Economic viability of transmission capacity expansion at high wind penetrations

With growing wind power penetrations in many countries, grid and system integration becomes more and more important issues. This is particularly the case in countries or regions with good wind resources as well as substantial installed wind power capacity as found in e.g. Northern Europe. At 20% penetration in Western Denmark, the issue is pertinent here in relation to future plans of further expansion which is planned in accordance with the Danish Government’s climate change mitigation initiatives. This paper analyses the potential economic benefit of selling excess electricity production on the Nordic power pool Nord Pool in relation to the added expenses of expanding national and international transmission capacity from Denmark in order to accommodate the added export. This is done through energy systems analyses, transmission grid modelling, analyses or the required transmission grid investments and analyses of the Nord Pool price variations. The analyses are done for varying degrees of wind power penetrations ranging from 20% of the West Danish electricity demand up to 100% of the demand. The analyses demonstrate, that while there is an economic potential for some expansion in some years, in most cases the added investment proves unfeasible and either reduction of the wind turbines production under excess generation situations or other uses is more profitable unless the wind penetration very high

Energy system impacts of desalination in Jordan

Climate change mitigation calls for energy systems minimising end-use demands, optimising the fuel efficiency of conversion systems, increasing the use of renewable energy sources and exploiting synergies wherever possible. In parallel, global fresh water resources are strained due to amongst others population and wealth increase and competitive water uses from agriculture and industry is causing many nations to turn to desalination technologies. This article investigates a Jordanian energy scenario with two different desalination technologies; reverse osmosis (RO) driven by electricity and Multi Stage Flash (MSF) desalination driven by Cogeneration of Heat and Power (CHP). The two systems impact the energy systems in different ways due to the technologies’ particular characteristics. The systems are analyses in the energy systems analysis model EnergyPLAN to determine the impacts on energy system performance. Results indicate that RO and MSF are similar in fuel use. While there is no use of waste heat from condensing mode plants, efficiencies for CHP and MSF are not sufficiently good to results in lower fuel usage than RO. The Jordanian energy system is somewhat inflexible giving cause to Critical Excess Electricity Production (CEEP) even at relatively modest wind power penetrations. Here RO assists the energy system in decreasing CEEP – and even more if water storage is applied

Energy Systems Scenario Modelling and Long Term Forecasting of Hourly Electricity Demand

The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles