Forecasting the nominal exchange rate movements in a changing world. The case of the U.S. and the U.K.

Exchange rate forecasting has become an arena for many researchers the last decades while predictability depends heavily on several factors such as the choice of the fundamentals, the econometric model and the data form. The aim of this paper is to assess whether modelling time-variation and other forms of instabilities may improve the forecasting performance of the models. Paper begins with a brief critical review of the recently developed exchange rate forecasting models and continues with a real-time forecasting race between our fundamentals-based models, a DSGE model, estimated with Bayesian techniques and the benchmark random walk model without drift. Results suggest that models accounting for non-linearities may generate poor forecasts relative to more parsimonious and linear models

Loss Aversion and Ruinous Optimal Wagering in the Markowitz Model of Non-Expected Utility

The purpose in this note is to demonstrate that the non-expected utility model of Markowitz implies that agents can obtain maximum expected utility from wagering all of their wealth on actuarialy unfair high probability outcomes. In order to remove this property it is necessary to assume that loss aversion tends to infinity as stake size as a proportion of wealth approaches unity

Loss aversion and ruinous optimal wagers in cumulative prospect theory

We demonstrate that extant parametric specifications of Cumulative Prospect Theory exhibit counterfactual implications for optimal wagers at actuarially unfair odds. In particular they imply individuals may maximizes their utility, called value function in Cumulative Prospect Theory, by wagering all or large proportions of their wealth on actuarially unfair gambles. In order to eliminate this property it is necessary that loss aversion is unbounded and increases as stake size increases. We present new parametric specifications of the value function over losses that exhibit this feature and therefore eliminate the ruinous wagering property

Pre-Decision Side-Bet Sequences

Risk-averse Expected Utility (EU) decision makers with wealth-dependent utility functions may find themselves indifferent between accepting and rejecting an indivisible risky prospect. Bell (1988) showed that under these circumstances it is EU-enhancing for the decision maker to engage in a pre-decision side bet, accepting the indivisible risky prospect conditional upon winning the side bet. The side bet places the decision maker on the convex hull between the initial-wealth utility function and the utility function with risky-prospect-augmented wealth. We show that decision makers restricted to actuarially unfair side bets engage in a sequence of individually EU-enhancing side bets. This occurs because optimal stake size is modest for actuarially unfair side bets, whereby wealth remains within the interval of interim convexity upon losing the side bet. As optimal stake size falls strongly with each successive side-bet round, wealth remains within the interval of interim convexity. The EU enhancement conferred by each successive round is also strongly diminishing. Hence the side-bet sequence is eventually truncated when no further EU enhancement is available

Pre-Decision Side-Bet Sequences

Risk-averse Expected Utility (EU) decision makers with wealth-dependent utility functions may find themselves indifferent between accepting and rejecting an indivisible risky prospect. Bell (1988) showed that under these circumstances it is EU-enhancing for the decision maker to engage in a pre-decision side bet, accepting the indivisible risky prospect conditional upon winning the side bet. The side bet places the decision maker on the convex hull between the initial-wealth utility function and the utility function with risky-prospect-augmented wealth. We show that decision makers restricted to actuarially unfair side bets engage in a sequence of individually EU-enhancing side bets. This occurs because optimal stake size is modest for actuarially unfair side bets, whereby wealth remains within the interval of interim convexity upon losing the side bet. As optimal stake size falls strongly with each successive side-bet round, wealth remains within the interval of interim convexity. The EU enhancement conferred by each successive round is also strongly diminishing. Hence the side-bet sequence is eventually truncated when no further EU enhancement is available

Modeling changes in U.S. monetary policy

The monetary economics literature has highlighted four issues that are important in evaluating U.S. monetary policy since the late 1960s: (i) time variation in policy parameters, (ii) asymmetric preferences, (iii) revisions to economic data, and (iv) heteroskedasticity. This paper, for the first time, estimates a Taylor rule model that addresses these four issues simultaneously. Our findings suggest that U.S. monetary policy has experienced substantial changes in terms of both the response to inflation and to real economic activity, as well as changes in preferences. These changes cannot be captured adequately by a single structural break at the late 1970s, as has been commonly assumed in the literature, and play a non-trivial role in economic performance

A nonlinear analysis of the real exchange rate-consumption relationship

A variety of international macroeconomic models predict a relationship between the real exchange rate and consumption. The empirical evidence in favor of such a relationship is limited, the so-called Backus and Smith puzzle. In this paper, we extend the analysis to allow for nonlinear dynamics and volatility changes across exchange rate regimes. Our findings suggest that long-run relationships in line with standard international business cycle models do exist for many Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Further, Monte Carlo experiments illustrate that the nonlinear models can generate the Backus and Smith and the exchange rate disconnect puzzles. In this paper, we also contribute to the nonlinear real exchange rate literature by establishing a theoretical relationship between volatility and persistence. In accordance with the theoretical results, our empirical findings suggest that the increase in volatility in the post-Bretton Woods era is associated with relatively fast mean reversion of the real rate toward its equilibrium value

On the Contribution of the Markowitz Model of Utility to Explain Risky Choice in Experimental Research

It is becoming increasingly common to accept that heterogeneity of preferences is an appropriate approach to describe aggregate experimental data on risky choice. We propose a parametric form of utility consistent with Markowitz’s (1952) hypotheses as a useful model to consider. This value function exhibits the fourfold attitude to risk and can also capture different combinations of risk attitudes and higher-order preferences. Moreover, it can be combined with probability weighting functions as well as with other value functions as part of mixture models that capture heterogeneity of preferences. We employ data from three recent experimental studies and show that this model can contribute to the explanation of their findings

Wagering on more than one outcome in an event in Cumulative Prospect Theory and Rank Dependent Utility

In this letter we illustrate a previously unrecognised implication of Cumulative Prospect Theory and Rank Dependent Utility. We demonstrate that the representative individual in both models will often engage in wagering on more than one outcome in an event. For instance when playing European roulette the representative agents in CPT or RDU will always optimally wager on more than one outcome. This implication contrasts with expected utility models of wagering based on risk-seeking preferences due to the assumption of a convex segment of the utility function

An Explanation of Each-Way Wagers in Three Models Of Risky Choice

Punters may engage in betting on both a selection in an event to finish first or in one of the number of places, e.g. second, third or fourth. When the amounts staked with bookmakers at fixed odds on the win and place are equal, it is called an each-way bet. Each-way bets are apparently popular with punters but inconsistent with prominent models of wagering which assume gamblers are everywhere risk-seeking. In this note, we derive the conditions for win and place bets to be optimal in these three models of risky choice. The mathematical conditions for the each-way wager to be optimal, as opposed to a win and place wager with different stakes, are complicated and appear likely to occur rarely in practice. However, bettors obviously see the attraction in giving themselves two ways to bet on the one horse or two ways to win and betting each way. We suggest part of the ‘each-way’ betting attraction is that they are quick and easy to compute – a heuristic – to solve an otherwise complex betting strategy