Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2014-2040

The Alaska Fuel Price Projections are developed annually for the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) for the purpose of estimating the potential costs and benefits of renewable energy projects. Project developers submit applications to AEA for grants awarded under the Alaska Renewable Energy Fund (REF) program. These fuel price projections are used to evaluate the economic feasibility of project applications; economic feasibility is only one of many factors of the project evaluation process. Economists at the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA) have completed seven previous Alaska Fuel Price Projections since 2008 (all available at: http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/). In this report we present the methodology for the most recent fuel prices projection. In addition to their use for the REF review, ISER researchers use the projections for other economic research and energy project evaluations. The fuel price projections also fulfill an important need for price information and are used by many stakeholders in addition to AEA. As a result of their broad use among the public, we expanded what used to be cursory notes on methodology. Our intent is to provide more detailed information to the report’s readers and users of the fuel price projections.Alaska Energy AuthorityBackground / Projection vs. Forecast / Data Sources / Projections / References / Appendix A. Projection methodolog

All-Alaska Rate Electric Power Pricing Structure

Economists at the Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage were asked to research the potential options and impacts of establishing an All-Alaska Rate as an alternative to the current Power Cost Equalization (PCE) program funding formula. We were asked to provide a history of the PCE program and information on electricity rates and patterns of consumption across regions of Alaska. This report provides the results of this analysis. Alaska is unique in many ways, including its consumption and pricing of electricity. There are large regional differences in consumption and prices that result from proximity to different types and quantities of resources. Differences in remoteness and population size also influence costs. Urban areas in the southern Railbelt benefit from larger economies of scale and access to natural gas and hydroelectric resources; the majority of hydroelectric facilities are located in Southcentral and Southeast Alaska. Most communities in rural Alaska depend on volatile and high price fossil fuels for the generation of electricity. The Alaska statewide weighted average residential rate for electricity (17.6 cents per kilowatt (kWh) in CY2011) is higher than the U.S. average of 11.8 cents per kWh (U.S. EIA, 2012). Alaska now trails behind Hawaii (34.5 cents), New York (18.4 cents) and Connecticut (18.1 cents) based on ranking of average residential price per kWh. Hidden in the Alaska statewide average is considerable variation with some communities paying less than the national average and some paying considerably more.Senate Finance Committee, Alaska State Legislature.Executive Summary / Introduction / Review of Current Residential Consumption and Price of Electricity / Power Cost Equalization History / Electricity Rates and Levels of Consumption / Customer responsiveness to price changes / All-Alaska Rate / References / Appendix A. Price elasticity of demand in PCE communities / Appendix B. PCE funding levels per year / Appendix C. PCe appropriations and disbursements over time / Appendix D. Communities/Locations in the Railbeld region / Appendix E. Residential and effective rates of PCE communities, 2001-2010 / Appendix F. Effective residential rates and consumption of electricity in PCE communities, 2008-2010 / Appendix G. PCE communities characteristics of importance as factors of electricity production and deman

Youth in Crisis Characteristics of Homeless Youth Served by Covenant House Alaska

This research is the result of a partnership between Covenant House Alaska and the Institute of Social and Economic Research at the University of Alaska, Anchorage, as part of a national effort, initiated by Covenant House Institute, to create partnerships between Covenant House service providers and academic institutions. This report documents trends in use of Crisis Center at Covenant House Alaska and the characteristics of its clients. Use of Crisis Center, measured by visits and length of stay, has been increasing since 2003. The number of youth coming to Covenant House Crisis Center from outside of Anchorage is increasing, as is the number Alaska Natives served by Covenant House. Data indicate that many after aging out of foster care, many youth end up at Covenant House. Similarly many who receive mental health care outside of the state, return to Alaska and end up at Crisis Center. Few have high school diplomas or GED and three out of four are unemployed.Covenant House Alask

Research Summary No. 73

This publication is mostly about electricity in Alaska: how it’s generated, how much fuel is used to produce it, how fuel sources have shifted over time, and how prices vary. An inside foldout map shows how individual communities throughout the state generate electricity. But besides looking in detail at electricity, it also reports more broadly on energy in Alaska. It includes our estimates of all the types of energy produced and consumed in Alaska, and summarizes changes over time in the prices and amounts of energy Alaskans use

