Bayesian Modeling of Dynamic Behavioral Change During an Epidemic

For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling efforts, making these models less useful than they could be. We address this by introducing a novel class of data-driven epidemic models which characterize and accurately estimate behavioral change. Our proposed model allows time-varying transmission to be captured by the level of "alarm" in the population, with alarm specified as a function of the past epidemic trajectory. We investigate the estimability of the population alarm across a wide range of scenarios, applying both parametric functions and non-parametric functions using splines and Gaussian processes. The model is set in the data-augmented Bayesian framework to allow estimation on partially observed epidemic data. The benefit and utility of the proposed approach is illustrated through applications to data from real epidemics.Comment: 20 pages, 10 figure

Archaeology, heritage and identity : the creation and development of a national museum in Wales

This thesis examines selected issues, events, episodes and timeframes in the early life of the National Museum of Wales in order to analyse influential and defining aspects in its complex past. It provides a critical perspective on the cultural processes surrounding the foundation and development of the Museum, as well as the array of identities, archaeologies and representations produced. A further aim is to identify and deconstruct the trajectories of research and thought within the Museum's Archaeological department during the early 20th century. The thesis seeks to demonstrate the complexities of the museum experience and to highlight the nuances and subtleties within the national context. It provides a contextual view of the initial movement to establish a national museum and antiquities collection, and subsequently focuses mainly on critical aspects in the development, research and interpretive practices of the Archaeological department. While some awareness exists across the archaeological and museum spectrum that figures such as Sir R.E. Mortimer Wheeler and Sir Cyril Fox spent part of their archaeological careers at the National Museum of Wales, there has to date been no focused, critical analysis of their active roles in shaping, and contributing to, archaeological practice within the Museum itself and within the wider contexts of Welsh and British archaeology. Closer examination of the curatorial and personnel structures in the Museum raises important questions regarding research agendas, the ways in which the material culture collections were augmented, interpreted and displayed, and conflicting political ideologies. Additionally, it draws attention to the dynamics of curatorial practice and representation in a national institutional context. Studying the period of time between the initial move to establish a national museum in the 1890s and the development of a national archaeological collection in the 1920s/30s, reveals the shifts and transformations in cultural politics, institutional practices and museological philosophies.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Protein expression from unintegrated HIV-1 DNA introduces bias in primary in vitro post-integration latency models

To understand the persistence of latently HIV-1 infected cells in virally suppressed infected patients, a number of in vitro models of HIV latency have been developed. In an attempt to mimic the in vivo situation as closely as possible, several models use primary cells and replication-competent viruses in combination with antiretroviral compounds to prevent ongoing replication. Latency is subsequently measured by HIV RNA and/or protein production after cellular activation. To discriminate between pre- and post-integration latency, integrase inhibitors are routinely used, preventing novel integrations upon cellular activation. Here, we show that this choice of antiretrovirals may still cause a bias of pre-integration latency in these models, as unintegrated HIV DNA can form and directly contribute to the levels of HIV RNA and protein production. We further show that the addition of reverse transcriptase inhibitors effectively suppresses the levels of episomal HIV DNA (as measured by 2-LTR circles) and decreases the levels of HIV transcription. Consequently, we show that latency levels described in models that only use integrase inhibitors may be overestimated. The inclusion of additional control conditions, such as 2-LTR quantification and the addition of reverse transcriptase inhibitors, is crucial to fully elucidate the actual levels of post-integration latency

Archaeology, heritage and identity: the creation and development of a national museum in Wales

This thesis examines selected issues, events, episodes and timeframes in the early life of the National Museum of Wales in order to analyse influential and defining aspects in its complex past. It provides a critical perspective on the cultural processes surrounding the foundation and development of the Museum, as well as the array of identities, archaeologies and representations produced. A further aim is to identify and deconstruct the trajectories of research and thought within the Museum's Archaeological department during the early 20th century. The thesis seeks to demonstrate the complexities of the museum experience and to highlight the nuances and subtleties within the national context. It provides a contextual view of the initial movement to establish a national museum and antiquities collection, and subsequently focuses mainly on critical aspects in the development, research and interpretive practices of the Archaeological department. While some awareness exists across the archaeological and museum spectrum that figures such as Sir R.E. Mortimer Wheeler and Sir Cyril Fox spent part of their archaeological careers at the National Museum of Wales, there has to date been no focused, critical analysis of their active roles in shaping, and contributing to, archaeological practice within the Museum itself and within the wider contexts of Welsh and British archaeology. Closer examination of the curatorial and personnel structures in the Museum raises important questions regarding research agendas, the ways in which the material culture collections were augmented, interpreted and displayed, and conflicting political ideologies. Additionally, it draws attention to the dynamics of curatorial practice and representation in a national institutional context. Studying the period of time between the initial move to establish a national museum in the 1890s and the development of a national archaeological collection in the 1920s/30s, reveals the shifts and transformations in cultural politics, institutional practices and museological philosophies

