Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2007 Special Articles On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices by Morgan Kelly Valuing Ireland’s Pension System by Shane Whelan

According to the preliminary estimates contained in the Quarterly National Accounts for December 2006, real GNP grew by 7.4 per cent last year. The corresponding figure for real GDP was 6 per cent. These figures imply that the economy continued to perform very strongly last year and are consistent with other positive outcomes. For example, 87,000 extra jobs were created in 2006 and the Exchequer recorded a surplus of over €2 billion

Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2008 Special Articles An Analysis of the Potential of the European Commission Business and Consumer Surveys for Macroeconomic Forecasting by Jean Goggin An Empirical Analysis of Development Cycles in the Dublin Office Market 1976-2007 by John McCartney

The forecasts in this Commentary, especially for 2009, illustrate how the Irish economy is in the midst of a contraction that is large by both historic and international comparisons. For 2009, we expect GNP to fall by 4.6 per cent in volume terms. Following an anticipated contraction of 2.6 per cent in 2008, the accumulated fall in output is dramatic

Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2008. With SPECIAL ARTICLE Ireland’s Innovation Performance: 1991 to 2005

The recent trend of downward revisions to our previous forecasts continues in this Commentary in the light of emerging data. The downward revisions this time are such that we are now forecasting a contraction in the economy in 2008, with both GNP and GDP falling by 0.4 per cent in real terms. Thus Ireland will experience a recession for the first time since 1983. For 2009, we expect an upturn with real GNP expected to grow by 1.9 per cent and real GDP expected to grow by 2 per cent

Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2008 Special Article The Decline of the Computer Hardware Sector: How Ireland Adjusted by Frank Barry and Chris Van Egeraat

It has been evident for some time that 2008 was likely to be a year of slow economic growth. The leading indicators for house building that emerged last year suggested that this sector would contract in 2008. The absence of an SSIA effect also pointed to lower consumption growth in 2008. In the more recent weeks and months, most of the international developments are such that they will have the effect of compounding the difficulties that the economy is facing this year. Among these developments are the appreciation of the euro, the slowing in economic growth in the United States and the on-going difficulties in international financial markets

Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2007 Special Articles Consumption and House Prices in Ireland by Vincent Hogan and Pat O’Sullivan Preserving Electricity Market Efficiency While Closing Ireland’s Capacity Gap by Seán Lyons, John Fitz Gerald, Niamh McCarthy, Laura Malaguzzi Valeri and Richard S.J. Tol Owner-Occupied Housing Costs and Bias in the Irish Consumer Price Index

One of the most noteworthy elements within this Commentary is the extent to which we have revised downwards our growth forecast for 2008, relative to our June Commentary. Whereas in the June Commentary, we forecast GNP growth in 2008 of 3.7 per cent, we are now forecasting GNP growth of 2.9 per cent. We have also revised down our growth forecast for 2007, although to a more modest degree; 4.4 per cent, down from the 4.8 per cent forecast of three months ago

Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2007 Special Articles The Earnings of Immigrants in Ireland: Results from the 2005 EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions by Alan Barrett and Yvonne McCarthy Hub Airport Slots, Market Exit and Irish Regional Economic Development by Sean D. Barrett Building for the Future? Interpreting an “Irish” Current Account Deficit by Martin O’Brien Irish Climate Policy for 2012: An Assessment by Richard S.J. Tol

Real growth in GNP is estimated to be 4.4 per cent in 2007. This means that 2007 has been another year of strong economic growth in Ireland. However, the growth will have been fuelled by a number of unsustainable components, including the effects of SSIAs and a highly stimulatory fiscal stance. Employment will register an impressive rate of growth in 2007, at almost 3 per cent

Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2010. RESEARCH BULLETIN 10/3

The two most significant announcements on economic matters since the last Commentary were the release of the Quarterly National Accounts for Q2 2010 on 23 September 2010 and the government’s statement on banking on 30 September. In the case of the former, the news was, at best, disappointing while in the case of the latter, it was horrendous. Both have impacted upon our view of the timing of potential recovery in the economy and on appropriate policy

Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2010. RESEARCH BULLETIN 10/4

The forecasts in this Commentary see GDP growing by 1½ per cent in real terms in 2011 and by 2¼ per cent in 2012. The corresponding figures for GNP are ¼ per cent in 2011 and 1½ per cent in 2012. Following the pattern of 2010, the growth which is envisaged for 2011 and 2012 is made up of a strong export performance together with further contractions in domestic demand

Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2010. RESEARCH BULLETIN 10/1

For 2010, we expect GNP to be essentially unchanged from its 2009 volume; the corresponding figure for GDP is -½ per cent. Underlying these annual figures is a quarterly profile in which positive growth emerges during the year but not at a pace to return the annual figure to positive territory. For 2011, we expect GNP to grow by 2¾ per cent and GDP to grow by 2½ per cent. While this return to growth is to be welcomed, it should be seen as a modest pace of growth

Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2009. RESEARCH BULLETIN 09/4

It is hard to overstate what a difficult year 2009 has been for the Irish economy. We now expect that the economy will contract by 10 per cent on a GNP basis this year, or 7¼ per cent in GDP terms. This follows a contraction of around 3 per cent in 2008, in both GNP and GDP terms. While these are stark figures, the true impact of the recession is probably better illuminated through the figures on employment and unemployment. We now expect that the average number employed will be 170,000 lower in 2009 relative to 2008. Comparing 2007 and 2009, that figure is likely to be 193,000. At the end of 2007, the rate of unemployment was just 4.6 per cent; at the end of 2009, it is 12.5 per cent