USING ECONOMIC INCENTIVES TO CONTROL POLLUTION IN RUSSIA

This paper investigates Russia's system of environmental management, especially economic tools used to control pollution. It also describes the Russian experience with a system of pollution fees. In particular, we consider how the system of pollution fees works, how fee levels are set, the incentive properties of the fees, and the ultimate use to the Russian government of the revenue from the emission fees. Although the emission fees are quite substantial for some pollutants, the incentive properties of the fees are almost nonexistent. The primary purpose of pollution fees is to generate funds for state-owned enterprises to invest in pollution abatement equipment. This is substantially different from the operation of a pollution fee in the West.Environmental Economics and Policy,

Air Pollution Costs in Ukraine

The paper presents estimation of the health losses from urban air pollution in Ukraine. The methodology developed by US EPA and adjusted in Russia for Eastern European transition countries was applied for health risk assessment. PM2.5 was identified as the major source of human health risk, based on experience from the Russian studies. In the absence of reliable computed concentrations of PM2.5, the study was based on monitoring data of total suspended particle (TSP) emissions in Ukraine. Additional cases of mortality and morbidity were calculated based on reporting data on TSP concentration that was recalculated into PM2.5. Then the concentration–response function was applied to estimate individual risk. Next, individual risk was applied to the population exposed to the concentration reported for each city included in the analysis (we selected most polluted cities). For each city we considered individual data on baseline mortality and morbidity and population structure. In total, air pollution related mortality represents about 6 percent of total mortality in Ukraine. In Russia the corresponding indicator totals about 4 percent. The relative mortality risk attributed to air pollution calculated per 100 000 population in both countries is about 55-59 cases. Since applied method is sensitive to the primary data uncertainties we conducted sensitivity analysis applying Monte-Carlo method. Economic damage related to mortality risk was estimated at about 4 percent of GDP. There was no relevant WTP study in Ukraine therefore we applied the benefit-transfer method in order to estimate VSL, since mortality attributed to air pollution is major component of health losses (about 94 percent). In order to compare and aggregate mortality and morbidity risks we recalculated them in DALY. Then morbidity represents about 30 percent of total air pollution health load. Data on baseline morbidity is less reliable than data on baseline mortality; therefore the morbidity risk estimates are more uncertain than mortality estimates. It is likely that morbidity risk is underestimated. Regardless of uncertainties mentioned above and some problems with reported data we can conclude that the mortality risk attributed to air pollution is significant. Therefore, costs of air pollution in Ukraine are sizable and in the nearest future may offset the economic growth. Recovery of the Ukrainian economy based on restoration of polluting industries may lead to stagnation since mortality and morbidity risks not only puts burden on the economy, but also reduce labor force.Air Pollution, Ukraine, Environmental Damages

Empirical Analysis of National Income and So2 Emissions in Selected European Countries

Data on GDP per capita and sulfur emissions for twelve European countries were analyzed to determine the relationship between emissions and income in these countries. As a whole, the relationship between sulfur emissions and per capita income is a fourth order polynomial and not a quadratic one as found in most studies. When countries were examined individually, seven out of the twelve countries depicted the same relationship. Looking closely at the regulations restricting sulfur emissions in the UK, the impact of all regulations supported the inverted U-shaped Kuznets curve. Individually, however, it is found that only two regulations have statistically significant impacts: Smoke Abatement Act in 1926 (reduced the amount of sulfur associated with a given level of GDP); and Clean Air Act in 1956 (increased the amount of sulfur emissions associated with a given level of GDP).Environmental Kuznet’s Curve, Europe, Sulfur dioxide emission

The Influence of Climate Change Considerations on Energy Policy: The Case of Russia

