Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection

We investigate the merit of deriving an estimate of the basic reproduction number \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} $$\mathcal{R}_0$$ \end{document} early in an outbreak of an (emerging) infection from estimates of the incidence and generation interval only. We compare such estimates of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} $$\mathcal{R}_0$$ \end{document} with estimates incorporating additional model assumptions, and determine the circumstances under which the different estimates are consistent. We show that one has to be careful when using observed exponential growth rates to derive an estimate of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} $$\mathcal{R}_0$$ \end{document} , and we quantify the discrepancies that arise

Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data.</p> <p>Main findings</p> <p>First, critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second, we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the optimal timing of quarantine and isolation measures can be determined. Case studies demonstrate the following. (1) The upper confidence limit of the 99th percentile of the incubation period is 22.2 days, suggesting that quarantine should last 23 days. (2) The highest frequency (61.8%) of secondary transmissions occurs 3–5 days after onset of fever so that infected individuals should be isolated before the appearance of rash. (3) The U-shaped age-specific case fatality implies a vulnerability of infants and elderly among non-immune individuals. Estimates of the transmission potential are subsequently reviewed, followed by an assessment of vaccination effects and of the expected effectiveness of interventions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Current debates on bio-terrorism preparedness indicate that public health decision making must account for the complex interplay and balance between vaccination strategies and other public health measures (e.g. case isolation and contact tracing) taking into account the frequency of adverse events to vaccination. In this review, we summarize what has already been clarified and point out needs to analyze previous smallpox outbreaks systematically.</p

Responding to inequities: gorillas try to maintain their competitive advantage during play fights

Humans respond to unfair situations in various ways. Experimental research has revealed that non-human species also respond to unequal situations in the form of inequity aversions when they have the disadvantage. The current study focused on play fights in gorillas to explore for the first time, to our knowledge, if/how non-human species respond to inequities in natural social settings. Hitting causes a naturally occurring inequity among individuals and here it was specifically assessed how the hitters and their partners engaged in play chases that followed the hitting. The results of this work showed that the hitters significantly more often moved first to run away immediately after the encounter than their partners. These findings provide evidence that non-human species respond to inequities by trying to maintain their competitive advantages. We conclude that non-human primates, like humans, may show different responses to inequities and that they may modify them depending on if they have the advantage or the disadvantage

Aggress Behav

Rough‐and‐tumble play (RTP), also known as play fighting, is a common form of play frequently reported and studied by researchers. However, one important limitation of past research in the area of RTP has been the neglect of the adolescence period. Consequently, little is known about the function of adolescent RTP as well as about clinical characteristics of youth who engage in this activity after childhood. In a school‐based sample of 1,771 middle school students (ages 9–16 years), the current study sought to address this gap by examining, via bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, the potential cross‐sectional associations of adolescent RTP with (a) selected demographic variables, (b) conduct problem symptoms, (c) substance use, and (d) risk‐taking behaviors, including adjustment for several demographic confounders. Results indicated that adolescents reporting higher rates of conduct problem symptoms were more likely to report a recent participation in RTP. In addition, substance use (experimentation and current consumption of tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana) and risk behaviors assessed all were strongly associated with an increased likelihood of reporting an engagement in RTP. This finding suggests that participation in this activity probably implicates particular phenotypic characteristics including the propensity to engage in health‐damaging behaviors. But the most profound issue raised by this research concerns the strong relationship between RTP and great levels of conduct disorder symptoms, suggesting a possible significant change in the functional significance of RTP in the adolescence period