Wild Poliovirus Type 1 in Oman: A re-emerging threat that requires urgent, targeted and strategic preparedness

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Successes and Challenges of HIV/AIDS Program in Oman: 1984–2015

We sought to provide an epidemiological situation of HIV in Oman and assess the ongoing impact of the program established in 1987 using data collected from national health reports between 1984 and 2015. Since the report of the first AIDS case in Oman in 1984, the numbers have steadily increased. Eighty percent of the cases were reported between 1996 and 2015. By the end of 2015, there were 2879 people known to be living with HIV (PLHIV) giving a prevalence of < 1%. More males were affected than females (p < 0.001); 69.7% of affected males and 73.1% of females were aged 20–49 years. The highest HIV rate was in the Musandam governorate. Most (66.8%) new HIV infections were caused via unprotected sex, 8.3% from mother-to-child, 4.3% by intravenous drug abuse, 3.2% via blood transfusion, and 17.4% by unknown causes. PLHIV on antiretroviral drug therapy (ART) increased 57.0% by the end of 2015 (p < 0.0001). A 23.0% reduction in mortality due to HIV was noted (p < 0.0001). Maternal-to-child transmission per 100000 live births were 11, 9, 17, 10, 6, and 4 from 2009 to 2014, respectively. In 2015, 67.6% of PLHIV knew their HIV status, 65.0% were on ART, and 48.0% achieved virological suppression. There is an urgent need to focus on the quality and coverage of treatment, as well as care and support to HIV patients with special attention to high-risk groups

Dengue Fever: An Emerging Disease in Oman Requiring Urgent Public Health Interventions

Dengue, the most widespread mosquito-borne viral infection in humans, is an emerging public health problem in countries of the Eastern Mediterranean region threatening national, regional, and global health security. The disease is endemic in more than 128 countries in the African, Americas, Eastern Mediterranean, Southeast Asian, and the Western Pacific regions with estimates of 390 million cases representing 17% of the global burden of infectious diseases in 2013

Monkeypox Outbreak: More queries posed as cases globally soar

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Viral etiology, seasonality and severity of hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory infections in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 2007-2014.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about the role of viral respiratory pathogens in the etiology, seasonality or severity of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. METHODS: Sentinel surveillance for SARI was conducted from December 2007 through February 2014 at 20 hospitals in Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Qatar and Yemen. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were collected from hospitalized patients meeting SARI case definitions and were analyzed for infection with influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), adenovirus (AdV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and human parainfluenza virus types 1-3 (hPIV1-3). We analyzed surveillance data to calculate positivity rates for viral respiratory pathogens, describe the seasonality of those pathogens and determine which pathogens were responsible for more severe outcomes requiring ventilation and/or intensive care and/or resulting in death. RESULTS: At least one viral respiratory pathogen was detected in 8,753/28,508 (30.7%) samples tested for at least one pathogen and 3,497/9,315 (37.5%) of samples tested for all pathogens-influenza in 3,345/28,438 (11.8%), RSV in 3,942/24,503 (16.1%), AdV in 923/9,402 (9.8%), hMPV in 617/9,384 (6.6%), hPIV1 in 159/9,402 (1.7%), hPIV2 in 85/9,402 (0.9%) and hPIV3 in 365/9,402 (3.9%). Multiple pathogens were identified in 501/9,316 (5.4%) participants tested for all pathogens. Monthly variation, indicating seasonal differences in levels of infection, was observed for all pathogens. Participants with hMPV infections and participants less than five years of age were significantly less likely than participants not infected with hMPV and those older than five years of age, respectively, to experience a severe outcome, while participants with a pre-existing chronic disease were at increased risk of a severe outcome, compared to those with no reported pre-existing chronic disease. CONCLUSIONS: Viral respiratory pathogens are common among SARI patients in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Ongoing surveillance is important to monitor changes in the etiology, seasonality and severity of pathogens of interest

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis in the Middle Eastern and North African pediatric population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) is the most common cause of severe childhood diarrhea worldwide. Objectives were to estimate the burden of RVGE among children less than five years old in the Middle East (Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, UAE, Yemen), North Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia) and Turkey.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A comprehensive literature search was conducted in major databases on the epidemiology and burden of rotavirus among children less than five years old between 1999 and 2009. Data from each country was extracted and compared.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The search identified 43 studies. RVGE was identified in 16-61% of all cases of acute gastroenteritis, with a peak in the winter. RVGE-related hospitalization rates ranged from 14% to 45%, compared to 14%-28% for non-RVGE. Annually, RVGE caused up to 112 fatalities per 100,000 in certain countries in the region. Hospitalization costs ranged from $1.8 to$4.6 million annually, depending on the country. The most recent literature available showed that G1P[8] was the most prevalent genotype combination in 8 countries (range 23%-56%). G2P[4] was most prevalent in 4 countries (26%-48%). G9P[8] and G4P[8] were also frequently detected.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>RVGE is a common disease associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and economic burden. Given the variety and diverse rotavirus types in the region, use of a vaccine with broad and consistent serotype coverage would be important to help decrease the burden of RVGE in the Middle East and North Africa.</p