Modelling Land Use in Rural New Zealand

Regional Councils are primarily responsible for environmental management, as specified in the Resource Management Act (RMA), 1991. The Local Government Act 2002 has an integrative component, requiring consideration of social, economic, environmental and cultural well-being of their communities. These two Acts are interesting, as their combination is shaping new governance structures within New Zealand. Different types of policy instruments are available to Regional Councils while carrying out their functions: regulatory, economic and voluntary. The 1990s are characterized by ‘first generation Plans’ of the RMA, which were highly rule focused. In the 2000s a marked shift occurred, mainstreaming ‘community’ and participative approaches to policy. This increased levels of trust between communities and the Regional Councils, and can be seen as building blocks in the formation of social capital. Where rules were not achieving particular policy objectives, interesting new hybrid forms of governance emerged. This paper looks at these newly-formed partnership approaches in New Zealand. The paper traces the emergence of partnerships as a collective form of action, and analyses them from an economic governance perspective. In so doing, the fundamental role of social capital is explained, as a rational economic concept. Regional Councils are centrally placed to anchor partnerships and strengthen their formation, hence strengthening social networks within the regions. The issue of riparian management is explored as a case study to inform how this could occur.Land use change, New Zealand, National, time series, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Q15, Q24,

The Incidence and Persistence of Cyclical Job Loss in New Zealand

In New Zealand, the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was milder than in most other developed countries, with employment declining by 2.5 percent between 2008q4 and 2009q4. Job and worker turnover rates both declined, signalling a reduction in labour market liquidity and difficulties for new entrants and high-turnover groups of workers (Fabling and Maré, 2012). The current paper documents the extent and composition of employment change between 2000 and 2011, focusing on the 2008-2010 period, when the labour market impacts of the GFC were strongest. As in previous downturns, the incidence of cyclical job loss and unemployment fell disproportionately on young and unskilled workers. The paper identifies, by age, gender and earnings level, the sensitivity of employment growth and labour market flows to aggregate employment fluctuations and also to relative fluctuations across industries and regions. The accession rate is particularly sensitive to the economic cycle, most strongly for young workers. Differences in the size of cyclical employment fluctuations reflect differing responsiveness to common shocks and not exposure to different industry and local shocks. Finally, the paper traces outcomes for workers whose jobs end, summarising their duration out of work and the wage increases or reductions they experience when they secure employment. Workers who left or lost jobs spent longer out of work after the GFC and settled for lower earnings growth when they did find a job. Both of these effects had partly but not fully abated within 3 years of the onset of the GFC

Modelling Land Use in Rural New Zealand

Regional Councils are primarily responsible for environmental management, as specified in the Resource Management Act (RMA), 1991. The Local Government Act 2002 has an integrative component, requiring consideration of social, economic, environmental and cultural well-being of their communities. These two Acts are interesting, as their combination is shaping new governance structures within New Zealand. Different types of policy instruments are available to Regional Councils while carrying out their functions: regulatory, economic and voluntary. The 1990s are characterized by ‘first generation Plans’ of the RMA, which were highly rule focused. In the 2000s a marked shift occurred, mainstreaming ‘community’ and participative approaches to policy. This increased levels of trust between communities and the Regional Councils, and can be seen as building blocks in the formation of social capital. Where rules were not achieving particular policy objectives, interesting new hybrid forms of governance emerged. This paper looks at these newly-formed partnership approaches in New Zealand. The paper traces the emergence of partnerships as a collective form of action, and analyses them from an economic governance perspective. In so doing, the fundamental role of social capital is explained, as a rational economic concept. Regional Councils are centrally placed to anchor partnerships and strengthen their formation, hence strengthening social networks within the regions. The issue of riparian management is explored as a case study to inform how this could occur

Gradual Land-use Change in New Zealand: Results from a Dynamic Econometric Model

Rural land use is important for New Zealand’s economic and environmental outcomes. Using a dynamic econometric model and recent New Zealand data, we estimate the response of land use to changing economic returns as proxied by relevant commodity prices. Because New Zealand is small, export prices are credibly exogenous. We show that land use responses can be slow. Our result implies that policy-induced land-use change is likely to be slow or costly