To those working on climate change it is obvious that energy policy should be influenced by climate change considerations. The question that this paper seeks to answer is, to what extent do they influence policy and what contribution can a careful analysis of the costs and benefits of climate change options have on the formulation of that policy. We seek to understand this by looking in some detail at energy policy formulation in Russia. To do so it is necessary to look at the whole set of issues that determine energy policy. These include energy security, macroeconomic and uncertainty factors, local environmental issues and social issues. The analysis has been carried out for a specific case – that of the RF, where energy policy is currently under formulation to 2010. Two options have been looked at: a “High Coal” option, where there would be a substantial change in fuel mix away from gas to coal; and a “High Gas” option where the current fuel mix is retained and the increase in demand is met from all sources in proportion to current use. The analysis shows that, at international prices for fuels, the “High Coal” option is attractive. However, when we include the potential decline of price for natural gas in the European market, the relative preference for this option drops dramatically but it still remains the preferred option. When, account is also taken of the carbon benefits of the High Gas option, using plausible values for carbon, the attraction of the High Coal option is further reduced but not altered. When finally account is taken of the health associated with the lower use of coal in the High Gas option, the preference can be reversed but it requires a critical value for the health benefits. This critical value – at around $3,000 for a life year lost -- is plausible for the RF, if anything the actual value is probably higher. What the analysis shows is the need for a careful evaluation of the different factors determining energy policy. Among these is climate change. It is not the critical factor but it can be an important one. Perhaps more important are the environmental benefits that go with the lower carbon High Gas options.Climate policy, Russia, Ancillary benefits

Green-Function-Based Monte Carlo Method for Classical Fields Coupled to Fermions

Microscopic models of classical degrees of freedom coupled to non-interacting fermions occur in many different contexts. Prominent examples from solid state physics are descriptions of colossal magnetoresistance manganites and diluted magnetic semiconductors, or auxiliary field methods for correlated electron systems. Monte Carlo simulations are vital for an understanding of such systems, but notorious for requiring the solution of the fermion problem with each change in the classical field configuration. We present an efficient, truncation-free O(N) method on the basis of Chebyshev expanded local Green functions, which allows us to simulate systems of unprecedented size N.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Random walks with thermalizing collisions in bounded regions; physical applications valid from the ballistic to diffusive regimes

The behavior of a spin undergoing Larmor precession in the presence of fluctuating fields is of interest to workers in many fields. The fluctuating fields cause frequency shifts and relaxation which are related to their power spectrum, which can be determined by taking the Fourier transform of the auto-correlation functions of the field fluctuations. Recently we have shown how to calculate these correlation functions for all values of mean free path (ballistic to diffusive motion) in finite bounded regions, using the model of persistent continuous time random walks (CTRW) for particles subject to scattering by fixed (frozen) scattering centers so that the speed of the moving particles is not changed by the collisions. In this work we show how scattering with energy exchange from an ensemble of scatterers in thermal equilibrium can be incorporated into the CTRW. We present results for 1,2 and 3 dimensions. The results agree for all these cases contrary to the previously studied 'frozen' models. Our results for the velocity autocorrelation function show a long time tail $\left( \sim t^{-1/2}\right)$, which we also obtain from conventional diffusion theory, with the same power, independent of dimensionality. Our results are valid for any Markovian scattering kernel as well as any kernel based on a scattering cross section $\sim1/v.$Comment: 43 pages, 12 figure

Linking Reduced Deforestation and a Global Carbon Market: Impacts on Costs, Financial Flows, and Technological Innovation

Discussions of tropical deforestation are currently at the forefront of climate change policy negotiations at national, regional, and international levels. This paper analyzes the effects of linking Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) to a global market for greenhouse gas emission reductions. We supplement a global climate-energy-economy model with alternative cost estimates for reducing deforestation emissions in order to examine a global program for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 ppmv of CO2 equivalent. Introducing REDD reduces global forestry emissions through 2050 by 20-22% in the Brazil-only case and by 64-88% in the global REDD scenario. At the same time, REDD lowers the total costs of the climate policy by an estimated 10-25% depending on which tropical countries participate and whether the “banking†of excess credits for use in future periods is allowed. As a result, REDD could enable additional reductions of at least 20 ppmv of CO2-equivalent concentrations with no added costs compared to an energy-sector only policy. The cost savings from REDD are magnified if banking is allowed and there is a need to increase the stringency of global climate policy in the future in response, for example, to new scientific information. Results also indicate that REDD will decrease carbon prices in 2050 by 8-23% with banking and 11-26% without banking. While developing regions, particularly Latin America, gain the value of REDD opportunities, the decrease in the carbon price keeps the value of international carbon market flows relatively stable despite an increase in volumes transacted. We also estimate that REDD generally reduces the total portfolio of investments and research and development of new energy technologies by 1-10%. However, due to impacts on the relative prices of different fossil fuels, REDD has a slight positive estimated effect on investments in coal-related technologies (IGCC and CCS) as well as, in some cases, non-electric energy R&D. This research confirms that integrating REDD into global carbon markets can provide powerful incentives for the preservation of tropical forests while lowering the costs of global climate change protection and providing valuable policy flexibility.Climate change, deforestation, carbon sinks

