The Euro: only for the agile

Alan Ahearne and Jean Pisani-Ferry explore the implications of economic divergence in the euro area for policy makers, as well as the discipline required to be part of the single currency. From this analysis they derive policy recommendations, both for the policies and monitoring of existing euro area members and for the selection of those of the new Member States that may adopt the euro in the next years.

Zombie Firms and Economic Stagnation in Japan

It is often claimed that one contributing factor to Japan's weak economic performance over the past decade is that Japanese banks have continued to provide financial support for highly inefficient, debt-ridden companies, commonly referred to as "zombie" firms. Such poor banking practices in turn prevent more productive companies from gaining market share, strangling a potentially important source of productivity gains for the overall economy. To explore further the zombie-firm hypothesis, we use industry- and firm-level Japanese data and find evidence that productivity growth is low in industries reputed to have heavy concentrations of zombie firms. We also find that the reallocation of market share is going in the wrong direction in these industries, adding to already weak productivity performance. In addition, we find evidence that financial support from Japanese banks may have played a role in sustaining this perverse reallocation of market share.Productivity, banking system, creative destruction

European perspectives on global imbalances

Alan Ahearne and Jürgen von Hagen explore the options European policy makers have in the context of global current account imbalances. Some Europeans are concerned that a disproportionately large burden of adjustment will fall on Europe when the European economy is not flexible enough to cope with a substantial appreciation of the euro. This paper was prepared for the Asia Europe Economic Forum conference.

Global current account imbalances: how to manage the risk for Europe

Alan Ahearne and Jürgen von Hagen examine one of the most alarming global economic developments in recent years- the evolution of global current account imbalances and its implications for European policy.

Ireland's great depression

We argue that Ireland experienced a great depression in the 1980s comparable in severity to the better known and more studied depression episodes of the interwar period. Using the business cycle accounting framework of Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2005), we examine the factors that lead to the depression and the subsequent recovery in the 1990s. We calculate efficiency, labor, investment and government wedges, and evaluate the contribution of each to the downturn and subsequent recovery. We find that the efficiency wedge on its own can account for a significant portion of the downturn, but predicts a stronger recovery in output. The labor wedge also helps account for what happened during the depression episode. We also find that the investment wedge played no role in the depression.

Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area (draft version)

The dispersion in current account balances among countries in the euro area has widened markedly over the past decade-and-a-half, and especially since 1999. We decompose current account positions for euro area countries into intra-euro-area balances and extra-euroarea balances and examine the determinants of these balances. Regarding intra-euro-area balances, we present evidence that capital tends to flow from high-income euro area economies to low-income euro area economies. These flows have increased since the creation of the single currency in Europe.We construct a novel data set regarding extra-euro-area balances. The data set contains, for the euro area and the most important member economies, exports and imports to and from the 10 respective most important trade partners outside the euro area. This allows us to study the determinants of the extra-euro current account and its interaction with intra-euro area trade balances. We estimate a model of the trade balance of the euro area and individual euro-area countries with the rest of the world. We find that a real appreciation of the euro against the currencies of its main trading partners appears to have a substantial effect on the euro area’s net exports in the long run, though the immediate effect is small. Our estimates for individual countries suggest that the adjustment to a real appreciation of the euro would not be equally distributed across euro-area countries. In particular, Germany would bear the largest share of the adjustment, while the other large euro-area economies would be relatively unaffected. Finally, we find that the introduction of the euro seems to have changed the dynamics of trade balance adjustment in three of the larger euro-area economies.global imbalances, EMU, real exchange rates, trade balances

The EU and the Governance of Globalisation. Bruegel Working Papers, 2006/02, September 2006

Bruegel Scholars Alan Ahearne, Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir and Nicolas Véron contributed this paper to the project Globalisation Challenges for Europe and Finland organised for the secretariat of the Economic Council of Finland. The project is part of Finland's EU presidency programme and its objective is to add momentum to the discussion in the European Union on golbalisation, Europe's competitiveness policy and the Lisbon Strategy

China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?

We explore whether increases in China’s exports reduce exports of other emerging Asian economies. We find that correlations between Chinese export growth and that of other emerging Asian economies are actually positive (though often not significantly so), even after controlling for the effects of income growth of trading partners and real effective exchange rates. We also present results from a VAR estimation of aggregate trade equations on the relative importance of foreign income and exchange rates in the determination of Asian export growth. An important finding is that, while exchange rates do matter for export performance, the income growth of trading partners matters even more. In addition, we examine specific products and find evidence that a considerable shifting of trade patterns is taking place, consistent with a ‘flying geese’ pattern in which China and ASEAN-4 move into the product space vacated by the NIEs. Overall, our results suggest that China and emerging Asia are both comrades and competitors. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, or the International Monetary Fund.Exports ; Foreign exchange rates ; Trade ; Economic conditions - China ; Exports - China

A tail of two countries

The outlook for two of the euro areaÂ?s best performing economies to date, Ireland and Spain, has darkened dramatically recently amid severe downturns in housing markets. What do these countriesÂ? experiences tell us about the functioning of EMU? BruegelÂ?s new policy brief Â?A Tail of Two CountriesÂ? examines the behaviour of housing markets in Ireland and Spain during EMU and considers what features and policies may have facilitated the overheating of housing markets in these countries. It also discusses the role of large migration flows in spurring growth in housing.

Countering contagion: Does China's experience offer a blueprint?

China did not succumb to the Asian crisis of 1997-99, despite two apparent sources of vulnerability: a weak financial system and increased export competition from the Asian crisis economies. This article argues that both sources of vulnerability were more apparent than real. China's experience (especially its use of capital controls) does not offer a blueprint for other countries, because other countries would not want to replicate China's inefficient, non-market-oriented financial system.Banks and banking - China ; Economic conditions - China ; China