Gradual Land-use Change in New Zealand: Results from a Dynamic

Rural land use is important for New Zealand’s economic and environmental outcomes. Using a dynamic econometric model and recent New Zealand data, we estimate the response of land use to changing economic returns as proxied by relevant commodity prices. Because New Zealand is small, export prices are credibly exogenous. We show that land use responses can be slow. Our result implies that policy-induced land-use change is likely to be slow or costly

A Forest-Profit Expectations Dataset for New Zealand, 1990–2008

In this paper, we construct a dataset of annual expected forest profits in New Zealand from 1990–2008 at a fine spatial resolution. We do not include land values in any of our profit calculations. We estimate four measures of expected forest profits based around net present value (NPV), land expectation value (LEV), equal annual equivalent (EAE), and internal rate of return (IRR). Our estimates of expected profits are based on the assumption that land owners form their expectations adaptively; that is, they use recent data on prices and costs to form expectations. We illustrate our data by showing regional variation in each of our measures, changes over time in NPV on land in forest in 2008, and variation in NPV over space in 2008. The final dataset, working datasets, and the code used in this work are publicly available to the research community and can be accessed from the authors’ website: http ://www.motu.org.nz/building-capacity/dataset/u10073_forest_profit_expectations_dataset

A Forest-Profit Expectations Dataset for New Zealand, 1990–2008

In this paper, we construct a dataset of annual expected forest profits in New Zealand from 1990–2008 at a fine spatial resolution. We do not include land values in any of our profit calculations. We estimate four measures of expected forest profits based around net present value (NPV), land expectation value (LEV), equal annual equivalent (EAE), and internal rate of return (IRR). Our estimates of expected profits are based on the assumption that land owners form their expectations adaptively; that is, they use recent data on prices and costs to form expectations. We illustrate our data by showing regional variation in each of our measures, changes over time in NPV on land in forest in 2008, and variation in NPV over space in 2008. The final dataset, working datasets, and the code used in this work are publicly available to the research community and can be accessed from the authors’ website: http://www.motu.org.nz/building-capacity/dataset/u10073_forest_profit_expectations_dataset

A State Housing Database: 1993-2009

The 1990s saw a significant sell-off of state houses in New Zealand, while the 2000s saw a material rebuilding of the state house inventory. We provide in-depth documentation of a rich spatially-defined dataset of the stock, acquisition and disposal of New Zealand’s state houses since the early 1990s. The paper examines the dataset’s reliability and outlines major national and regional state housing trends since 1993. We detail the levels and changes in density of state housing in New Zealand’s major urban areas, and relate these measures to the areas’ deprivation status. The richness and completeness of the dataset, and the fact that it covers two distinct policy periods (driven primarily by exogenous political preferences), means that it can provide a strong basis for detailed studies on the societal and individual impacts of homeownership and related matters. We discuss future research possibilities that utilise this dataset

Spatial and Temporal Responses to an Emissions Trading Scheme Covering Agriculture and Forestry: Simulation Results from New Zealand

forest

Spatial and Temporal Responses to an Emissions Trading System Covering Agriculture and Forestry: Simulation Results from New Zealand

We perform simulations using the integrated Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model to analyse the effect of various New Zealand emissions trading scheme (ETS) scenarios on land-use, emissions, and output in a temporally and spatially explicit manner. We compare the impact of afforestation to the impact of other land-use change on net greenhouse gas emissions, and evaluate the importance of the forestry component of the ETS relative to the agricultural component. We also examine the effect of land-use change on the time profile of net emissions from the forestry sector. Our projections for the mid-2020s suggest that under a comprehensive ETS, sequestration associated with new planting could be significant; it may approach 20 percent of national inventory agricultural emissions in 2008. Most of this is driven by the reward for forestry rather than a liability for agricultural emissions. Finally, we present projections of future agricultural output under various policy scenarios