F.Y. Edgeworth’s Treatise on Probabilities

Probability theory has a central role in Edgeworth’s thought; this paper examines the philosophical foundation of the theory. Starting from a frequentist position, Edgeworth introduced some innovations on the definition of primitive probabilities. He distinguished between primitive probabilities based on experience of statistical evidence, and primitive a priori probabilities based on a more general and less precise kind of experience, inherited by the human race through evolution. Given primitive probabilities, no other devices than the rules of calculus are necessary to infer complex probabilities, as the ones defined by Bayes’s theorem –an enlargement of the frequentist tradition as defined by Venn. The notion of probability is objective; the passage from this objective sphere to the epistemic one requires rules external to the theory of probability. Edgeworth distinguishes between two notions: credibility which is the direct translation of probability into the epistemic sphere, and obeys the same rules of the latter; and belief having a weak relation with probability, based as it it not only on experiential knowledge, but also on “instinct and sentiment”. According to a Nineteenth century tradition, belief is the base of human action; Edgeworth concludes therefore that probability is not useful for the theory of decision. We propose to classify Edgeworth’s theory of probability as precursor of modern eclectic or pluralistic tradition on probability, and according to which probability has an irreducible dualistic nature.F.Y. Edgeworth, Philosophy of probability, Frequentist probability, Bayes’s theorem

Italian economic journals. A network-based ranking and an exploratory analysis of their influence on setting international professional standards

An exploratory analysis of the crossed presence (interlocking editorship) of the same scholars in the editorial boards of Italian and international economic journals is developed. The position and the degree of integration of Italian journals in the worldwide network of economic journals is studied with network analysis techniques and a ranking of Italian journals, based on a measure of centrality, is proposed. Then relatively compact groups of international journals are individuated, representing different specialized sub-field or different methodological approaches to the study of economics. The analysis of the relative position of Italian journals in those groups suggests that Italian journals are not connected to the cores of the various schools operating at an international level, with the only exception of the history of economic thoughtEconomic journals; Italian economic journals; ranking of journals; editorial boards

Edgeworth on the Foundations of Ethics and Probability

This paper analyses the foundation of utilitarian ethics and theory of probability in the works of Francis Y. Edgeworth. We argue that he pursued an unitary philosophical project, the search for a common epistemological foundation for the social sciences. The common root of the disciplines is the notion of “hereditary experience” derived from Herbert Spencer’s work. We suggest that this reconstruction can modify the overall interpretation of Edgeworth’s thought.F.Y. Edgeworth, Probability, Utilitarianism

Francis Ysidro Edgeworth on the regularity of law and the impartiality of chance

This paper proposes a general interpretation of Edgworth’s thought based on the recognition of a unitary philosophical project in his contributions to ethics, economics, probability and statistics. This project consists in the search for a common epistemological foundation for the social sciences. The point is illustrated in reference to the coexistence in Edgworthian scientific programme of the ‘regularity of law’ with the ‘impartiality of chance’. The interpretation here proposed challenges the traditional stereotypes according to which Edgeworth was a crass utilitarian, and an ingenuous advocate of a rather primitive neoclassical economics. His plea for the use of mathematics, and his choice of deterministic models for the description of the economic behaviour, appear more innovative when the role of probability is considered

Interlocking Editorship. A Network Analysis of the Links Between Economic Journals

The exploratory analysis developed in this paper relies on the hypothesis that each editor possesses some power in the definition of the editorial policy of her journal. Consequently if the same scholar sits on the board of editors of two journals, those journals could have some common elements in their editorial policies. The proximity of the editorial policies of two scientific journals can be assessed by the number of common editors sitting on their boards. A database of all editors of ECONLIT journals is used. The structure of the network generated by interlocking editorship is explored by applying the instruments of network analysis. Evidences have been found of a compact network containing different components. This is interpreted as the result of a plurality of perspectives about the appropriate methods for the investigation of problems and the construction of theories within the domain of economicsNetworks; Economic journals; Editorial boards; Interlocking editorship

Is technological change really skill biased? Evidence from the introduction of ICTs on the textile sector (1980-2000)

This paper investigates the effects of the introduction of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on the skills of a workforce. Using micro-data collected from workers in the textile sector, we analyse whether the introduction of ICTs has modified workers’ tasks, so that higher skills and longer training periods than before are necessary. Our survey has shown that ICTs i) have replaced unskilled labour in some cases and skilled labour in others; ii) have changed workers’ tasks in some cases but not in others; and finally, iii) have brought about an increase in skills for only a small number of occupations. This empirical evidence does not confirm the hypothesis that technological change, and in particular change introduced by ICTs, is necessarily skill biasedTechnological change, skill bias, textile industry

Sull’uso del lavoro sommerso da parte delle imprese. La costruzione di un modello microeconometrico con i dati ispettivi INPS

The aim of this paper is to explore the use of administrative data to study the choices of firms relating to the utilization of regular and irregular workers. The data are collected by the INPS (National Social Security Administration) during inspection activity aimed to catch irregular workers and underground firms. Starting from INPS data we construct a microeconometric model in which the ratio between regular and irregular workers depends from characteristics of firm (size, sector, localization) and some measures of intensity and efficacy of inspection activity.

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Citation gaming induced by bibliometric evaluation: a country-level comparative analysis

It is several years since national research evaluation systems around the globe started making use of quantitative indicators to measure the performance of researchers. Nevertheless, the effects on these systems on the behavior of the evaluated researchers are still largely unknown. We attempt to shed light on this topic by investigating how Italian researchers reacted to the introduction in 2011 of national regulations in which key passages of professional careers are governed by bibliometric indicators. A new inwardness measure, able to gauge the degree of scientific self-referentiality of a country, is defined as the proportion of citations coming from the country itself compared to the total number of citations gathered by the country. Compared to the trends of the other G10 countries in the period 2000-2016, Italy's inwardness shows a net increase after the introduction of the new evaluation rules. Indeed, globally and also for a large majority of the research fields, Italy became the European country with the highest inwardness. Possible explanations are proposed and discussed, concluding that the observed trends are strongly suggestive of a generalized strategic use of citations, both in the form of author self-citations and of citation clubs. We argue that the Italian case offers crucial insights on the constitutive effects of evaluation systems. As such, it could become a paradigmatic case in the debate about the use of indicators in science-policy contexts