The Vaiont landslide : re-assessment of the evidence leads to rejection of the consensus

There appears to be a clear general consensus in the literature regarding four critical issues that define the problem of the October 1963 Vaiont landslide and its behaviour that are central to the disaster: (1) the 1963 failure was a reactivation of an ancient landslide; (2) failure took place along thin clay seams (already at residual strength); (3) the sliding surface had a ‘chair’ shape with a (sub)horizontal base; and (4) failure was triggered by inundation of the toe of the slide mass by rising reservoir levels. The key to understanding the Vaiont landslide is the failure surface geometry, which was controlled by the structural geology. It now appears that the so-called chair structure (that was assumed to define the shape of the failure surface) does not exist, and without it, the first consensual point is untenable, and the fourth may not contain the whole truth. We have systematically re-examined the published evidence and undertaken our own new research in order to test the logical and geotechnical validity of the four elements of the consensus. Glacial processes can account for the pre-failure morphology of the landslide site; the clay seams must therefore have been at peak shear strength as there was no ancient landslide. Tectonic processes can account for the failure surface geometry, which does not have a ‘chair’ shape, as well as small-scale structures; and rainfall appears to have been an essential element in the initiation and development of the landslide. Our findings largely contradict the consensus position and thus form the basis of a new overarching hypothesis for the landslide that should account for all of the observed and known features, events and data

Should history change the way we think about populism?

This paper asks whether history should change the way in which economists and economic historians think about populism. We use Müller's definition, according to which populism is ‘an exclusionary form of identity politics, which is why it poses a threat to democracy’. We make three historical arguments. First, late-nineteenth-century US Populists were not populist. Second, there is no necessary relationship between populism and anti-globalization sentiment. Third, economists have sometimes been on the wrong side of important policy debates involving opponents rightly or wrongly described as populist. History encourages us to avoid an overly simplistic view of populism and its correlates.Open access funding provided by IReLNYUAD Social Science Facult

Four great Asian trade collapses

This paper introduces a new dataset of commodity-specific, bilateral import data for four large Asian economies in the interwar period: China, the Dutch East Indies, India and Japan. It uses these data to describe the interwar trade collapses in the economies concerned. These resembled the post-2008 Great Trade Collapse in some respects but not in others: they occurred along the intensive margin, imports of cars were particularly badly affected, and imports of durable goods fell by more than those of non-durables, except in China and India which were rapidly industrialising. On the other hand the import declines were geographically imbalanced, while prices were more important than quantities in driving the overall collapse

New, simplified and improved interpretation of the Vaiont landslide mechanics

Both the occurrence and behaviour of the Vaiont landslide have not been satisfactorily explained previously because of difficulties arising from the assumption that the failure surface was ‘chair’ shaped. It is now known that there was no ‘chair’, which means that the 1963 landslide could not have been a reactivated ancient landslide because the residual strength of the clay interbeds would have been insufficient for stability prior to 1963. Furthermore, the moderately translational geometry reduces the influence of reservoir-induced groundwater and hence of submergence. Standard stability analyses now show that prior to 1960, the average shear strength must have significantly exceeded the peak shear strength of the clay interbeds known to have formed the majority of the failure surface. Three-dimensional stability analyses confirm these results and show that at the time of the first significant movements in 1960, the rising reservoir level had a negligible effect on the Factor of Safety. According to these results, the Vaiont landslide was most likely initiated by pore water pressures associated with transient rainfall-induced ‘perched’ groundwater above the clay layers, in combination with a smaller than hitherto assumed effect of reservoir impounding, then developed by brittle crack propagation within the clay beds, thus displaying progressive failure. Further, very heavy rainfall accelerated the process, possibly due to reservoir-induced groundwater impeding drainage of the rainwater, until the limestone beds at the northeast margin failed. With the shear strength suddenly reduced to residual throughout, the entire mass was released and was able to accelerate as observed

The political economy of the interwar years

This thesis is a collection of essays on the political economy of the interwar years. It aims to address two of the most prominent and characteristic aspects of the interwar international economy; the break-up of the Gold Standard system and the rise of trade protectionism. I argue that extensions to the franchise are crucial to understanding both of these phenomena. Using evidence based on macro-level panel data analysis, micro-level public opinion surveys as well as numerous qualitative sources, I construct an argument that stresses the importance of these changes in voting rights to economic policy decisions; changes that can help explain the unusual nature of the interwar international economy. The effect of the extended franchise will not be examined in isolation however, with the influence of a number of other important aspects of the political and economic environment also taken into consideration. As arguably the most interesting and novel result of these analyses is the suggested effect of the granting of voting rights to women, the voting preferences of women are examined more closely in an additional chapter using a unique record of women’s voting from Weimar Germany. This allows for the difference between men and women’s actual voting preferences to be explored, something that is usually impossible due to the use of secret ballots. The fact that the separation of votes by gender occurred during one of the most important periods in modern history gives the analysis an even greater significance

When Britain turned inward: Protection and the shift towards Empire in Interwar Britain

International trade became much less multilateral during the 1930s. Previous studies, looking at aggregate trade flows, have argued that discriminatory trade policies had comparatively little to do with this. Using highly disaggregated information on the UK's imports and trade policies, we find that policy can explain the majority of Britain's shift towards Imperial imports in the 1930s. Trade policy mattered, a lot