Valuing meteorological services in resource-constrained settings: Application to smallholder farmers in the Peruvian Altiplano

Changing climate and weather patterns have resulted in reduced agricultural productivity in some parts of the world and put pressure on global food security. Availability and improved quality of meteorological information is seen as a potentially propitious means of adaptation to changing climate conditions. Forecasts of extreme weather events are especially valuable in resource-poor settings where climate-related vulnerability is high, such as for smallholder farmers in low- income countries. In this paper we provide estimates of frost warnings valuation in the context of small-scale quinoa production in the Peruvian Altiplano using a cross-disciplinary approach. We first present a detailed contextual assessment of quinoa production in the study region based on agrometeorological and socio-economic data that was obtained through a representative farm household survey conducted in December 2016. Building on this assessment, we propose a sto-chastic life-cycle model, replicating the lifetime cycle of a quinoa-producing household, in order to derive a theoretical valuation of frost warnings. Calibrating the model to our data we provide estimates of frost-warning valuation which are in the range of $30–50 per household per year, depending on the forecast accuracy and agents’ risk aversion. In a last step, using the observa-tional data from the farm household survey, we show that access to existing meteorological services is empirically associated with avoided losses in agricultural production that amount to$18 per average household and per year. Our findings point to high climate vulnerabilities of smallholders in the Peruvian Altiplano and potentially large welfare gains from incorporating improved meteorological services into their decision-making process. At the same time, we highlight that attention must also be paid to complementary non-meteorological interventions that bear the potential to leverage these welfare gain

For Whom Is the Path the Goal? A Lifespan Perspective on the Development of Goal Focus

Goals are an intensely studied concept in various research areas within psychology. They can be defined as cognitive representations of means-ends relations. The relative focus on the means or the ends (i.e., goal focus) can vary between persons and over time. Taking a lifespan perspective, we use the existing developmental, social-cognitive, and motivational literature to portray how goal focus might develop across the entire lifespan. For this purpose, we take findings on the perception of goal-directed behavior in infancy, the development of (self-)representations and goal pursuit in adolescence, and of goals across adulthood into account. We propose that goal focus changes across the lifespan due to age-related cognitive and motivational development, and that the relative impact of cognitive and motivational processes on goal focus varies across the lifespan. We conclude by integrating different approaches and findings from a lifespan perspective

Which updates during an equity crowdfunding campaign increase crowd participation?

Start-ups often post updates during equity crowdfunding campaigns. However, little is known about the effects of such updates on crowd participation. We investigate this question by using hand-collected data from 71 funding campaigns and 39,399 investment decisions on two German equity crowdfunding portals. Using a combination of different empirical research techniques, we find that posting an update has a significant positive effect on the number of investments made by the crowd and the investment amount collected by the start-up. This effect does not occur immediately in its entirety; rather, it lags the update by a few days. Furthermore, the effect of updates loses statistical significance with the number of updates posted during a campaign. We also find that an easier language used in updates increases crowd participation, whereas the length of updates has no effects. With respect to the update’s content, we find that the positive effect can be attributed to updates about new developments of the start-up such as campaign developments, new funding, business developments, and cooperation projects. Updates on the start-up team, business model, product developments, and promotional campaigns do not have meaningful effects. Our paper contributes to the literature on the effects of information disclosure on equity crowdfunding participation. Furthermore, our results have practical implications for start-ups and their investor communication during equity crowdfunding campaigns

Chasing the “How” and “Why” of goal pursuit: A multimethod approach to the study of goal focus

Goals are cognitive representations of means-ends relations that reflect what a person wants to approach or avoid. Previous research has demonstrated that the relative salience of the means and ends (i.e., goal focus) differs across adulthood. Due to inconsistent findings in recent studies, this study systematically investigated the convergence of goal focus across different dimensions (i.e., goal content, complexity, type, i.e., hypothetical vs. personal goals, and method of assessment) and its relation to age. To this end, we conducted a multimethod online study (N = 773) across an age range from 14 to 87 years. The results provide little support for the convergence of goal focus across different assessment methods and systematic associations with age. We discuss the implications of these findings for goal research

Impact of Janus Kinase Inhibition with Tofacitinib on Fundamental Processes of Bone Healing

Both inflammatory diseases like rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and anti-inflammatory treatment of RA with glucocorticoids (GCs) or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) negatively influence bone metabolism and fracture healing. Janus kinase (JAK) inhibition with tofacitinib has been demonstrated to act as a potent anti-inflammatory therapeutic agent in the treatment of RA, but its impact on the fundamental processes of bone regeneration is currently controversially discussed and at least in part elusive. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to examine the effects of tofacitinib on processes of bone healing focusing on recruitment of human mesenchymal stromal cells (hMSCs) into the inflammatory microenvironment of the fracture gap, chondrogenesis, osteogenesis and osteoclastogenesis. We performed our analyses under conditions of reduced oxygen availability in order to mimic the in vivo situation of the fracture gap most optimal. We demonstrate that tofacitinib dose-dependently promotes the recruitment of hMSCs under hypoxia but inhibits recruitment of hMSCs under normoxia. With regard to the chondrogenic differentiation of hMSCs, we demonstrate that tofacitinib does not inhibit survival at therapeutically relevant doses of 10-100 nM. Moreover, tofacitinib dose-dependently enhances osteogenic differentiation of hMSCs and reduces osteoclast differentiation and activity. We conclude from our data that tofacitinib may influence bone healing by promotion of hMSC recruitment into the hypoxic microenvironment of the fracture gap but does not interfere with the cartilaginous phase of the soft callus phase of fracture healing process. We assume that tofacitinib may promote bone formation and reduce bone resorption, which could in part explain the positive impact of tofacitinib on bone erosions in RA. Thus, we hypothesize that it will be unnecessary to stop this medication in case of fracture and suggest that positive effects on osteoporosis are likely