Characteristics of patients included in the study.

<p>Characteristics of patients included in the study.</p

The Ebola virus disease epidemic in the Conakry area, Guinea, March 2014 to February 2015.

<p>(A) Map of the study area, which consists of Conakry and the surrounding prefectures of Boffa, Coyah, Dubreka, Forecariah, Fria, Kindia, and Telimele (for which diagnoses were mostly performed by the IPD-LFHP laboratory) (the administrative boundaries were taken from the GADM database; <a href="http://www.gadm.org/" target="_blank">http://www.gadm.org/</a>). (B) Number of cases by month of symptom onset. The total number of probable and confirmed cases in the study area that were hospitalized is indicated in grey. The number of those that were diagnosed by reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) by the IPD-LFHP laboratory is in blue.</p

Viremia and the probability of death.

<p>(A) Mean viremia as a function of the time from symptom onset to sample collection. (B) Mean viremia by gender. (C) Mean viremia by age group. (D) Probability of death as a function of viremia, when viremia was measured in the week following symptom onset. Three viremia groups are defined: low (<i>V</i> < 10^4.4 copies/ml), intermediate (10^4.4 ≤ <i>V</i> < 10^5.2 copies/ml), and high (<i>V</i> ≥ 10^5.2 copies/ml) viremia. The probability of death according to viremia group is represented as dotted line. The grey line corresponds to the predictions of the univariable logistic regression model. (E) Probability of death (dot: observed mean; thick line: 95% CI) as a function of the time from symptom onset to sample collection and the viremia group. Mean predicted values obtained with the multivariable logistic regression (triangle) and the bootstrap prediction intervals (thin lines) are also provided.</p

Variation of CFR and viremia over time.

<p>(A) Observed CFR by month (black) and predictions obtained from multivariable logistic regression (orange) and from the simple univariable logistic regression model that relies only on viremia (violet). Lines provide 95% CI. The shaded area indicates the bootstrap prediction interval. (B) Mean viremia by month. (C) Proportion of patients in the low (red; <i>V</i> < 10^4.4 copies/ml), intermediate (green; 10^4.4 ≤ <i>V</i> < 10^5.2 copies/ml), and high (blue; <i>V</i> ≥ 10^5.2 copies/ml) viremia groups by month.</p