Alaska Energy Statistics 1960‐2009

This report has had various publishers. Before 1985, the federal Alaska Power Administration published Alaska Electric Power Statistics. Then, the Alaska Energy Authority (formerly the Alaska Power Authority) began gathering statistical data and publishing this annual report. In 1988, the Alaska Electric Power Statistics report became a combined effort of the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Energy Authority. Beginning in 1993, the report became a joint effort of the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Energy. After the 1995 report, no reports were issued until 2003, when the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at the University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA), published a report, with funding from the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA), the Regulatory Commission of Alaska (RCA), and the Denali Commission. ISER prepared this twenty‐fourth edition of the Alaska Electric Energy Statistics in collaboration with the Alaska Energy Authority. Unlike previous reports, data tables are presented solely in digital form in an MS Excel file. The workbook containing the data tables is available on the ISER website at http://iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Publications/AlaskaEnergyStatisticsCY2009Tables.xlsx) and the AEA website (http://www.akenergyauthority.org/).The data tables are presented in a dataset format for convenient use and manipulation. All data presented are identified by the geographic regions used in previous Alaska Electric Energy Statistics,1 as well as AEA energy regions, Alaska Native corporation regions, and census areas.Alaska Energy Authority.Introduction / Summary and Highlight

Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2012-2035

This and previous Alaska fuel price projections were developed for the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) for the purpose of estimating the potential benefits and costs of renewable energy projects. Project developers submit applications to AEA for grants awarded under the Alaska Renewable Energy Fund program process. The fuel price projections are not price forecasts but a statistical estimation of potential future utility avoided fuel costs based on the relationships between historic utility fuel prices and crude oil and refinery prices reported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA). These statistically estimated relationships are used to project potential future fuel prices based on EIA’s published Annual Energy Outlook crude oil and natural gas price forecasts. In addition to developing these low, medium and high fuel price projections, estimates of the social cost of carbon (previously included as estimates of potential carbon taxes), and a price differential for home heating fuel are provided and are incorporated into the Renewable Energy Fund benefit-cost model for evaluating potential projects. Previously, a five cents premium for low sulfur fuels was added to the projections in anticipation of implementation of low sulfur fuel air quality requirements. However, the low sulfur fuel requirement was implemented in 2010; hence recent prices reflect the effects of the rule and a premium is no longer necessary. The fuel price projections are limited in their applicability to the modeling of project benefits and costs and should not be considered fuel price forecasts.Alaska Energy AuthorityIntroduction / Methods and Assumptions / Natural Gas / Fuel Oil / Reference

Alaska Energy Statistics 1960-2011 Preliminary Report

Prior to 1985, the federal Alaska Power Administration published the Alaska Electric Power Statistics. Then, the Alaska Energy Authority (formerly the Alaska Power Authority) began gathering statistical data and publishing this annual report. In 1988, the Alaska Electric Power Statistics report became a combined effort between the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Energy Authority. Beginning in 1993, the report became a joint effort between the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Energy. After the 1995 report, no further reports were published until 2003 when a report was prepared by the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA), with funding provided by the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA), the Regulatory Commission of Alaska (RCA), and the Denali Commission. Beginning in 2008, Alaska Electric Energy Statistics updates have been prepared by ISER in partnership with AEA. The purpose of this report is to present electric power reference data for Alaska; it is not intended to provide detailed analysis of energy production, consumption or uses.Alaska Energy Authority.Introduction / Summary and Highlight

Components of Alaska Fuel Costs: An Analysis of the Market Factors and Characteristics that Influence Rural Fuel Prices

Many Alaskans face extremely high, volatile fuel prices. Little is publicly known about the actual structure of Alaska’s rural fuel markets and what drives prices at the community level. The Alaska State Senate Finance Committee asked economists at the University of Alaska Anchorage, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) to investigate rural Alaska fuel markets and identify policy options that could be considered for legislative action to reduce fuel prices. This study is both an update and an evolution of previous ISER Components of Fuel Costs studies.1 It does not include road-accessible communities.Alaska State Legislature Senate Finance CommitteeAcknowledgements / Executive Summary / Introduction / Western Alaska Fuel Market / Ice Free Coastal Alaska Fuel Market / Community Fuel Survey Results / Policy Options / References / Glossary of Terms / Appendix A. Results of Community Fuel Price Survey January 201

