The burden of diabetes mellitus in KwaZulu-Natal’s public sector: A 5-year perspective

Background. Diabetes mellitus (DM), together with its devastating complications, has a huge impact on both the patients it affects and the global economy as a whole. The economies of developing countries are already under threat from communicable diseases. More needs to be done to stem the tide of non-communicable diseases like DM. In order for us to develop new strategies to tackle this dread disease we need to obtain and analyse as many data as possible from the geographical area where we work.Objective. To describe the burden of DM in the public sector of the province of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa (SA).Method. Data on the number of diabetes visits, DM patients that were initiated on treatment, defaulters and DM-related amputations were accessed from the Department of Health records for the period 2010 - 2014 inclusive.Results. There was a decline in the number of patients initiated on treatment per 100 000 population from 2010 to 2014 inclusive (265.9 v. 197.5 v. 200.7 v. 133.4 v. 148.7). Defaulter rates for 2013 compared with 2014 were 3.31% v. 1.75%, respectively and amputation rates were 0.09% v. 0.05% for 2013 and 2014, respectively. There was a strong proportional relationship observed between the number of defaulters and number of diabetes-related amputations (r=0.801; p=0.000) (Pearson correlation). A notable percentage of DM patients ranging between 63% and 80% were commenced on pharmacological therapy at their local clinics rather than at hospitals in the province.Conclusion. Strategies directed towards detection and treatment of DM, together with decreasing defaulter rates and thereby decreasing diabetes-related amputations, need to be addressed urgently. The majority of patients were initiated on therapy at the clinic level. This emphasises the need to strengthen our clinics in terms of resources, staffing, and nursing and clinician education, as this is where diabetes control begins. Although this study was based solely in KZN, the second most populous province in SA, it probably reflects the current situation regarding DM in other provinces of SA as well

The Melbourne Shuffle: Improving Oblivious Storage in the Cloud

We present a simple, efficient, and secure data-oblivious randomized shuffle algorithm. This is the first secure data-oblivious shuffle that is not based on sorting. Our method can be used to improve previous oblivious storage solutions for network-based outsourcing of data

Exact calculations of first-passage quantities on recursive networks

We present general methods to exactly calculate mean-first passage quantities on self-similar networks defined recursively. In particular, we calculate the mean first-passage time and the splitting probabilities associated to a source and one or several targets; averaged quantities over a given set of sources (e.g., same-connectivity nodes) are also derived. The exact estimate of such quantities highlights the dependency of first-passage processes with respect to the source-target distance, which has recently revealed to be a key parameter to characterize transport in complex media. We explicitly perform calculations for different classes of recursive networks (finitely ramified fractals, scale-free (trans)fractals, non-fractals, mixtures between fractals and non-fractals, non-decimable hierarchical graphs) of arbitrary size. Our approach unifies and significantly extends the available results in the field.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figure

Cutoff for the East process

The East process is a 1D kinetically constrained interacting particle system, introduced in the physics literature in the early 90's to model liquid-glass transitions. Spectral gap estimates of Aldous and Diaconis in 2002 imply that its mixing time on $L$ sites has order $L$. We complement that result and show cutoff with an $O(\sqrt{L})$-window. The main ingredient is an analysis of the front of the process (its rightmost zero in the setup where zeros facilitate updates to their right). One expects the front to advance as a biased random walk, whose normal fluctuations would imply cutoff with an $O(\sqrt{L})$-window. The law of the process behind the front plays a crucial role: Blondel showed that it converges to an invariant measure $\nu$, on which very little is known. Here we obtain quantitative bounds on the speed of convergence to $\nu$, finding that it is exponentially fast. We then derive that the increments of the front behave as a stationary mixing sequence of random variables, and a Stein-method based argument of Bolthausen ('82) implies a CLT for the location of the front, yielding the cutoff result. Finally, we supplement these results by a study of analogous kinetically constrained models on trees, again establishing cutoff, yet this time with an $O(1)$-window.Comment: 33 pages, 2 figure

Triangle percolation in mean field random graphs -- with PDE

We apply a PDE-based method to deduce the critical time and the size of the giant component of the ``triangle percolation'' on the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph process investigated by Palla, Der\'enyi and VicsekComment: Summary of the changes made: We have changed a remark about k-clique percolation in the first paragraph. Two new paragraphs are inserted after equation (4.4) with two applications of the equation. We have changed the names of some variables in our formula

Empires and Percolation: Stochastic Merging of Adjacent Regions

We introduce a stochastic model in which adjacent planar regions $A, B$ merge stochastically at some rate $\lambda(A,B)$, and observe analogies with the well-studied topics of mean-field coagulation and of bond percolation. Do infinite regions appear in finite time? We give a simple condition on $\lambda$ for this {\em hegemony} property to hold, and another simple condition for it to not hold, but there is a large gap between these conditions, which includes the case $\lambda(A,B) \equiv 1$. For this case, a non-rigorous analytic argument and simulations suggest hegemony.Comment: 13 page

Particle Systems with Stochastic Passing

We study a system of particles moving on a line in the same direction. Passing is allowed and when a fast particle overtakes a slow particle, it acquires a new velocity drawn from a distribution P_0(v), while the slow particle remains unaffected. We show that the system reaches a steady state if P_0(v) vanishes at its lower cutoff; otherwise, the system evolves indefinitely.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figure

Random multi-index matching problems

The multi-index matching problem (MIMP) generalizes the well known matching problem by going from pairs to d-uplets. We use the cavity method from statistical physics to analyze its properties when the costs of the d-uplets are random. At low temperatures we find for d>2 a frozen glassy phase with vanishing entropy. We also investigate some properties of small samples by enumerating the lowest cost matchings to compare with our theoretical predictions.Comment: 22 pages, 16 figure

Random tree growth by vertex splitting

We study a model of growing planar tree graphs where in each time step we separate the tree into two components by splitting a vertex and then connect the two pieces by inserting a new link between the daughter vertices. This model generalises the preferential attachment model and Ford's $\alpha$-model for phylogenetic trees. We develop a mean field theory for the vertex degree distribution, prove that the mean field theory is exact in some special cases and check that it agrees with numerical simulations in general. We calculate various correlation functions and show that the intrinsic Hausdorff dimension can vary from one to infinity, depending on the parameters of the model.Comment: 47 page

The scaling limit of the incipient infinite cluster in high-dimensional percolation. II. Integrated super-Brownian excursion

For independent nearest-neighbour bond percolation on Z^d with d >> 6, we prove that the incipient infinite cluster's two-point function and three-point function converge to those of integrated super-Brownian excursion (ISE) in the scaling limit. The proof is based on an extension of the new expansion for percolation derived in a previous paper, and involves treating the magnetic field as a complex variable. A special case of our result for the two-point function implies that the probability that the cluster of the origin consists of n sites, at the critical point, is given by a multiple of n^{-3/2}, plus an error term of order n^{-3/2-\epsilon} with \epsilon >0. This is a strong statement that the critical exponent delta is given by delta =2.Comment: 56 pages, 3 Postscript figures, in AMS-LaTeX, with graphicx, epic, and xr package