On dictatorships

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2007."June 2007."Includes bibliographical references (p. 101-107).This dissertation consists of three essays on dictatorships. The first two study the economic impact of power struggles in dictatorships. They focus on one mechanism used by dictators to remain in power, shuffling, where delegates have a short and uncertain tenure in any assignment. In these models, there is a ruler, a delegate and a population. The ruler and the delegate have a 'type', characterizing their ability as a ruler. The population can mount an insurrection, replacing the ruler with the delegate. The type of the ruler is known, while the type of the delegate is unknown to the other players. In Chapter 1, I assume that the delegate does not know his type, but can reveal it through an investment decision. I then show that shuffling is useful politically, even though it produces an economic cost, in that it reduces the delegate's incentive to invest, which prevents information about his type from being revealed. I also show that the ability to shuffle has some economic benefits, in that it assures the ruler that he can eliminate growing political threats, which induces him to encourage some investment.(cont.) In Chapter 2, I assume that the delegate knows his type and can call for an insurrection. I show that shuffling can ensure the ruler's survival when it is a punishment on the delegate. With sufficiently low payoffs, even a bad type wants to replace the ruler, so that no call for insurrection can be trusted. The same logic explains why a ruler would invest in a white elephant project to remain in power. In Chapter 3, I propose a general model of divide and rule. I show that a ruler maximizes rents by playing off divisions in the population. Typically, a ruler relies on an extreme support base, who is most afraid of the alternative regime, and invests in any technology which exacerbates popular divisions. I argue that the model offers an explanation for the negative correlation between corruption and freedom of the media, which has been widely documented. This explanation is consistent with widespread awareness of corruption in the population.by Alexandre Debs.Ph.D

Economic theories of dictatorship

This article reviews recent advances in economic theories of dictatorships and their lessons for the political stability and economic performance of dictatorships. It reflects on the general usefulness of economic theories of dictatorship, with an application to foreign relations.Political economy, dictatorship, game theory

Testing for a Structural Break in the Volatility of Real GDP Growth in Canada

This study tests for a structural break in the volatility of real GDP growth in Canada following the methodology of McConnell and Quiros (1998). A break is found in the first quarter of 1991. Based on disaggregated data, the tests indicate a break in the volatility of the rate of change of investment in residential structures and a break in the volatility of the rate of growth of personal expenditures on goods. Three possible explanations are given for the break in the data: a more service-oriented economy, improved inventory management, and a change in monetary policy.Business fluctuations and cycles; Econometric and statistical methods

Living by the Sword and Dying by the Sword? Leadership Transitions in and out of Dictatorships

What makes certain dictatorships more likely than others to democratize? I argue that military dictators , as specialists in violence, often remain threats to their successors. However, when democratic systems replace military dictatorships, that expertise presents less danger to new incumbents. Because democracies select leaders through elections, they reduce the importance of military expertise—and the role of associated violence—in contests for office. Thus, military dictatorships should prove more likely to transition quickly to democracy; military dictators will expect a lower likelihood of punishment—including death—at the hands of their successors than if they are replaced by other dictators. Therefore, incumbent military dictators see democratic systems as less dangerous to them; they face specific incentives to ensure a quick and effective transition to democracy. I provide support for my theory with evidence from the post-World War II period

The Source of Walras's Idealist Bias: A Review of Koppl's Solution to the Walras Paradox

In the last decade, with the publication of his Complete Works, there has been renewed interest in Walras’s methodology, mostly in the French economic literature. In particular, some scholars have argued that Walras characteristically confused positive and normative statements, a mistake all the more surprising given his impressive knowledge of philosophy (the so-called ‘Walras paradox’). This paper reviews these recent studies and, in particular, it contests the solution to the Walras paradox offered by R. Koppl. For Koppl, the paradox is explained by the fact that Walras was influenced by philosophers who did not distinguish between positive and normative statements. More precisely, the French philosopher E. Vacherot inspired him to an idealist theory of knowledge, where preconceived notions of justice could be defended as truths. This paper contests such a conclusion: Vacherot’s theory of science was not idealist and did not sanction a confusion of positive and normative statements. The Walras paradox could even be non-existent after all.