Optimum Depletion of Oil Resources in a Developing Country

The majority of resource-based developing countries finance a high percentage of their development efforts through extraction and export of nonrenewable natural resources. Though the extraction and export policies of these countries might be subject to noneconomic international causes and effects (i.e., those that do not easily yield to empirical analysis (Mikdashi, 1976)), the need for each country to plan and implement an optimal and consistent policy in this regard is already well established (Meier 1984; Kemp and Long 1984; Neary and Wijnbergen 1986).

AN ANALYSIS OF CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS: 2002-2009 PERIOD

ABSTRAC

Currency Volatility and Bid-Ask Spreads of ADRs and Local Shares

This paper examines the impact of currency volatilities on the average monthly spreads in ADRs and their underlying local shares. We employ a novel estimator for spreads based on two-day-period high and low values of a comprehensive universe of stocks over fifteen years using dynamic panel data estimation. Surprisingly, we find that currency volatility has a larger impact on spreads of ADRs than on their underlying local shares. This adds novel information to the well-documented evidence that local shares and exchange rate variations are the primary drivers of ADR returns. FX implied volatility accounts for about 16.6% of the variance in our sample. We also observe that, on average, ADR spreads are smaller than the spreads on their corresponding underlying shares. We posit that size matters and therefore provide measures of the economic significance of all our estimated results

M1, M2, and the U.S. Equity Exchanges

We study the relative positions of M1 and M2 in light of their relationships with four U. S. equity exchanges: S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, and Wilshire 5000 composite. It is demonstrated that a long-term equilibrium relationship does indeed exist. Short-run dynamics are also considered and are found to be temporary departures from the long-run equilibrium. Based on a model, which yields robust estimated results and is thus considered well behaved, the direction of causality is established. The model is then put further to test to check the predictive power of the M1 and M2 money aggregates. Based on a set of in- and out-of-sample forecast experiments, the results overwhelmingly indicate that M2 is a better predictive measure and hence a superior indicator than M1. The policy implications of these findings in light of the post financial crisis and the November 2010 US Fed “quantitative easing” policies are discussed.Money supply, M1, M2, Stock return, Granger causality, Error Correction Model, Forecasting.

The information content of currency option-implied volatilities: implications for ex-ante forecasts of global equity correlations

We use existing currency models, global capital flows, international parity, the Taylor rule, and some simplifying assumptions to derive and empirically test a link between the information contained in currency option-implied volatilities and future global equity correlations. Using data from January 1999 to May 2020, we test our hypothesis and find that exchange rate option-implied volatilities — coupled with one-period ex-post correlations — more accurately predict subsequent world equity market correlations than other models. Our findings have implications for portfolio diversification, forecasts of overall equity portfolio volatility, and portfolio optimization

The Evolution and Future of the BRICS: Unbundling Politics from Economics

Under the current global forces, economics muddled with politics is exerting undue pressures on the BRICS countries and is challenging the sustainability of their accord. Unanticipated problems are increasingly inhibiting economic and social prosperity. This paper analyzes the current difficulties that the BRICS are facing, scrutinizes their unique individual economic and political environments, and ventures to anticipate their prospects. Our consensus is that the future prosperity of these countries depends not only on their individual political and economic environments, but also on the major global powers. Furthermore, the current inevitable interconnectivity of politics and economics provides foresight into their future role on the world stage