Meteorological signals in primary productivity at two mountain lakes

Fluctuations in primary productivity at two subalpine lakes reveal both meteorological and biological influences. At Castle Lake, California, large-scale climate events such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation affect total annual production and, combined with human fishing activity, modify the seasonal pattern of productivity. At Lake Tahoe, California-Nevada, local spring weather conditions modulate annual production and its seasonality by determining the depth of mixing and resulting internal nutrient load. Climatic conditions also contribute to deviations from the long-term trend in productivity by increasing the incidence of forest fires and through anomalous external nutrient loads during precipitation extremes. A 3-year cycle in productivity of as yet unknown origin has also been detected at Lake Tahoe

Projected Evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a Century of Climate Change

Background: Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings: We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California’s San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance: Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21 st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning t

Phytoplankton in the Upper San Francisco Estuary: Recent Biomass Trends, Their Causes, and Their Trophic Significance

Several pelagic fish populations in the upper San Francisco Estuary have recently declined to historically low abundances, prompting an interest in the status of their food supply. Previous studies have indicated that the primary food supply for metazoans in the Delta is phytoplankton productivity, and the long-term decrease in phytoplankton over the last few decades may very well play a role in the long-term decline of pelagic fish abundance. Regional phytoplankton biomass trends during 1996–2005, however, are positive in the Delta and neutral in Suisun Bay, the two major sub-regions of the upper estuary. The trend in Delta primary productivity is also positive. Changes in phytoplankton biomass and production during the last decade are therefore unlikely to be the cause of these more recent metazoan declines. The main source of interannual phytoplankton variability in the Delta during 1996–2005, including the upward trend, appears to have been freshwater flow variability and its effect on particle residence time. This conclusion is supported by trend analyses; the concurrence of these time trends at widely-separated stations; empirical models at the annual and monthly time scales; particle residence time estimates; and experience from other estuaries. A significant temperature increase was also noticed, at least partially independent of flow changes, but its net effect on the phytoplankton community is unknown because of differential effects on growth and loss processes. Phytoplankton biomass in Suisun Bay, in contrast to the Delta, did not increase during 1996–2005. Consistent with this observation, Suisun Bay phytoplankton exhibited relatively low responsiveness to flow variability. This behavior differs from earlier chlorophyll-flow relationships reported in the literature. The reason appears to be the invasion of Suisun Bay by a clam—Corbula amurensis—in 1986, which has since maintained the phytoplankton community mostly at low levels by vigorous filter-feeding. In the past, flows into Suisun Bay generally diluted the higher phytoplankton concentrations within the bay; now they bring in higher phytoplankton concentrations from upstream. The supply of phytoplankton carbon to Suisun Bay has always been dominated by allochthonous sources, at least for mean flow conditions. Now this dominance must be even more pronounced

Phytoplankton in the Upper San Francisco Estuary: Recent Biomass Trends, Their Causes, and Their Trophic Significance

Several pelagic fish populations in the upper San Francisco Estuary have recently declined to historically low abundances, prompting an interest in the status of their food supply. Previous studies have indicated that the primary food supply for metazoans in the Delta is phytoplankton productivity, and the long-term decrease in phytoplankton over the last few decades may very well play a role in the long-term decline of pelagic fish abundance. Regional phytoplankton biomass trends during 1996–2005, however, are positive in the Delta and neutral in Suisun Bay, the two major sub-regions of the upper estuary. The trend in Delta primary productivity is also positive. Changes in phytoplankton biomass and production during the last decade are therefore unlikely to be the cause of these more recent metazoan declines. The main source of interannual phytoplankton variability in the Delta during 1996–2005, including the upward trend, appears to have been freshwater flow variability and its effect on particle residence time. This conclusion is supported by trend analyses; the concurrence of these time trends at widely-separated stations; empirical models at the annual and monthly time scales; particle residence time estimates; and experience from other estuaries. A significant temperature increase was also noticed, at least partially independent of flow changes, but its net effect on the phytoplankton community is unknown because of differential effects on growth and loss processes. Phytoplankton biomass in Suisun Bay, in contrast to the Delta, did not increase during 1996–2005. Consistent with this observation, Suisun Bay phytoplankton exhibited relatively low responsiveness to flow variability. This behavior differs from earlier chlorophyll-flow relationships reported in the literature. The reason appears to be the invasion of Suisun Bay by a clam—Corbula amurensis—in 1986, which has since maintained the phytoplankton community mostly at low levels by vigorous filter-feeding. In the past, flows into Suisun Bay generally diluted the higher phytoplankton concentrations within the bay; now they bring in higher phytoplankton concentrations from upstream. The supply of phytoplankton carbon to Suisun Bay has always been dominated by allochthonous sources, at least for mean flow conditions. Now this dominance must be even more pronounced

Phytoplankton Regulation in a Eutrophic Tidal River (San Joaquin River, California)

As in many U.S. estuaries, the tidal San Joaquin River exhibits elevated organic matter production that interferes with beneficial uses of the river, including fish spawning and migration. High phytoplankton biomass in the tidal river is consequently a focus of management strategies. An unusually long and comprehensive monitoring dataset enabled identification of the determinants of phytoplankton biomass. Phytoplankton carrying capacity may be set by nitrogen or phosphorus during extreme drought years but, in most years, growth rate is light-limited. The size of the annual phytoplankton bloom depends primarily on river discharge during late spring and early summer, which determines the cumulative light exposure in transit downstream. The biomass-discharge relationship has shifted over the years, for reasons as yet unknown. Water diversions from the tidal San Joaquin River also affect residence time during passage downstream and may have resulted in more than a doubling of peak concentration in some years. Dam construction and accompanying changes in storage-and-release patterns from upstream reservoirs have caused a long-term decrease in the frequency of large blooms since the early 1980s, but projected climate change favors a future increase. Only large decreases in nonpoint nutrient sources will limit phytoplankton biomass reliably. Growth rate and concentration could increase if nonpoint source management decreases mineral suspensoid load but does not decrease nutrient load sufficiently. Small changes in water storage and release patterns due to dam operation have a major influence on peak phytoplankton biomass, and offer a near-term approach for management of nuisance algal blooms.</p

Phytoplankton Regulation in a Eutrophic Tidal River (San Joaquin River, California)

As in many U.S. estuaries, the tidal San Joaquin River exhibits elevated organic matter production that interferes with beneficial uses of the river, including fish spawning and migration. High phytoplankton biomass in the tidal river is consequently a focus of management strategies. An unusually long and comprehensive monitoring dataset enabled identification of the determinants of phytoplankton biomass. Phytoplankton carrying capacity may be set by nitrogen or phosphorus during extreme drought years but, in most years, growth rate is light-limited. The size of the annual phytoplankton bloom depends primarily on river discharge during late spring and early summer, which determines the cumulative light exposure in transit downstream. The biomass-discharge relationship has shifted over the years, for reasons as yet unknown. Water diversions from the tidal San Joaquin River also affect residence time during passage downstream and may have resulted in more than a doubling of peak concentration in some years. Dam construction and accompanying changes in storage-and-release patterns from upstream reservoirs have caused a long-term decrease in the frequency of large blooms since the early 1980s, but projected climate change favors a future increase. Only large decreases in nonpoint nutrient sources will limit phytoplankton biomass reliably. Growth rate and concentration could increase if nonpoint source management decreases mineral suspensoid load but does not decrease nutrient load sufficiently. Small changes in water storage and release patterns due to dam operation have a major influence on peak phytoplankton biomass, and offer a near-term approach for management of nuisance algal blooms