Abatement Cost Uncertainty and Policy Instrument Selection under a Stringent Climate Policy. A Dynamic Analysis

This paper investigates the relative economic and environmental outcomes of price versus quantity mechanisms to control GHG emissions when abatement costs are uncertain. In particular, we evaluate the impacts on policy costs, CO2 emissions and energy R&D for a stringent mitigation target of 550 ppmv CO2 equivalent (i.e. 450 for CO2 only) concentrations. The analysis is performed in an optimal growth framework via Monte Carlo simulations of the integrated assessment model WITCH (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid). Results indicate that the price instrument stochastically dominates the quantity instrument when a stringent stabilization policy is in place.Abatement Costs, Climate Policy

Linking Reduced Deforestation and a Global Carbon Market: Impacts on Costs, Financial Flows, and Technological Innovation

Discussions over tropical deforestation are currently at the forefront of climate change policy negotiations at national, regional, and international levels. This paper analyzes the effects of linking Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) to a global market for greenhouse gas emission reductions. We supplement a global climate-energy-economy model with alternative cost estimates for reducing deforestation emissions in order to examine a global program for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 ppmv of CO2 equivalent. Introducing REDD reduces global forestry emissions through 2050 by 20-22% in the Brazil-only case and by 64-88% in the global REDD scenarios. At the same time, REDD lowers the total costs of the climate policy by an estimated 10-25% depending on which tropical countries participate and whether the “banking” of excess credits for use in future periods is allowed. As a result, REDD could enable additional reductions of at least 20 ppmv of CO2-equivalent concentrations with no added costs compared to an energy-sector only policy. The cost savings from REDD are magnified if banking is allowed and there is a need to increase the stringency of global climate policy in the future in response, for example, to new scientific information. Results also indicate that REDD decreases carbon prices in 2050 by 8-23% with banking and 11-26% without banking. While developing regions, particularly Latin America, gain the value of REDD opportunities, the decrease in the carbon price keeps the value of international carbon market flows relatively stable despite an increase in volumes transacted. We also estimate that REDD generally reduces the total portfolio of investments and research and development of new energy technologies by 1-10%. However, due to impacts on the relative prices of different fossil fuels, REDD has a slight positive estimated effect on investments in coal-related technologies (IGCC and CCS) as well as, in some cases, non-electric energy R&D. This research confirms that integrating REDD into global carbon markets can provide powerful incentives for the preservation of tropical forests while lowering the costs of global climate change protection and providing valuable policy flexibility.Carbon market, Climate change, Innovation, Mitigation, Policy costs, Offsets, Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD), Technological change, Tropical deforestation

Effects of Low-cost Offsets on Energy Investment -New Perspectives on REDD-

Tropical deforestation is one of the major sources of carbon emissions, but the Kyoto Protocol presently excludes avoiding these specific emissions to fulfill stabilization targets. Since the 13th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC in 2007, where the need for policy incentives for the reduction of emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) was first officially recognized, the focus of this debate has shifted to issues of implementation and methodology. One question is how REDD would be financed, which could be solved by integrating REDD credits into existing carbon markets. However, concern has been voiced regarding the effects that the availability of cheap REDD credits might have on energy investments and the development of clean technology. On the other hand, investors and producers are also worried that emissions trading schemes like the one installed in Europe might deter investment into new technologies and harm profits of existing plants due to fluctuations in the price of emissions permits. This paper seeks to contribute to this discussion by developing a real options model, where there is an option to invest in less carbon-intensive energy technology and an option to purchase credits on REDD, which you will exercise or not depending on the future evolution of CO2 prices. In this way, unresolved questions can still be addressed at a later stage, while producers and investors hold REDD options to maintain flexibility for later decisions. We find that investment in cleaner technology is not significantly affected if REDD options are priced as a derivative of CO2 permits. Indeed, the availability of REDD options helps to smooth out price fluctuations that might arise from permit trading and thus decreases risk for the producer - thereby being a complement to permit trading rather than an obstacle undermining cap-and-trade.Real Options, Energy Investment, Cap-And-Trade, REDD