Ruptures in the probability scale? Calculation of ruptures’ dimensions

The article raises the question of possible existence of ruptures, gaps in the probability scale which are caused by noises, uncertainties. A hypothesis of existence of such ruptures may be used to solve a number of problems of, e.g., utility theory in economics. The calculations give the dimensions of ruptures can be more than 1/3 of the standard deviation for the standard probability distributions.probability, uncertainty, utility, economics, decisions, risk,

A Rational Irrational Man?

A man is a key subject of economics. “A man is irrational” - this opinion can be made from Allais paradox, risk aversion and other well-known fundamental problems. For a long time, this opinion was a barrier to proper solution of these problems and the development of the economics. A radically new way is proposed to solve them and remove this barrier. The way is the generalization of a breach of a term of contract.risk, business, bank, trade, industry, development, utility, contract, “ideal” economics, investment

General correcting formula of forecasting?

A general correcting formula of forecasting (as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts) is proposed. The formula provides new forecasting resources and areas of application including economic forecasting.forecasting; prediction; forecasting correction; planning;

A new approach to solve old problems

Arrangements (agreements, contracts, regulations, bargains, etc.) are widespread economic events and are the fundamental concept of the economic theory. Infringements (breaches, modifications, deviations, changes, etc.) of arrangements are common and have a significant importance for the economic theory. For many years now the arrangement infringements have lacked appropriate attention in the economic theory. This fact caused a number of theoretical and practical problems. In order to solve them a new approach is proposed, which considers the possibility of arrangement infringements. This article gives a simple example and a new result of the approach application.risk investment insurance

Principle of uncertain future and utility

The principle of uncertain future: the probability of a future event contains a degree of (hidden) uncertainty. As a result, this uncertainty (in a sense, similar to vibrations, fluctuations) pushes the probability value back from the bounds to the middle of its range (from ~100% and ~0% to the middle probability values). In other words, the real values of high probabilities are lower than the preliminarily determined ones. Conversely, the real values of low probabilities are higher than the preliminarily determined ones. This result provides the uniform solution of a number of fundamental problems: the underweighting of high and the overweighting of low probabilities, the Allais paradox, risk aversion, loss aversion, the Ellsberg paradox, the equity premium puzzle, etc. The principle and its consequences can be applied in the fields of banking, investment, insurance, trade, industry, planning and forecasting. Explanations of the principle and examples of solution of three types of basic utility problems are provided.risk; market; banking; industry; development; investments; insurance; hidden causes

Arrangement Infringement Possibility Approach: Some Economic Features of Large-Scale Events

The definition of arrangement infringement has been given. Several characteristics of hurricanes as large-scale events and objectives for the first stages of insurance data analysis have been sketched out. Scale hypotheses, insurance and investment problems have been formulated.risk, insurance, investment, choice, hurricanes

Gains and losses. The same or different choices?

Arrangements (agreements, contracts, projects, etc.) are widespread economic events and are the fundamental concept of the economic theory. Infringements (breaches, modifications, changes, etc.) of arrangements are common and have a significant importance for the economic theory. For many years now the arrangement infringements have lacked appropriate attention in the economic theory. This fact caused a number of theoretical and practical problems. In order to solve them a new approach is proposed, which considers the possibility of arrangement infringements. The approach application in relation to choosing between risky and guaranteed outcomes is discussed. The article demonstrates the approach able to give the same results for both gains and losses. The concept of the space of “Anything can happen” is introduced. The article gives examples of practical application of the approach in relation to bank deposits, investments, business projects and international activities such as Millennium Dome-like projects and Olympiad-like projects.risk, choice, investments, banking, industry, market, development

Theorem of existence of ruptures for mean values on finite numerical segments. Discrete case

The proof of the theorem of existence of the ruptures, namely the proof of maximality, is improved. The theorem may be used in economics and explain the well-known problems such as Allais’ paradox. Illustrated examples of ruptures are presented.utility; utility theory; probability; uncertainty; decisions; economics; Allais paradox; risk aversion;

Arrangement infringement possibility approach: some economic features of large-scale events

The definition of an arrangement infringement has been given. Several characteristics of hurricanes as large-scale events and the objectives for the first stages of an insurance data analysis have been sketched out. Scale hypotheses, insurance and investment problems have been formulated. The generalized items of the first stage of the research are: a simple example of an application of the arrangement infringement possibility approach the first basic hypothesis and the general introduction to the approach fine effects the second basic hypothesis and some mathematic models involved formal methods and applications.

Principle of Uncertain Future

The principle of uncertain future: the probability of a future event contains a degree of (hidden) uncertainty. As a result, this uncertainty (in a sense, similar to vibrations, fluctuations) pushes the probability value back from the bounds to the middle of its range (from the very high and very low probability values to the middle ones). In other words, the real values of high probabilities are lower than the preliminarily determined ones. Conversely, the real values of low probabilities are higher than the preliminarily determined ones. This result provides the uniform solution of a number of fundamental problems: the underweighting of high and the overweighting of low probabilities, the Allais paradox, risk aversion, loss aversion, the Ellsberg paradox, the equity premium puzzle, etc. The principle and its consequences can be applied in the fields of banking, investment, insurance, trade, industry, planning and forecasting. Explanations of the principle and examples of solution of three types of fundamental problems are provided.uncertainty; risk; market; banking; industry; development; investments; insurance; utility