On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare

This paper employs a multi-country large scale Overlapping Generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk to quantify the impact of the demographic transition towards an older population in industrialized countries on world-wide rates of return, international capital flows and the distribution of wealth and welfare in the OECD. We find that for the U.S. as an open economy, rates of return are predicted to decline by 86 basis points between 2005 and 2080 and wages increase by about 4.1%. If the U.S. were a closed economy, rates of return would decline and wages increase by less. This is due to the fact that other regions in the OECD will age even more rapidly; therefore the U.S. is "importing" the more severe demographic transition from the rest of the OECD in the form of larger factor price changes. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young agents with little assets and currently low labor productivity gain, up to 1% in consumption, from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to lose, because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital.

On the Consequences of Demographic Change for International Capital Flows, Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare

In all major industrialized countries the population is aging over time, reducing the fraction of the population in working age. Consequently labor is expected to be scarce, relative to capital, with an ensuing decline in real returns on capital and increases in real wages. This paper employs a large scale OLG model with intra-cohort heterogeneity to ask what are the distributional consequences of these changes in factor prices induced by changes in the demographic structure. Since these demographic changes occur at different speed in industrialized economies we develop a multi-region (the US, the European Union, the rest of the OECD and the rest of the world) openeconomy model that allows for international capital flows. This allows us to evaluate to what extent the distributional consequences of changing factor prices for the US and Europe are mitigated or accentuated by the fact that the population is aging at different rates elsewhere in the worldaging, capital flows, pension reform, welfare, distribution

On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare

This paper employs a multi-country large scale Overlapping Generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk to quantify the impact of the demographic transition towards an older population in industrialized countries on world-wide rates of return, international capital flows and the distribution of wealth and welfare in the OECD. We find that for the U.S. as an open economy, rates of return are predicted to decline by 86 basis points between 2005 and 2080 and wages increase by about 4.1%. If the U.S. were a closed economy, rates of return would decline and wages increase by less. This is due to the fact that other regions in the OECD will age even more rapidly; therefore the U.S. is “importing” the more severe demographic transition from the rest of the OECD in the form of larger factor price changes. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young agents with little assets and currently low labor productivity gain, up to 1% in consumption, from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to lose, because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital.Population Aging, International Capital Flows, Distribution of Welfare

Demographic Change, Relative Factor Prices, International Capital Flows, and Their Differential Effects on the Welfare of Generations

Demographic change has differential impacts on the welfare of current and future generations. In a simple closed economy, aging -- a relative scarcity of young workers -- increases wages, increasing the welfare of the young. At the same time, population aging will reduce rates of return to capital, thereby reducing the welfare of asset holders who are usually older than the population average. In a global world with pension systems, however, these effects are less straightforward, since international capital flows dampen the factor price changes. Moreover, pay-as-you-go pension systems financed by payroll taxes create a wedge between net and gross wages, and their intergenerational redistribution has important additional effects on the welfare of generations. To quantify these effects, we develop a large-scale multi-country overlapping generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk. Due to the predicted relative abundance of the factor capital, the rate of return falls between 2005 and 2050 by roughly 90 basis points. Our simulations indicate that capital flows from rapidly ageing regions to the rest of the world will initially be substantial, but that trends are reversed when households de-cumulate savings. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young individuals with little assets and currently low labor productivity indeed gain from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to loose because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital.

On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare

In the industrialized world the population is aging over time, reducing the fraction of the population in working age. Consequently labor is expected to be scarce, relative to capital, with an ensuing decline in the real return on capital. This paper uses demographic projections together with a large scale multi-country Overlapping Generations Model with uninsurable idiosyncratic uncertainty to quantify the distributional and welfare consequences of these changes in factor prices induced by the demographic transition. In our model capital can freely flow between different regions in the OECD (the U.S., the EU and the rest of the OECD). Thus international capital flows may in principle mitigate the decline in rates of returns one would expect in the U.S. if it were a closed economy. We find exactly the opposite. In the U.S. as an open economy, rates of return are predicted to decline by 86 basis points between 2005 and 2080. If the U.S. were a closed economy, this decline would amount to only 78 basis points. This result is due to the fact that other regions in the OECD will age even more rapidly; therefore the U.S. is "importing" the more severe aging problem from these regions, especially Europe. A similar conclusion is reached if we let capital flow freely between the OECD and the rest of the world (ROW). While ROW currently has a younger population structure, it is predicted to age even more severely in the next decades, giving rise to an even more pronounced decline in world rates of return to capital. In order to evaluate the welfare consequences of the demographic transition we ask the following hypothetical question: suppose a household economically born in 2005 would live through the economic transition with changing factor prices induced by the demographic change (but keeping her own survival probabilities constant at their 2005 values), how would its welfare have changed, relative to a situation without a demographic transition? We find that households experience significant welfare losses due to the demographic transition, in the order of 2-5 % of consumption, depending on their initial productivity level and the design of the pension system. These losses are mainly due to the fact that lower future returns to capital make it harder for households to save for retirement. On the other hand, if the OECD suddenly opens up to ROW in 2005 and ROW has higher returns to capital before the world capital market integration, then these losses are reduced to 1,5 - 2,5 %

Optimal taxes on capital in the OLG model with uninsurable idiosyncratic income risk

