Trade Partner Diversification and Growth: How Trade Links Matter

We analyze the e ects of a country\u27s export connections on its income growth using Trade Partner Diversi cation (TPD) measures that capture the country\u27s relative importance in the international trade network. On top of the standard trade openness measures, TPD measures are shown to enter growth regressions positively and significantly, where one standard deviation increase in TPD is associated with a 1 to 1.5 percentage point increase in the annual growth rate. Threshold analyses show that TPD measures are positively and significantly correlated with growth in countries that have low financial depth, high inflation, low levels of human capital, or high trade openness

Incentives and the Effects of Publication Lags on Life Cycle Research Productivity in Economics

We investigate how increases in publication delays have affected the life-cycle of publications of recent Ph.D. graduates in economics. We construct a panel dataset of 14,271 individuals who were awarded Ph.D.s between 1986 and 2000 in US and Canadian economics departments. For this population of scholars, we amass complete records of publications in peer reviewed journals listed in the JEL (a total of 368,672 observations). We find evidence of significantly diminished productivity in recent relative to earlier cohorts when productivity of an individual is measured by the number of AER equivalent publications. Diminished productivity is less evident when number of AER equivalent pages is used instead. Our findings are consistent with earlier empirical findings of increasing editorial delays, decreasing acceptance rates at journals, and a trend toward longer manuscripts. This decline in productivity is evident in both graduates of top thirty and non-top thirty ranked economics departments and may have important implications for what should constitute a tenurable record. We also find that the research rankings of the faculty do not line up with the research quality of their students in many cases.

Capital Tax Competition When Monetary Competition is Present

In a model that allows for international trade in goods market as well as in money markets, interactions between the capital tax rate and the inflation rate are investigated. It is shown that interactions of capital tax rate and inflation rate create horizontal and vertical externalities. Optimal levels of the capital tax rate and the inflation rate depend on how these externalities dominate one another. If a currency union is formed, the inflation rate that prevails across the currency union will be higher than the inflation rate in either country under monetary independence, and national public good provision will be suboptimally high. Inflation elasticities of the demand for a country’s national currency determine whether capital taxes will be higher or lower under single currency in that country.Inflation Tax; Capital Tax Competition; Currency Union

State Taxes, Tax Exemptions, and Elderly Migration

We use 1995-2000 interstate migration data for the elderly population in the U.S. to test how taxes and specific tax exemptions affect migration decisions. We show that the elderly prefer to migrate to states with low inheritance taxes, high property taxes, low amounts of federal revenue transfers, low cost of living, and higher average temperatures. The preference for high property taxes in destination states may be an indication that the elderly prefer loca-tions where local amenities are capitalized into property values, since the elderly tend to be empty-nesters and presumably own properties that are on average smaller and less valuable. We show that exempting pension payments from income tax affects elderly out-migration negatively and significantly, while exempting prescription drug sales from sales tax affects el-derly in-migration positively and significantly. As in the case of the preference for higher property taxes, free-riding behavior may be an explanation for these preferences

Elderly Migration, State Taxes, and What They Reveal

Empirical results obtained from the 2000 Census elderly migration data using a general gravity model of migration flows confirm earlier findings of the ‘same sign problem’ in the literature, which means that the elderly both migrate from and to states where taxes are higher. The same sign problem is mainly an aggregation problem, and it can be attributed to the heterogeneity in public policies across states that attract the most migrants as well as across states that lose the most migrants. We propose that in a state-level aggregated dataset, it is possible to control for heterogeneity in states’ public policies by controlling for some characteristics of either the origin or the destination state. In a gravity equation estimation for elderly migration, when controlled for heterogeneity, the same sign problem fades away, and the gravity equation shows clearer patterns for elderly migration. In particular, local amenities, tax exemptions, and low inheritance taxes are shown to be significant variables in attracting the elderly into a state.Tiebout Hypothesis; Migration; Taxation; State Taxes; Amenities

Are all High-Skilled Cohorts Created Equal? Unemployment, Gender, and Research Productivity

Using life cycle publication data of 9,368 economics PhD graduates from 127 U.S. institutions, we investigate how unemployment in the U.S. economy prior to starting graduate studies and at the time of entry into the academic job market affect economics PhD graduates’ research productivity. We analyze the period between 1987 and 1996 and find that favorable conditions at the time of academic job search have a positive effect on research productivity (measured in numbers of publications) for both male and female graduates. On the other hand, unfavourable employment conditions at the time of entry into graduate school affects female research productivity negatively, but male productivity positively. These findings are consistent with the notion that men and women differ in their perception of risk in high skill occupations. In the specific context of research-active occupations that require high skill and costly investment in human capital, an ex post poor return on undergraduate educational investment may cause women to opt for less risky and secure occupations while men seem more likely to “double down” on their investment in human capital. Further investigation, however, shows that additional factors may also be at work

Incentives and the Effects of Publication Lags on Life Cycle Research Productivity in Economics

We investigate how increases in publication delays have affected the life-cycle of publications of recent Ph.D. graduates in economics. We construct a panel dataset of 14,271 individuals who were awarded Ph.D.s between 1986 and 2000 in US and Canadian economics departments. For this population of scholars, we amass complete records of publications in peer reviewed journals listed in the JEL (a total of 368,672 observations). We find evidence of significantly diminished productivity in recent relative to earlier cohorts when productivity of an individual is measured by the number of AER equivalent publications. Diminished productivity is less evident when number of AER equivalent pages is used instead. Our findings are consistent with earlier empirical findings of increasing editorial delays, decreasing acceptance rates at journals, and a trend toward longer manuscripts. This decline in productivity is evident in both graduates of top thirty and non-top thirty ranked economics departments and may have important implications for what should constitute a tenurable record. We also find that the research rankings of the faculty do not line up with the research quality of their students in many cases.Academia, Economists, Research Productivity, Performance Evaluation, Tenure Process, Graduate Programs, Department Rankings