Forecasting U.S. Trade in Services

This paper provides a set of forecasts of United States international trade in services, both at the aggregate level and for four subcategories. These sectors are: travel, which is mostly tourist expenditures; passenger fares, which is mostly passenger air transportation; transportation, other than passenger transportation; and other private services, including education, financial services, insurance, telecommunications, and business, professional and technical services. A forecasting model is constructed and estimated, based on conventional economic forces of supply and demand, dependent on cost variables and income variables as well as relative prices. For forecasting purposes, these variables are taken from the Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model of the U.S. Economy, a macroeconomic forecasting model with forecasts provided regularly by the University of Michigan Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics. The equations of the services trade model are reported and discussed, and the performance of the estimated equations is evaluated. The quarterly forecast paths are provided for both aggregate and sectoral services trade, including exports and imports, through the end of 2001. Results indicate that imports will continue to rise over the forecast period, while exports, after remaining nearly stationary for several quarters in some sectors in 1999, will resume their rise thereafter. This forecasting work is to be continued, and it is suggested, in addition, that future research would be useful to explore the determinants of the production and sales of foreign services affiliates of U.S. parent companies.Services, International Trade

An Approach for Quantitatively Balancing Methylmercury Risk and Omega-3 Benefit in Fish Consumption Advisories

Background: Nearly all fish consumption advisories for methylmercury (MeHg) are based only on risk. There is a need to also address benefits, especially those from polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), in neurodevelopmental function and cardiovascular health. However, because MeHg and PUFA generally act on these same end points, disentangling risk and benefit is challenging

Comparison of Indoor Mercury Vapor in Common Areas of Residential Buildings with Outdoor Levels in a Community Where Mercury Is Used for Cultural Purposes

Elemental mercury has been imbued with magical properties for millennia, and various cultures use elemental mercury in a variety of superstitious and cultural practices, raising health concerns for users and residents in buildings where it is used. As a first step in assessing this phenomenon, we compared mercury vapor concentration in common areas of residential buildings versus outdoor air, in two New Jersey cities where mercury is available and is used in cultural practices. We measured mercury using a portable atomic absorption spectrometer capable of quantitative measurement from 2 ng/m(3) mercury vapor. We evaluated the interior hallways in 34 multifamily buildings and the vestibule in an additional 33 buildings. Outdoor mercury vapor averaged 5 ng/m(3); indoor mercury was significantly higher (mean 25 ng/m(3); p < 0.001); 21% of buildings had mean mercury vapor concentration in hallways that exceeded the 95th percentile of outdoor mercury vapor concentration (17 ng/m(3)), whereas 35% of buildings had a maximum mercury vapor concentration that exceeded the 95th percentile of outdoor mercury concentration. The highest indoor average mercury vapor concentration was 299 ng/m(3), and the maximum point concentration was 2,022 ng/m(3). In some instances, we were able to locate the source, but we could not specifically attribute the elevated levels of mercury vapor to cultural use or other specific mercury releases. However, these findings provide sufficient evidence of indoor mercury source(s) to warrant further investigation

67/09/27 Brief of American Civil Liberties Union, American Civil Liberties Union of Ohio, and New York Civil Liberties Union, Amici Curiae

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), ACLU of New York and New York Civil Liberties Union\u27s Amici Curiae Brief arguing against the stop-and-frisk practice as seen in Terry v. Ohio and Chilton v. Ohio, Peters v. New York, and Sibron v. New York

67/09/27 Brief of American Civil Liberties Union, American Civil Liberties Union of Ohio, and New York Civil Liberties Union, Amici Curiae

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), ACLU of New York and New York Civil Liberties Union\u27s Amici Curiae Brief arguing against the stop-and-frisk practice as seen in Terry v. Ohio and Chilton v. Ohio, Peters v. New York, and Sibron v. New York

Optical Structure and Proper-Motion Age of the Oxygen-rich Supernova Remnant 1E 0102-7219 in the Small Magellanic Cloud

We present new optical emission-line images of the young SNR 1E 0102-7219 (E0102) in the SMC obtained with the HST Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS). E0102 is a member of the oxygen-rich class of SNRs showing strong oxygen, neon , and other metal-line emissions in its optical and X-ray spectra, and an absence of H and He. The progenitor of E0102 may have been a Wolf-Rayet star that underwent considerable mass loss prior to exploding as a Type Ib/c or IIL/b SN. The ejecta in this SNR are fast-moving (V > 1000 km/s) and emit as they are compressed and heated in the reverse shock. In 2003, we obtained optical [O III], H-alpha, and continuum images with the ACS Wide Field Camera. The [O III] image captures the full velocity range of the ejecta, and shows considerable high-velocity emission projected in the middle of the SNR that was Doppler-shifted out of the narrow F502N bandpass of a previous Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2 image from 1995. Using these two epochs separated by ~8.5 years, we measure the transverse expansion of the ejecta around the outer rim in this SNR for the first time at visible wavelengths. From proper-motion measurements of 12 ejecta filaments, we estimate a mean expansion velocity for the bright ejecta of ~2000 km/s and an inferred kinematic age for the SNR of \~2050 +/- 600 years. The age we derive from HST data is about twice that inferred by Hughes et al.(2000) from X-ray data, though our 1-sigma error bars overlap. Our proper-motion age is consistent with an independent optical kinematic age derived by Eriksen et al.(2003) using spatially resolved [O III] radial-velocity data. We derive an expansion center that lies very close to X-ray and radio hotspots, which could indicate the presence of a compact remnant (neutron star or black hole).Comment: 28 pages, 8 figures. Accepted to the Astrophysical Journal, to appear in 20 April 2006 issue. Full resolution figures are posted at: http://stevenf.asu.edu/figure