Impact of mitigating obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity on type 2 diabetes mellitus burden in Oman: insights from mathematical modeling.

INTRODUCTION: To estimate the impact of reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity (PIA) prevalence, and of introducing physical activity (PA) as an explicit intervention, on the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Oman. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A deterministic population-level mathematical model was employed to investigate the impact of different scenarios for reducing T2DM risk factors on T2DM epidemiology. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status and parameterized with nationally representative data. Intervention scenarios were calculated and compared with a baseline (no-intervention) scenario for changes in T2DM prevalence, incidence, and mortality among adult Omanis between 2020 and 2050. RESULTS: In the no-intervention scenario, T2DM prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. Achieving the goals of halting the rise of obesity, reducing smoking by 30%, and reducing PIA by 10% as outlined in the WHO's Global Action Plan for Non-communicable Diseases (implemented between 2020 and 2030 and then maintained between 2031 and 2050) would reduce T2DM prevalence by 32.2%, cumulative incidence by 31.3%, and related deaths by 19.3% by 2050. Halting the rise of or reducing obesity prevalence by 10%-50% would reduce T2DM prevalence by 33.0%-51.3%, cumulative incidence by 31.9%-53.0%, and related deaths by 19.5%-35.6%. Reducing smoking or PIA prevalence by 10%-50% would lead to smaller reductions of less than 5% in T2DM prevalence, cumulative incidence, and related deaths. Introducing PA with varying intensities at a 25% coverage would reduce T2DM prevalence by 4.9%-14.1%, cumulative incidence by 4.8%-13.8%, and related deaths by 3.4%-9.6% by 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Intervention-for-prevention efforts targeting obesity reduction and introducing PA could result in major reductions in the T2DM burden. Prioritizing such interventions could alleviate the burden of T2DM in Oman and other countries with similarly high T2DM and obesity burdens

Epidemiological impact of public health interventions against diabetes in Qatar: mathematical modeling analyses.

AIMS: To predict the epidemiological impact of specific, and primarily structural public health interventions that address lifestyle, dietary, and commuting behaviors of Qataris as well as subsidies and legislation to reduce type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) burden among Qataris. METHODS: A deterministic population-based mathematical model was used to investigate the impact of public health interventions on the epidemiology of T2DM among Qataris aged 20-79 years, which is the age range typically used by the International Diabetes Federation for adults. The study evaluated the impact of interventions up to 2050, a three-decade time horizon, to allow for the long-term effects of different types of interventions to materialize. The impact of each intervention was evaluated by comparing the predicted T2DM incidence and prevalence with the intervention to a counterfactual scenario without intervention. The model was parameterized using representative data and stratified by sex, age, T2DM risk factors, T2DM status, and intervention status. RESULTS: All intervention scenarios had an appreciable impact on reducing T2DM incidence and prevalence. A lifestyle management intervention approach, specifically applied to those who are categorized as obese and ≥35 years old, averted 9.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. An active commuting intervention approach, specifically increasing cycling and walking, averted 8.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. Enhancing consumption of healthy diets including fruits and vegetables, specifically a workplace intervention involving dietary modifications and an educational intervention, averted 23.2% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A subsidy and legislative intervention approach, implementing subsidies on fruits and vegetables and taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages, averted 7.4% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A least to most optimistic combination of interventions averted 22.8-46.9% of new T2DM cases by 2050, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing a combination of individual-level and structural public health interventions is critical to prevent T2DM onset and to slow the growing T2DM epidemic in Qatar

Epidemiological impact of public health interventions against diabetes in Qatar: mathematical modeling analyses

AimsTo predict the epidemiological impact of specific, and primarily structural public health interventions that address lifestyle, dietary, and commuting behaviors of Qataris as well as subsidies and legislation to reduce type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) burden among Qataris.MethodsA deterministic population-based mathematical model was used to investigate the impact of public health interventions on the epidemiology of T2DM among Qataris aged 20–79 years, which is the age range typically used by the International Diabetes Federation for adults. The study evaluated the impact of interventions up to 2050, a three-decade time horizon, to allow for the long-term effects of different types of interventions to materialize. The impact of each intervention was evaluated by comparing the predicted T2DM incidence and prevalence with the intervention to a counterfactual scenario without intervention. The model was parameterized using representative data and stratified by sex, age, T2DM risk factors, T2DM status, and intervention status.ResultsAll intervention scenarios had an appreciable impact on reducing T2DM incidence and prevalence. A lifestyle management intervention approach, specifically applied to those who are categorized as obese and ≥35 years old, averted 9.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. An active commuting intervention approach, specifically increasing cycling and walking, averted 8.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. Enhancing consumption of healthy diets including fruits and vegetables, specifically a workplace intervention involving dietary modifications and an educational intervention, averted 23.2% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A subsidy and legislative intervention approach, implementing subsidies on fruits and vegetables and taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages, averted 7.4% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A least to most optimistic combination of interventions averted 22.8–46.9% of new T2DM cases by 2050, respectively.ConclusionsImplementing a combination of individual-level and structural public health interventions is critical to prevent T2DM onset and to slow the growing T2DM epidemic in Qatar