of S/N ratio achievable moving from polar to geostationary satellites; b) the further S/N improvement achievable by using TIR sensors which also offer split-window possibilities; c) the crucial role played by a space-time persistence test to select TIR anomalies candidate to be associated to impending earthquakes; d) the possibility of identifying and correctly discarding TIR anomalies related to clouds and to image navigation errors; e) the scarce importance of spatial resolution of observations which encourages the use of passive MW sensors which are less affected by atmospheric conditions

RST analysis of MSG-SEVIRI TIR radiances at the time of the Abruzzo 6 April 2009 earthquake

Space-time fluctuations of Earth's emitted Thermal Infrared (TIR) radiation have been observed from satellite months to weeks before earthquakes occurrence. The general RST approach has been proposed in order to discriminate normal (i.e. related to the change of natural factor and/or observation conditions) TIR signal fluctuations from anomalous signal transient possibly associated to earthquake occurrence. In this work RST approach is applied to the Abruzzo 6 April 2009 event (M(L)=5.8) by using for the first time MSG-SEVIRI (Meteosat Second Generation -Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager) thermal infrared observations. A validation/confutation analysis has been performed in order to verify the presence/absence of anomalous space-time TIR transients in the presence/absence of significant seismic activity. March-April 2009 has been analyzed for validation purposes. Relatively unperturbed periods (no earthquakes with M(L)>= 5) have been taken for confutation. A specific TIR anomalies space-time persistence analysis as well as a cloud coverage distribution test have been introduced in order to eliminate artifacts and outliers both in the validation and confutation phases. Preliminary results show clear differences in TIR anomalies occurrence during the periods used for validation and confutation purposes. Quite clear TIR anomalies appear also to mark main tectonic lines related to the preparatory phases of others, low magnitude (M(L)similar to 4) earthquakes, occurred in the area

Robust satellite techniques (RST) for seismically active areas monitoring: the case of 21st May, 2003 Boumerdes/Thenia (Algeria) earthquake

In the last decades, several authors have claimed a space-time correlation between increases of Earth's emitted Thermal Infra-Red (TIR) radiation and earthquake activity interpreting such TIR signals as seismic precursors. The main problems of such studies regard data analysis and interpretation, which are often done without a validation/confutation test. In this context, a robust data analysis technique (RST, i.e. Robust Satellite Techniques) was developed which permits a statistically based definition of an "anomaly" and uses a validation/confutation approach. This technique was already applied to satellite TIR surveys in seismic regions for tens of earthquakes occurred in Europe, Asia and America. In this work, the RST approach has been applied for the first time to the African region to assess its potentialities in different geographical and climatic conditions. Eight years of Meteosat TIR observations have been analyzed in order to characterize the TIR signal behaviour in absence of significant seismic activity. Boumerdes/Thenia (Algeria) earthquake (occurred on 21th May 2003, Mb= 6.8) has been considered as test case for validation purpose, while a relatively unperturbed period (no earthquakes with Mbges4) has been analyzed in the confutation phase. The results show in the area of interest positive space-time persistent TIR anomalies about one month before the main shock (validation). Such anomalies generally overlap the principal tectonic lineaments of the region, sometimes focusing in the vicinity of the earthquake epicentre. No significant (in terms of relative intensity and space-time pemstence) TIR anomalies were detected during less seismically perturbed periods (confutation)

Robust satellite techniques (RST) for the thermal monitoring of earthquake prone areas: the case of Umbria-Marche October, 1997 seismic events

Several authors claim a space-time correlation between increases in Earths emitted Thermal Infra-Red (TIR) radiation and earthquake occurrence. The main problems of such studies regard data analysis and interpretation, which are often done without a validation/confutation control. In this context, a robust data analysis technique (RST, i.e. Robust Satellite Techniques) is proposed which permits a statistically based definition of TIR «anomaly » and uses a validation/confutation approach. This technique was already applied to satellite TIR surveys in seismic regions for about twenty earthquakes that occurred in the world. In this work RST is applied for the first time to a time sequence of seismic events. Nine years of Meteosat TIR observations have been analyzed to characterize the unperturbed TIR signal behaviour at specific observation times and locations. The main seismic events of the October 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence have been considered for validation, and relatively unperturbed periods (no earthquakes with Mb ? 4) were taken for confutation purposes. Positive time-space persistent TIR anomalies were observed during seismic periods, generally overlapping the principal tectonic lineaments of the region and sometimes focusing on the vicinity of the epicentre. No similar (in terms of relative intensity and space-time persistence) TIR anomalies were detected during seismically unperturbed periods

A robust satellite technique for monitoring seismically active areas: the case of Bhuj - Gujarat earthquake.

A robust satellite data analysis technique (RAT) has been recently proposed as a suitable tool for satellite TIR surveys in seismically active regions and already successfully tested in different cases of earthquakes (both high and medium–low magnitudes). In this paper, the efficiency and the potentialities of the RAT technique have been tested even when it is applied to a wide area with extremely variable topography, land coverage and climatic characteristics (the whole Indian subcontinent). Bhuj–Gujarat's earthquake (occurred on 26th January 2001, MS ∼ 7.9) has been considered as a test case in the validation phase, while a relatively unperturbed period (no earthquakes with MS ≥ 5, in the same region and in the same period) has been analyzed for confutation purposes. To this aim, 6 years of Meteosat-5 TIR observations have been processed for the characterization of the TIR signal behaviour at each specific observation time and location. The anomalous TIR values, detected by RAT, have been evaluated in terms of time–space persistence in order to establish the existence of actually significant anomalous transients. The results indicate that the studied area was affected by significant positive thermal anomalies which were identified, at different intensity levels, not far from the Gujarat coast (since 15th January, but with a clearer evidence on 22nd January) and near the epicentral area (mainly on 21st January). On 25th January (1 day before Gujarat's earthquake) significant TIR anomalies appear on the Northern Indian subcontinent, showing a remarkable coincidence with the principal tectonic lineaments of the region (thrust Himalayan boundary). On the other hand, the results of the confutation analysis indicate that no meaningful TIR anomalies appear in the absence of seismic events with MS ≥ 5

Statistical Correlation Analysis Between Thermal Infrared Anomalies Observed From MTSATs and Large Earthquakes Occurred in Japan (2005–2015)

The literature often reports space‐time relations between the abnormal variations of different kinds of non‐seismological (i.e. geophysical, geochemical, atmospheric, etc.) parameters and the occurrence of earthquakes. The integration of such observations with seismological ones could improve the quality of the seismic hazard assessment in the medium‐short term (months to days). Each considered parameter has, in principle, its capabilities to provide useful (and utilizable) information about seismic processes. Therefore, to define a system based on different observations, the first step is to estimate the informative contribution that each considered parameter could provide. In this paper, we will evaluate the potential of Significant Sequences of satellite Thermal Anomalies (SSTAs). In particular, we adopted the broadly used Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) data analysis methodology to identify SSTAs over 11 years (June 2005 ‐ December 2015) of night‐time satellite images acquired by MTSAT satellites over Japan. Aiming at reducing the false‐positive rate, we introduced and tested an innovative configuration of the RST technique, which is here presented. We executed a correlation analysis between SSTAs and Japanese earthquakes with MJMA≥6 by applying suitable constraints concerning space, time, and magnitude. The analysis highlights: a) the occurrence of just 29 SSTAs in the 11‐year period of observation, b) 18 SSTAs (i.e. 62%) occur in an apparent space‐time relation to earthquakes, c) 13 of them occur before the quake. Results of the random test analysis, based on error diagrams, confirm a non‐casual correlation between ‘RST‐based satellite thermal anomalies’ and earthquake occurrences. In particular, for MJMA≥6.5 earthquakes, probability gain is up to better than 4.3 as compared with the random guess

TIR Satellite Techniques for monitoring Earthquake active regions: limits, main achievements and perspectives

In the last few years, Robust Satellite data analysis Techniques (RST) have been proposed which significantly improved present capabilities to investigate possible relations between TIR signal fluctuations and earthquake occurrence. This paper, starting from a critical survey of results achieved by applying different RST-based algorithms to different satellite sensors to approximately ten earthquakes (two of them are discussed here for the first time) which occurred in three different continents, tries to offer a first assessment of main achievements, residual limits and perspectives of such studies. Even if it is still not possible to relate (or to exclude) observed anomalous TIR transients definitely to impending earthquakes, such studies demonstrate at least: a) the strong improvement of S/N ratio achievable moving from polar to geostationary satellites; b) the further S/N improvement achievable by using TIR sensors which also offer split-window possibilities; c) the crucial role played by a space-time persistence test to select TIR anomalies candidate to be associated to impending earthquakes; d) the possibility of identifying and correctly discarding TIR anomalies related to clouds and to image navigation errors; e) the scarce importance of spatial resolution of observations which encourages the use of passive MW sensors which are less affected by atmospheric conditions

Vitamin D and Omega 3 Field Study on Progression of Type 1 Diabetes

Chronic inflammation has been linked to the progression of type 1 diabetes (T1D). Supplementation with vitamin D and omega-3 fatty acids, which have anti-inflammatory properties, may slow or stop the progression of T1D. A field study is underway to assess the relationship between these nutrients and T1D progression among auto-antibody positive individuals who have not been diagnosed with T1D. The T1D Prevention Field Study is currently recruiting participants to complete online health surveys and home blood-spot tests for 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], Omega-3 Index, AA:EPA Ratio, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and HbA1c every three to four months for 5 years. Participants (or their parents/guardians) are given information about the importance of achieving a 25(OH)D level between 40–60 ng/ml and an AA:EPA Ratio between 1.5–3.0 to reduce inflammation. However, participants are free to choose their own supplement or dietary regimens. Data analysis will focus on associations between vitamin D and omega-3 status and progression of T1D. Initial enrollment in the T1D Prevention Field Study includes 103 participants from fifteen countries; total enrollment is expected to reach at least 400 participants by the end of 2022. The field study approach allows for cost-effective research that capitalizes on new technologies for recruitment, data collection, and blood level testing from home. However, some challenges have arisen. Many individuals are reading the open source protocols and some choose to supplement and test on their own so incentives may be needed to increase enrollment. Additionally, some participants do not have access to auto-antibody testing or are unable to get access to their test results; therefore, there is a need to provide blood spot auto-antibody testing through the field study