Health and economic impact of combining metformin with nateglinide to achieve glycemic control: Comparison of the lifetime costs of complications in the U.K

BACKGROUND: To reduce the likelihood of complications in persons with type 2 diabetes, it is critical to control hyperglycaemia. Monotherapy with metformin or insulin secretagogues may fail to sustain control after an initial reduction in glycemic levels. Thus, combining metformin with other agents is frequently necessary. These analyses model the potential long-term economic and health impact of using combination therapy to improve glycemic control. METHODS: An existing model that simulates the long-term course of type 2 diabetes in relation to glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) and post-prandial glucose (PPG) was used to compare the combination of nateglinide with metformin to monotherapy with metformin. Complication rates were estimated for major diabetes-related complications (macrovascular and microvascular) based on existing epidemiologic studies and clinical trial data. Utilities and costs were estimated using data collected in the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS). Survival, life years gained (LYG), quality-adjusted life years (QALY), complication rates and associated costs were estimated. Costs were discounted at 6% and benefits at 1.5% per year. RESULTS: Combination therapy was predicted to reduce complication rates and associated costs compared with metformin. Survival increased by 0.39 (0.32 discounted) and QALY by 0.46 years (0.37 discounted) implying costs of £6,772 per discounted LYG and £5,609 per discounted QALY. Sensitivity analyses showed the results to be consistent over broad ranges. CONCLUSION: Although drug treatment costs are increased by combination therapy, this cost is expected to be partially offset by a reduction in the costs of treating long-term diabetes complications

Visualizing War

Curators Andrew Egbert, Natalie Sherif, and Alexandra Ward have designed an experience that allows us to consider why these images resonated with such power for Civil War Americans. In doing so, they have shifted the gallery experience away from a truth-seeking mission, giving us instead a platform from which to move beyond questions of whether visual culture was realistic or not. They offer us a chance to explore the emotional and intellectual connections that sustained Americans long after the shouts and cheers in rushing to arms had faded. [excerpt]https://cupola.gettysburg.edu/artcatalogs/1008/thumbnail.jp

Mathematical modelling reveals differential effects of erythropoietin on proliferation and lineage commitment of human hematopoietic progenitors in early erythroid culture

Erythropoietin is essential for the production of mature erythroid cells, promoting both proliferation and survival. Whether erythropoietin and other cytokines can influence lineage commitment of hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells is of significant interest. To study lineage restriction of the common myeloid progenitor to the megakaryocyte/erythroid progenitor of peripheral blood CD34(+) cells, we have shown that the cell surface protein CD36 identifies the earliest lineage restricted megakaryocyte/erythroid progenitor. Using this marker and carboxyfluorescein succinimidyl ester to track cell divisions in vitro, we have developed a mathematical model that accurately predicts population dynamics of erythroid culture. Parameters derived from the modeling of cultures without added erythropoietin indicate that the rate of lineage restriction is not affected by erythropoietin. By contrast, megakaryocyte/erythroid progenitor proliferation is sensitive to erythropoietin from the time that CD36 first appears at the cell surface. These results shed new light on the role of erythropoietin in erythropoiesis and provide a powerful tool for further study of hematopoietic progenitor lineage restriction and erythropoiesis

Full thickness epidermal burn from a heating pad on a cesarean incision with silver dressing: a case report

We present a case of a full thickness epidermal burn resulting from an all-natural clay-based heating pad over a cesarean incision silver dressing to bring awareness to the risks associated with nonpharmacologic management of post cesarean pain. There is limited guidance on nonpharmacological management of post cesarean pain. It is important that providers are able to advise their patients about their options, including to be wary of using heating pads on post-cesarean dressings, especially with pain in the early post-partum period