We characterize the optimal linear tax on capital in an Overlapping Generations model with two period lived households facing uninsurable idiosyncratic labor income risk. The Ramsey government internalizes the general equilibrium feedback of private precautionary saving. For logarithmic utility our full analytical solution of the Ramsey problem shows that the optimal aggregate saving rate is independent of income risk. The optimal time-invariant tax on capital is increasing in income risk. Its sign depends on the extent of risk and on the Pareto weight of future generations. If the Ramsey tax rate that maximizes steady state utility is positive, then implementing this tax rate permanently generates a Pareto-improving transition even if the initial equilibrium is dynamically efficient. We generalize our results to Epstein-Zin-Weil utility and show that the optimal steady state saving rate is increasing in income risk if and only if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is smaller than 1

Demographic change, relative factor prices, international capital flows, and their differential effects on the welfare of generations

Demographic change has differential impacts on the welfare of current and future generations. In a simple closed economy, aging -- a relative scarcity of young workers -- increases wages, increasing the welfare of the young. At the same time, population aging will reduce rates of return to capital, thereby reducing the welfare of asset holders who are usually older than the population average. In a global world with pension systems, however, these effects are less straightforward, since international capital flows dampen the factor price changes. Moreover, pay-as-you-go pension systems financed by payroll taxes create a wedge between net and gross wages, and their intergenerational redistribution has important additional effects on the welfare of generations. To quantify these effects, we develop a large-scale multi-country overlapping generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk. Due to the predicted relative abundance of the factor capital, the rate of return falls between 2005 and 2050 by roughly 90 basis points. Our simulations indicate that capital flows from rapidly ageing regions to the rest of the world will initially be substantial, but that trends are reversed when households de-cumulate savings. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young individuals with little assets and currently low labor productivity indeed gain from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to loose because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital

Implementing Actavis: Three Tips for Future Courts Assessing Reverse Patent Settlements Under Rule of Reason Analysis

Reverse payment patent litigation settlements, wherein the payments flow from plaintiff brand name drug companies to defendant generic competitors, often including agreements that the generic companies will delay market entry, have evaded consistent legal treatment and divided courts for over a decade. In December 2012, the United States Supreme Court granted the Federal Trade Commission’s petition for writ of certiorari to review FTC v. Watson Pharmaceuticals. In Watson, the Eleventh Circuit found that, absent sham litigation or fraud, reverse payment settlements are legal under antitrust law as long as the settlement agreement falls within the exclusionary scope of the patent. The Watson decision was followed mere months later by the Third Circuit’s In re K-DUR decision, concluding that reverse-payment settlements should be deemed presumptively unlawful under a quick-look rule of reason approach. Because “different courts have reached different conclusions” regarding the legality of reverse-payment settlements, the Supreme Court endeavored to resolve the circuit split in FTC v. Actavis, Inc. On June 17, 2013, with Justice Breyer writing the majority opinion in a 5-3 decision, the Supreme Court reversed the Eleventh Circuit, holding that governments and private plaintiffs have a cause of action under the antitrust laws against brand name and generic pharmaceutical companies engaging in reverse payment settlements. The Court directed lower courts reviewing such claims to apply a full rule of reason analysis to drug companies’ potentially anticompetitive conduct. In the spring of 2013, in anticipation of the Court’s decision, the Minnesota Journal of Law, Science & Technology invited scholars and practitioners who have analyzed and developed the jurisprudence of reverse payment settlements to respond to FTC v. Actavis, Inc. This article is a response piece that will digest the opinion, critique both Justice Breyer’s majority opinion and Chief Justice Roberts’ dissent, and provide direction for courts and practitioners in navigating the new legal landscape of reverse-payment settlements in the wake of FTC v. Actavis, Inc

Strongly inhomogeneous distribution of spectral properties of silicon-vacancy color centers in nanodiamonds

The silicon-vacancy (SiV) color center in diamond is a solid-state single photon emitter and spin quantum bit suited as a component in quantum devices. Here, we show that the SiV center in nanodiamond exhibits a strongly inhomogeneous distribution with regard to the center wavelengths and linewidths of the zero-phonon-line (ZPL) emission at room temperature. We find that the SiV centers separate in two clusters: one group exhibits ZPLs with center wavelengths within a narrow range of approximatly 730 nm to 742 nm and broad linewidths between 5 nm and 17 nm, whereas the second group comprises a very broad distribution of center wavelengths between 715 nm and 835 nm, but narrow linewidths from below 1 nm up to 4 nm. Supported by ab initio Kohn-Sham density functional theory calculations we show that the ZPL shifts of the first group are consistently explained by strain in the diamond lattice. Further, we suggest, that the second group showing the strongly inhomogeneous distribution of center wavelengths might be comprised of modified SiV centers. Whereas single photon emission is demonstrated for SiV centers of both clusters, we show that emitters from different clusters show different spectroscopic features such as variations of the phonon sideband spectra and different blinking dynamics

Murphy Diagrams: Forecast Evaluation of Expected Shortfall

Motivated by the Basel 3 regulations, recent studies have considered joint forecasts of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. A large family of scoring functions can be used to evaluate forecast performance in this context. However, little intuitive or empirical guidance is currently available, which renders the choice of scoring function awkward in practice. We therefore develop graphical checks (Murphy diagrams) of whether one forecast method dominates another under a relevant class of scoring functions, and propose an associated hypothesis test. We illustrate these tools with simulation examples and an empirical analysis of S&P 500 and DAX returns