Topics in empirical political economy

This work focuses on misinformation and on voters’ behaviour and addresses questions that have direct implication for policy. Chapter 1: How does media coverage of research articles shape their retraction process? Flawed research can be harmful both within and outside of academia. The media can play an important role in drawing broader attention to research, but may also ensure that research, once retracted, ceases to feature in popular discourse. Yet, there is little evidence on whether media reporting influences the retraction process and authors’ careers. This chapter shows that the salience of a research article at publication amplifies the impact of a later retraction on its citations and the research output of its authors. Chapter 2: What is the relationship between voters’ participation, opinion polls, and the electoral system? A central challenge for social scientists consists in explaining why people vote and what are the consequences of their behaviour. In this chapter I study one of the most contested drivers of voters’ participation which is the role of opinion polls. Voters may use polls information when deciding whether or not to vote, but the relevance of this information may depend on the electoral system. Looking at UK general elections I find evidence that polls predictions interact with the recent local electoral preferences of a constituency, and significantly impact voters’ participation, concentration of vote shares, and local parties’ performances. Chapter 3: What qualifies populist attitudes? Can we infer individual associations from aggregate data? Early analyses of the 2016 Brexit referendum used region-level data or small samples based on polling data. The former might be subject to ecological fallacy and the latter might suffer from small-sample bias. Using individual-level data on thousands of respondents in Understanding Society, we find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity, low educational attainment, infrequent use of smartphones and the internet, receiving benefits, adverse health and low life satisfaction. These results coincide with corresponding patterns at the aggregate level of voting areas. We therefore do not find evidence of ecological fallacy

Opinion polls, turnout and the demand for safe seats

Do opinion polls sway turnout and shape political competition in majoritarian systems? Can they strengthen the persistence of safe seats? Analysing national opinion polls during UK general elections and the perceived safeness of constituencies, we find that pre-election polls significantly affect voter turnout. Non-competitive elections predicted by national polls suppress turnout, especially in areas with low perceived electoral competition. This reinforces the advantage of trailing parties in their strongholds, potentially fuelling party demand for safe seats that may give rise to demands for gerrymandering. This can exacerbate spatial polarization of the electoral landscape, with implications for governance regarding opinion polling

Electoral accountability and local support for national policies

We study the provision of information by local governments that supports individual compliance with nationwide regulation, and how this provision relates to the electoral process. We use information about individual mobility (compliance with the lockdown) and Facebook posts by Italian local governments during the Covid 19 pandemic. We show that in municipalities where mayors were up for re-election, local governments provided significantly more covid-related information. This information caused a significant decrease in mobility and excess mortality. However, these effects seem to arise only in the northern regions of the country, where the impact of the pandemic was more severe

The blurring of corporate investor nationality and complex ownership

Recent years have seen a significant increase in complexity of multinational enterprises (MNEs) ownership structures. Complex corporate structures raise concerns on the effectiveness of national and international investment policies, based on the notion of investors’ nationality. This motivates this research effort aimed at analysing the ownership structures of some 700 thousand foreign affiliates (FAs). A new methodology, the bottom-up approach, is introduced. The main objective is to empirically map the "shareholder space" of FAs, along the vertical dimension, from the direct shareholders to the ultimate owners. We find that FAs are often part of transnational investment chains; more than 40% of foreign affiliates have direct and ultimate shareholders in different jurisdictions ("double or multiple passports"). Based on shareholders’ nationality, we then propose and empirically analyse the salient features of four main archetypes of FAs ownership structure: plain foreign, conduit structures, round-tripping and domestic hubs. Each poses specific challenges to the policy-maker

Trust in scientists and their role in society across 67 countries

Scientific information is crucial for evidence-based decision-making. Public trust in science can help decision-makers act based on the best available evidence, especially during crises such as climate change or the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in recent years the epistemic authority of science has been challenged, causing concerns about low public trust in scientists. Here we interrogated these concerns with a pre-registered 67-country survey of 71,417 respondents on all inhabited continents and find that in most countries, a majority of the public trust scientists and think that scientists should be more engaged in policymaking. We further show that there is a discrepancy between the public’s perceived and desired priorities of scientific research. Moreover, we find variations between and within countries, which we explain with individual-and country-level variables,including political orientation. While these results do not show widespread lack of trust in scientists, we cannot discount the concern that lack of trust in scientists by even a small minority may affect considerations of scientific evidence in policymaking. These findings have implications for scientists and policymakers seeking to maintain and increase trust in scientists

Trust in scientists and their role in society across 67 countries

Scientific information is crucial for evidence-based decision-making. Public trust in science can help decision-makers act based on the best available evidence, especially during crises such as climate change or the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in recent years the epistemic authority of science has been challenged, causing concerns about low public trust in scientists. Here we interrogated these concerns with a pre-registered 67-country survey of 71,417 respondents on all inhabited continents and find that in most countries, a majority of the public trust scientists and think that scientists should be more engaged in policymaking. We further show that there is a discrepancy between the public’s perceived and desired priorities of scientific research. Moreover, we find variations between and within countries, which we explain with individual-and country-level variables,including political orientation. While these results do not show widespread lack of trust in scientists, we cannot discount the concern that lack of trust in scientists by even a small minority may affect considerations of scientific evidence in policymaking. These findings have implications for scientists and policymakers seeking to maintain and increase trust in scientists