Power Cost Equalization Funding Formula Review

The purpose of this study is to examine the current Power Cost Equalization (PCE) program formula’s impacts on incentives for implementation of energy efficiency and renewable energy measures. In addition, it examines if alternative formula structures might improve market signals that are more conducive to investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy in rural Alaska. As part of the analysis we also present information on the history of the PCE program and levels and patterns of electricity consumption across regions of Alaska. Alaska has large regional and intra-regional differences in energy consumption and prices that result from a number of factors including proximity to different types and quantities of resources, community population, remoteness, and transportation costs. Most communities in rural Alaska depend on volatile and high priced fossil fuels for the generation of electricity, space heating and transportation. The Alaska statewide weighted average residential rate for electricity (17.6 cents per kWh in CY2011) is substantially higher than the U.S. average of 11.8 cents per kWh (U.S. EIA, 2012). Yet in Alaska the average residential rate per kWh is currently lower than in Hawaii (34.5 cents), New York (18.4 cents) and Connecticut (18.1 cents). Hidden in the Alaska statewide average is considerable variation with some communities paying less than the national average and some—generally those least able to afford it—paying among the highest in the country. The Railbelt and Southeast regions have the lowest average residential electric rates (Appendix I map). North Slope residential customers also have lower average rates because of access to natural gas and North Slope Borough energy payments in addition to PCE disbursements. Most other regions have rates two to three times as high as Alaska urban rates. Some communities with hydroelectric power have notably low rates but customers are not paying the full, true cost of power because the cost of construction was heavily subsidized by state and federal governments. In Table 3 (p. 20) we present average annual residential electricity consumption and rates for different regions of Alaska.National Renewable Energy LaboratoryTable of Figures and Tables / Executive Summary / Introduction / Power Cost Equalization History / Electricity Rates and Levels of Consumption / How the current Power Cost Equalization funding formula works / Analysis / Policy considerations / References / Appendix A. PCE funding levels per year / Appendix B. PCE appropriations and disbursements over time / Appendix C. Residential and effective rates of PCE communities, 2001-2010 / Appendix D. Effective residential rates and consumption of electricity in PCE communities, 2008-2010 / Appendix F. PCE communities characteristics of importance as factors of electricity production and demand / Appendix G. Monthly Customer Payments under Current PCE Formula and Seasonal Fixed Payment Formula / Appendix H. Data sources and methods / Appendix I. Map of Alaska Energy Region

Alaska Energy Statistics 1960-2011 Final Report

This twenty-sixth edition of the Alaska Energy Statistics reconciles energy data from public sources and makes that data more easily available to the public and stakeholders. It primarily presents 2011 data on electricity produced by certified utilities in Alaska. It includes a brief introduction, highlights, and summary data tables. The first major section describes basic statistical indicators for Alaska utilities, and the second discusses renewable energy in Alaska. After that we look more broadly at the big picture of energy in Alaska, describing production and consumption of various energy sources. A series of appendixes defines terms, lists references, and describes data sources. This report presents data for the state and for the 11 Alaska Energy Authority energy regions. In an accompanying workbook, we also present data by U.S. census areas, Alaska Native corporation regions, and regions used in earlier Alaska Electric Energy Statistics reports.8 Unlike the preliminary version of this report, issued in fall 2012, this final report includes installed capacity data tables for 2011, as well as additional chapters on renewable energy and other Alaska energy information.Alaska Energy AuthorityTable of Contents / List of Tables / List of Figures / Summary and Highlights / Introduction / Electric Sector / Renewable-Sourced Energy in Alaska / Energy in Alaska / Appendix A/ Glossary of Terms / Appendix B. References / Appendix C. RCA Utility Regulatory Codes Summary / Appendix D. Data Sources for Electric Energy Statistics / Appendix E. Reporting Requirement