660 research outputs found

    The impact of disease control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in the province of Sindh, Pakistan

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    The province of Sindh reported the first COVID-19 case in Pakistan on 26(th) February 2020. The Government of Sindh has employed numerous control measures to limit its spread. However, for low-and middle-income countries such as Pakistan, the management protocols for controlling a pandemic are not always as definitive as they would be in other developed nations. Given the dire socio-economic conditions of Sindh, continuation of province-wise lockdowns may inadvertently cause a potential economic breakdown. By using a data driven SEIR modelling framework, this paper describes the evolution of the epidemic projections because of government control measures. The data from reported COVID-19 prevalence and google mobility is used to parameterize the model at different time points. These time points correspond to the government’s call for advice on the prerequisite actions required to curtail the spread of COVID-19 in Sindh. Our model predicted the epidemic peak to occur by 18(th) June 2020 with approximately 3500 reported cases at that peak, this projection correlated with the actual recorded peak during the first wave of the disease in Sindh. The impact of the governmental control actions and religious ceremonies on the epidemic profile during this first wave of COVID-19 are clearly reflected in the model outcomes through variations in the epidemic peaks. We also report these variations by displaying the trajectory of the epidemics had the control measures been guided differently; the epidemic peak may have occurred as early as the end of May 2020 with approximately 5000 reported cases per day had there been no control measures and as late as August 2020 with only around 2000 cases at the peak had the lockdown continued, nearly flattening the epidemic curve

    Haematologic Parameters In Acute Promyelocytic Leukemia Patients Treated With ALL Trans- Retinoic acid

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    Background: Acute Promyelocytic Leukemia (APL) is commonly associated with disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) and early correction of coagulopathy is of vital importance. All Trans-Retinoic Acid (ATRA) is considered to be the drug of choice in the treatment of APL.  Objective: The work was conducted to 1- Identify patients with APL who show laboratory evidence of DIC. 2- Study the serial changes in haemostatic parameters in APL patients treated with ATRA and to compare their results with those treated with conventional chemotherapy without ATRA. Subjective and methods: In this prospective study (from October 2003 to October 2005), 44 newly diagnosed, untreated APL patients were included. ATRA plus chemotherapy – treated patients were 24 while 17 patients were treated with chemotherapy other than ATRA. For each patient, a full clinical evaluation was done and hematological investigations were accomplished at time of diagnosis and repeated on day 3 and 7 of therapy. Diagnosis of DIC was based on finding a positive D- dimer test with hypofibrinogenaemia with or without pathologically prolonged (PT and/or APTT). Results: In 44 newly diagnosed, untreated APL patients studied, the age range between 6-81 years with a median of 27 years. Male to female ratio was 1.3:1. Before treatment all patients had anemia, thrombocytopenia, and elevated level of D – dimer. DIC was present in all patients at time of diagnosis. All parameters that showed abnormal level at time of diagnosis had returned to normality within one week in ATRA treated group, indicating that DIC has essentially resolved. By contrast, those parameters remained abnormal even on day 7 in the chemotherapy treated group. Indicating that DIC was on going. Conclusion: ATRA therapy in APL patients is associated with rapid improvement of coagulopathy therefore , it is justified to be used from day one of the treatment

    mmWave Four-Element MIMO Antenna for Future 5G Systems

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    This paper presents an S-shape four-port Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) wideband mmWave antenna with bandwidth of 25 GHz to 39 GHz. The antenna is designed on 0.254 mm ultra-thin RO5880 with permittivity of 2.3. The dimensions of proposed S-shape antenna are 10 12 mm for single element and 24 24 mm for four-port MIMO configuration. A decoupling network is introduced to further compress mutual coupling among MIMO elements. The peak gain achieved is 7.1 dBi and MIMO assembly delivers diversity scheme. The proposed MIMO antenna is fabricated, and simulated results are found to be in excellent agreement with simulations. Through the results obtained, the proposed MIMO antenna system can be considered as a potential candidate for future mmWave devices.This project has received funding from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Grant 801538

    Simulation of Channel Segregation During Directional Solidification of In—75 wt pct Ga. Qualitative Comparison with In Situ Observations

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    International audienceFreckles are common defects in industrial casting. They result from thermosolutal convection due to buoyancy forces generated from density variations in the liquid. The present paper proposes a numerical analysis for the formation of channel segregation using the three-dimensional (3D) cellular automaton (CA)—finite element (FE) model. The model integrates kinetics laws for the nucleation and growth of a microstructure with the solution of the conservation equations for the casting, while introducing an intermediate modeling scale for a direct representation of the envelope of the dendritic grains. Directional solidification of a cuboid cell is studied. Its geometry, the alloy chosen as well as the process parameters are inspired from experimental observations recently reported in the literature. Snapshots of the convective pattern, the solute distribution, and the morphology of the growth front are qualitatively compared. Similitudes are found when considering the coupled 3D CAFE simulations. Limitations of the model to reach direct simulation of the experiments are discussed

    A Fully Automated and Explainable Algorithm for the Prediction of Malignant Transformation in Oral Epithelial Dysplasia

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    Oral epithelial dysplasia (OED) is a premalignant histopathological diagnosis given to lesions of the oral cavity. Its grading suffers from significant inter-/intra- observer variability, and does not reliably predict malignancy progression, potentially leading to suboptimal treatment decisions. To address this, we developed a novel artificial intelligence algorithm that can assign an Oral Malignant Transformation (OMT) risk score, based on histological patterns in the in Haematoxylin and Eosin stained whole slide images, to quantify the risk of OED progression. The algorithm is based on the detection and segmentation of nuclei within (and around) the epithelium using an in-house segmentation model. We then employed a shallow neural network fed with interpretable morphological/spatial features, emulating histological markers. We conducted internal cross-validation on our development cohort (Sheffield; n = 193 cases) followed by independent validation on two external cohorts (Birmingham and Belfast; n = 92 cases). The proposed OMTscore yields an AUROC = 0.74 in predicting whether an OED progresses to malignancy or not. Survival analyses showed the prognostic value of our OMTscore for predicting malignancy transformation, when compared to the manually-assigned WHO and binary grades. Analysis of the correctly predicted cases elucidated the presence of peri-epithelial and epithelium-infiltrating lymphocytes in the most predictive patches of cases that transformed (p < 0.0001). This is the first study to propose a completely automated algorithm for predicting OED transformation based on interpretable nuclear features, whilst being validated on external datasets. The algorithm shows better-than-human-level performance for prediction of OED malignant transformation and offers a promising solution to the challenges of grading OED in routine clinical practice
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